HORSEPLOP.COM
General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: dougie on May 18, 2025, 09:12:17 PM
-
From what the connections are saying, it looks like Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza, Rodriguez, and Gosger will be heading to the Belmont Stakes. In my humble opinion, I don't expect more than 8 or 9 starters.
-
From what the connections are saying, it looks like Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza, Rodriguez, and Gosger will be heading to the Belmont Stakes. In my humble opinion, I don't expect more than 8 or 9 starters.
8 or 9 sounds about right, but with it being at Saratoga and only a mile and a quarter, who knows. I would love to see the Sovereignty Journalism rematch.
-
Ditto! tmbz1
-
Based on the stretch run of the Preakness I would pick Journalism because he seemed to get stronger at the end.
Gosger will run out of gas again.
-
8 or 9 sounds about right, but with it being at Saratoga and only a mile and a quarter, who knows. I would love to see the Sovereignty Journalism rematch.
McCarthy said he is going as long as the horse is ok
-
McCarthy seems to be saying they are "planning" to go, WHEN HE SEES WHERE the horse is at AND AS LONG AS the horse is OK. That makes perfect sense. The guy seems like a good horseman. I read somewhere he came up under Todd Pletcher and spent over a decade as Todd's head assistant trainer.
It's been said the fittest horse wins the Derby, the fastest horses wins the Preakness, and the toughest horse wins the Belmont. I guess with the Belmont not being run on Big Sandy, and it being a shorter race, maybe that's not the case this year, LOL. The Belmont was always this enigmatic, X factor kind of race because of the track, the distance, and the horses (which ones ran in the two previous TC races, who didn't, and so on). All everyone wants to know is, are those two races in two weeks going to take something out of Journalism? Especially after what he just did! What a stretch drive and effort this horse put forth! Before Saturday, I would have said Sovereignty is the horse to beat. Rested and ready to go! Now I saw what Journalism did and say, what kind of horse is this!?!?!? But those two races? IDK. I hope it will be another exciting race!
-
Seeing Journalism Sat shows just how impressive it was for Sovereignty to blow by his like he did in the Derby.
It wouldn't be a popular decision but if it were my horse, I wouldn't race Journalism again this soon if they
want a horse left for the still numerous opportunities left this season.
-
Excellent point.
-
One race really has nothing to do with the other. Journalism won from an almost impossible spot in the Preakness, but he was aided by the front runner running out of gas.
-
I absolutely admired and respected Mott for making this recommendation and decision.
-
I think the decision was easier since it had been done several times in recent years, plus he's known as a very nice guy and conservative trainer.
-
It's been said that Mott is always about the horse first. And only.
-
It's been said that Mott is always about the horse first. And only.
I don't think it was Mott's choice to send Cigar to DelMar for The Pacific Classic(which snapped his winning streak)-it was most likely the owners
Jerry Bailey admitted it was his fault being too close to a very hot pace
Mott is a HOF trainer and none of us are in any position to question it
I say Journalism goes to The Belmont and goes off favored vs Sovreignty--and beats him
-
I would be surprised if Journalism went to the Belmont. That said, I'll be betting Baeza.
-
One race really has nothing to do with the other. Journalism won from an almost impossible spot in the Preakness, but he was aided by the front runner running out of gas.
I don't know. That head to head battle in the Derby, and then with what Journalism did in the Preakness, might say a little something about what kind of horse Sovereignty is.
I never criticize the connections of a horse for managing the horse the way they see fit. They put their money up, it's up to them how to manage the horse.
-
Grandstand Handicapper.....I agree with you. I do think that both of them will be running in the Belmont Stakes. If they do, it will be great for racing.
-
I am not a t-bred guy. But I hear all day long about "key" races, horses, whatever. IDK if that holds true or not. But I can see it.
Too bad the race isn't at Belmont and at a mile and a half.
-
I always feel when a horse is making a wide move like Journalism was in the Derby, the horse following him actually has the better trip because he's kind of drafting off the other horse. Would have been interesting to see what would have happened had the trips been reversed.
-
While it makes sense, I always found it ironic that generically speaking, between harness and t-breds, "first over" vs. "stalking" is kind of like "worst and "ideal" so to speak.
-
Do the t-breds really "draft" or get cover so to speak? Totally different racing obviously. I always heard that with the t-breds, generally, the jockey and most often the horse don't want to be directly behind the horse in front of them, and would rather be just outside them in the clear so to speak.
-
I always felt the horse following the one making the 3 wide move first is at an advantage because he's being carried into the race by the other horse who has probably used up more energy making that move, so the one following is the fresher horse. Is it drafting, not really, but I'd rather be the one following than making the move first. This also applies to harness racing.
-
While it makes sense, I always found it ironic that generically speaking, between harness and t-breds, "first over" vs. "stalking" is kind of like "worst and "ideal" so to speak.
What I hate in T-Breds is when the horse I cold punched for 2nd is pressing the pace of the odds-on favorite instead of sitting 2nd and waiting for the stretch to move. Most times it winds up costing them second. Except for the top jockeys my opinion of most jockeys is they're not too bright. Why get in a speed duel with a longshot and burn your horse up yet it happens all the time.
-
Speed duel, yes, obviously. I was speaking to a normal pace. I get it though. Like I said, totally different racing, and horses.
-
Speed duel, yes, obviously. I was speaking to a normal pace. I get it though. Like I said, totally different racing, and horses.
Another thing that stupid jockeys do particularly in a sprint. If their horse breaks poorly they rush up to press the pace in the fastest quarter of the race using up all their energy before fading. They would be alot smarter to be patient and try to close in the final 1/4 mile, which is the slowest quarter of the race in sprints.
-
Sovereignty deserves to be a big favorite....
-
Another thing that stupid jockeys do particularly in a sprint. If their horse breaks poorly they rush up to press the pace in the fastest quarter of the race using up all their energy before fading. They would be alot smarter to be patient and try to close in the final 1/4 mile, which is the slowest quarter of the race in sprints.
Maybe you should ride? ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
-
Do the t-breds really "draft" or get cover so to speak? Totally different racing obviously. I always heard that with the t-breds, generally, the jockey and most often the horse don't want to be directly behind the horse in front of them, and would rather be just outside them in the clear so to speak.
I have heard jockeys comment that tbreds don't like kickback in their face, so the jockeys try to avoid being directly behind another horse.
-
Sovereignty deserves to be a big favorite....
he wont even be the favorite-let alone a big one
-
He will be when Journalism sits out.
-
he wont even be the favorite-let alone a big one
Disagree
-
Mott is a great trainer Sovereignty will be tough.
-
He will be when Journalism sits out.
that would make him a slight fave over Baeza
I hope Journalism runs
-
Maybe you should ride? ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
I'm too old and don't speak Spanish.
-
Sovereignty deserves to be a big favorite....
If they both run, I think Journalism will still be favored over Sovereignty.
-
Journalism has shipped to Saratoga, Belmont decision to be made in time. While it would be great for the sport, if he were my horse, I'd point for the Travers.
-
Mott is a great trainer Sovereignty will be tough.
No doubt tmbz1 tmbz1
-
Interesting that Sovereignty won't be the favorite, even if Journalism runs. I just figured the majority of the pool are novices at best. I don't think the majority of the pool is smarty money. If the general public is the majority of the pool, I think they will see the Derby line, where one beats the other, the Preakness line, where one won and the other sat out, and they make Mott's horse the favorite. Guess not.
If both go, I hope they are both 100% on their game and that it's a great race. Journalism will be on 3 races in 5 weeks, and that last one.....does he stay the same, move forward, or regress. Get your money and bet your pick!
-
Interesting that Sovereignty won't be the favorite, even if Journalism runs. I just figured the majority of the pool are novices at best. I don't think the majority of the pool is smarty money. If the general public is the majority of the pool, I think they will see the Derby line, where one beats the other, the Preakness line, where one won and the other sat out, and they make Mott's horse the favorite. Guess not.
If both go, I hope they are both 100% on their game and that it's a great race. Journalism will be on 3 races in 5 weeks, and that last one.....does he stay the same, move forward, or regress. Get your money and bet your pick!
Sovereignty will and should be the favorite
-
Sovereignty will and should be the favorite
I would have thought so. I guess we'll see.
-
I would have thought so. I guess we'll see.
tmbz1 tmbz1
-
tmbz1 tmbz1
Still think Journalism will be the favorite based more on his win in the Preakness than his loss in the Derby. He's been the favorite in just about all his lifetime starts where Soveignty hasn't
-
Latest reports on Horse Racing Nation tells us that both Journalism and Sovereignty are both heading to the Belmont along with Baeza, Gosger, Heart Of Honor, Hill Road, and Rodriguez. What other horse in this race is going to press the speed of Gosger? And if you were owner/trainer of Heart Of Honor, would you take off jockey Saffie Osborne and replace her with a jockey familiar with Saratoga's track and surface?
-
Latest reports on Horse Racing Nation tells us that both Journalism and Sovereignty are both heading to the Belmont along with Baeza, Gosger, Heart Of Honor, Hill Road, and Rodriguez. What other horse in this race is going to press the speed of Gosger? And if you were owner/trainer of Heart Of Honor, would you take off jockey Saffie Osborne and replace her with a jockey familiar with Saratoga's track and surface?
Baeza at over 5-1 is play unfortunately Sandman isn’t going so the dumb money won’t be on him.
-
The Answer.....I was disappointed to not see Sandman going too!
-
There are a lot of races for 3 year olds for good money without having to face the top horses.The Belmont isn't the same at Saratoga at a shorter distance.
-
Shorter distance and $2m!
-
What good is a 2: million purse if you're overmatched. There are plenty of other races for $500,000 to $750,000 where you'd have a better chance of winning. If you're looking to earn the most money and aren't one of the top horses I would duck them and run elsewhere.
-
That's why there's 20-1 and longer shots in every race. Most people think they fit. LOL. Unless they just like being on the card. LOL.
-
That's why there's 20-1 and longer shots in every race. Most people think they fit. LOL. Unless they just like being on the card. LOL.
[/quotI
I think a 20-1 shot has a better chance of winning the Derby because of the 20 horse field than a 10 horse field. I agree some owners want the prestige of running in a big race even though it's ill advised.. I'm just looking at things strictly from a business standpoint and what I would do. Let's say for an example a 20-1 shot has a 5 percent chance of winning, are those good odds, of course not, does it happen, occasionally but not often.
-
Sovereignty will and should be the favorite
doubt it
the public that saw what Journalism overcame and still win--he will be over bet, combined with the fact he was considerably lower odds in the Derby--i cannot see Sov being lower odds than Journalism--if they face off
Baeza is the wiseguy horse and will take plenty of money also
-
I think that Sovereignty will end up at 5/2 with Journalism at 3/1.
-
Still think Journalism will be the favorite based more on his win in the Preakness than his loss in the Derby. He's been the favorite in just about all his lifetime starts where Soveignty hasn't
It could go either way. Keep in mind the race is in New York, so perhaps NYRA bettors loyalty to Mott.. If we get the Baeza as well, I would not expect that the odds would be that far apar for all three horses.
-
I think that Sovereignty will end up at 5/2 with Journalism at 3/1.
tmbz1 I think Sovereignty will be 8-5 and Journalism 3-1
-
Seems extremely premature and frankly a little silly to be predicting odds when you don't know who
is actually racing, the size of the field or post positions.
-
Seems extremely premature and frankly a little silly to be predicting odds when you don't know who
is actually racing, the size of the field or post positions.
So you dont have to. You can wait.
-
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://amp.horseracingnation.com/news/Report_Gosger_will_skip_Belmont_for_Haskell_or_Jim_Dandy_123&ved=2ahUKEwjt_J3_6bWNAxX9F1kFHfbFHtMQ0PADKAB6BAgXEAE&usg=AOvVaw3ZxRR4kLC74wR9y5cFFZsx
-
With Gosger out of the Belmont, it looks like this could be a field of 5 or 6 going to post.
-
Only a 6-horse field normally means a slow pace, which wouldn't be a good set-up for the closers.
-
Seems extremely premature and frankly a little silly to be predicting odds when you don't know who
is actually racing, the size of the field or post positions.
With an expected field of 5-6 it doesnt seem so premature does it?
-
Well yes dumb fuck it does. Like at the time you didn't know Gosger , a potential major
speed factor wasn't going to run. Still don't know how many, despite what you experts
'ANTICIPATE' , are going to run or post positions. 11.wp
-
Well yes dumb fuck it does. Like at the time you didn't know Gosger , a potential major
speed factor wasn't going to run. Still don't know how many, despite what you experts
'ANTICIPATE' , are going to run or post positions. 11.wp
Name calling when you're proven wrong is soooo childlike. GROW THE FUCK UP!
-
In a 6-horse field I don't think post position is much of a factor compared to potential speed in the race. No excuse for any jockey to put his horse in the position Rispoli put Journalism in at the Preakness.
-
There's a lot of old sayings and they're there for a reason. For instance, 'Sometimes you gotta call a spade a spade'.
The only obvious thing is judging by most all of your posts: Dumb fuck hits the mark.
-
Guys, seriously, nice high level conversation and it has to turn into petty BS. It's a friggn' BB. You don't like a guy's opinion, so what. You think it's stupid, so what. Why is everyone so quick to make someone else out to be wrong? You disagree, be kind and say so. No need to attack an innocent post. You want to ask a question, say so, and be kind. If not, let it go and enjoy the conversation. Laugh at stupidity. It's in the eye of beholder. LOL.
That said, I can't say I never thought about it, but knowing most of who may show up, you can naturally start thinking about odds. Especially if you are looking to bet! LOL. Someone defects or scratches, you think more and differently. I ain't betting, but I guess I could be compelled to do so, LOL. Not being an expert, I can't see past the top 3 as of right now. I don't know enough about the others. I just don't know if that "key" race theory holds true, and if it does, what it means here. LOL.
-
What's interesting about the race is, the top horses are all closers. How much pace are you going to get to run at in a 6-horse field, how slow will the pace be, which could compromise the closers. Sometimes when a confirmed closer is closer to the pace than normal, he doesn't have the same kind of run at the end as he normally would.
-
If you were to ask a 'quality' morning line odds maker like say the guy at Keeneland 18 days out
from a race to set odds, they would decline. They would site the lack of vital information at their
disposal to do so. It's still 15 days to the race. Any comment has to be prefaced with 'IF' this horse
runs or 'IF' this horse doesn't. A reasonable logical conclusion would be is [one again 'IF] Journalism,
Soverereignty, + Baeza all run that the former two will likely be nearly co-favorites with Baeza a couple
notches behind. That however is not setting 'ODDS' which would require the aforementioned required info.
-
I agree with your odds assessment if the top 3 horses all run.
-
Guys, seriously, nice high level conversation and it has to turn into petty BS. It's a friggn' BB. You don't like a guy's opinion, so what. You think it's stupid, so what. Why is everyone so quick to make someone else out to be wrong? You disagree, be kind and say so. No need to attack an innocent post. You want to ask a question, say so, and be kind. If not, let it go and enjoy the conversation. Laugh at stupidity. It's in the eye of beholder. LOL.
That said, I can't say I never thought about it, but knowing most of who may show up, you can naturally start thinking about odds. Especially if you are looking to bet! LOL. Someone defects or scratches, you think more and differently. I ain't betting, but I guess I could be compelled to do so, LOL. Not being an expert, I can't see past the top 3 as of right now. I don't know enough about the others. I just don't know if that "key" race theory holds true, and if it does, what it means here. LOL.
What would this site be without petty arguments, personal attacks and name calling, answer alot better, but it ain't happening anytime soon.
-
What would this site be without petty arguments, personal attacks and name calling, answer alot better, but it ain't happening anytime soon.
It would be a lot better. A normal, healthy, quality BB, conducive to talking about the sport and industry. No, ain't happening.
-
From DRF.....
"Gosger's defection now leaves a field of six for the Belmont, led by Journalism and the Kentucky Derby 1-3 finishers Sovereignty and Baeza."
-
It would be a lot better. A normal, healthy, quality BB, conducive to talking about the sport and industry. No, ain't happening.
The biggest problem is certain people want to control the dialogue.
-
I always wonder about "closers" in t-breds. Obviously if you have a one dimensional, stone cold closer, who can't break well, can't engage early, and so on-----it's obvious if he was forced to be closer to the pace he wouldn't have the gas in the tank to close like the norm. Take a horse out of their one dimensional only running style and it's not good, LOL. Exceptions to the norm of course.
But, every horse is different. IIRC, other than his maiden, Journalism had always been not too far off the pace. About 4 lengths or so. Sure, much smaller fields, totally different than the Derby, and so on. But, is he a stone cold, one dimensional closer? I don't think so. He was a big time closer in the Derby, LOL. Sovereignty maybe more, maybe much more. He had always been what, 5 to 6 off the pace? Yes, big time close in the Derby, and very different races. He was closing in the FL Derby and didn't get there, and also in the Fountain of Youth, and did just get up. Sure, much more of a closer, but does that relegate him to last and gapping the field, only being able to close into a very fast pace? IDK, LOL. Baeza, in only his second start, had the lead in the SA Derby and got beat by Journalism. Breaking his maiden he sat second, took over the lead and won. So, what does all this mean? I have no idea. I guess that's why they call it handicapping. LOL.
-
Back in the old days when a certain horse was running in a winner over $15,000 race he always ran from behind and never got there, but when he dropped to non-winners of $15,000 in last 6 starts, he'd run on the front end and win. T-breds normally stick to the same running style no matter what. Route turf races for top horses usually turn into a 1/4 mile sprint home so if you're too far back, most likely, you're not going to win, but dirt race routes are totally different and the last 1/4 mile is usually the slowest of the race.
-
Scooteroo.....Gra ndstand Handicapper.....I think I've lost money money waiting for "closers" from "way back" in my 50 years of playing the thoroughbreds. LOL! It does happen as we all know it, but for me.....not very often. For some reason, i have done better with closers on the turf.
-
Back in the old days when a certain horse was running in a winner over $15,000 race he always ran from behind and never got there, but when he dropped to non-winners of $15,000 in last 6 starts, he'd run on the front end and win. T-breds normally stick to the same running style no matter what. Route turf races for top horses usually turn into a 1/4 mile sprint home so if you're too far back, most likely, you're not going to win, but dirt race routes are totally different and the last 1/4 mile is usually the slowest of the race.
The conspiracy theorists will tell you the race was fixed. LOL. Seriously, I've seen plenty of horses who can be closer, in contention, whatever, in a lower class, but when they race in a higher class, they are further back. Some say it's the class, some say speed, some don't say, LOL. It happens. As Billy O' used to say, unfortunately you can't ask the horse why. LOL.
-
The horse I'm referring to is Landis Hanover, driven by one of the Filion's, but not Herve. It was either at Brandywine or Liberty Bell. My guess is when the horse dropped into the lower class the driver bet his money and wanted to be control the race, so I knew he was almost a lock to be leaving. Some horses are class conscious, and he was a perfect example. Was he stiffing the horse in his previous races so he could drop into a softer field, not really, he probably knew he was outclassed and drove for a purse check, again is it face fixing, I call it horse management.
-
I know it's still early but I think i'm leaning toward Baeza for the Belmont at Saratoga. I think the 5 week rest will be great for him. His breeding points out the fact that he might be the choice for me. He's the half-brother to last years Belmont winner Dornoch. Although he was beaten both by Journalism and Sovereignty, I think he'll be ready to turn the tables on them in the Belmont. The question is.....can I get 5-1 on him? I'll put $50WP on him I'df I get those sweet odds.
-
I know it's still early but I think i'm leaning toward Baeza for the Belmont at Saratoga. I think the 5 week rest will be great for him. His breeding points out the fact that he might be the choice for me. He's the half-brother to last years Belmont winner Dornoch. Although he was beaten both by Journalism and Sovereignty, I think he'll be ready to turn the tables on them in the Belmont. The question is.....can I get 5-1 on him? I'll put $50WP on him I'df I get those sweet odds.
in a 5 or 6 horse field.....you will get closer to 5/2 than 5/1
-
You might be right Papillon.
-
I know it's still early but I think i'm leaning toward Baeza for the Belmont at Saratoga. I think the 5 week rest will be great for him. His breeding points out the fact that he might be the choice for me. He's the half-brother to last years Belmont winner Dornoch. Although he was beaten both by Journalism and Sovereignty, I think he'll be ready to turn the tables on them in the Belmont. The question is.....can I get 5-1 on him? I'll put $50WP on him I'df I get those sweet odds.
I think you may get 5-1. Sovereignty and Journalism will get hammered.
-
I hope your right!
-
I think you may get 5-1. Sovereignty and Journalism will get hammered.
Baeza finished about 1 length behind Journalism at Santa Anita and Kentucky-there cannot be a large differential in odds
obviously you like Sovereignty
it looks a good race even not knowing who the other horses are
-
I know it's still early but I think i'm leaning toward Baeza for the Belmont at Saratoga. I think the 5 week rest will be great for him. His breeding points out the fact that he might be the choice for me. He's the half-brother to last years Belmont winner Dornoch. Although he was beaten both by Journalism and Sovereignty, I think he'll be ready to turn the tables on them in the Belmont. The question is.....can I get 5-1 on him? I'll put $50WP on him I'df I get those sweet odds.
In probably a 6-horse field I don't think a place bet is worth it unless he runs second, just my opinion.
-
Baeza finished about 1 length behind Journalism at Santa Anita and Kentucky-there cannot be a large differential in odds
obviously you like Sovereignty
it looks a good race even not knowing who the other horses are
tmbz1 tmbz1
-
With the horse folk saying it will be six horse field (Baeza, Heart Of Honor, Hill Road, Journalism, Rodriguez, Sovereignty) heading into the Belmont, who do you all like? My pick is Baeza at hopefully 4-1. I know many will play cold Journalism/Sovereignty exacts.
-
Need to pay attention how the track plays, there are plenty of days at Saratoga with a big speed bias.
-
BoKnows.....I'm leaning toward Baeza. I'm hoping the price is right. One of the writers on Horse Racing Nation think Baeza may go off at 5-1. I hope so! LOL!
-
BoKnows.....I'm leaning toward Baeza. I'm hoping the price is right. One of the writers on Horse Racing Nation think Baeza may go off at 5-1. I hope so! LOL!
this is somewhat delusional and here is why:
1).....it looks like a 6 horse field
2).....Baeza was about one length behind Journalism in the SA Derby and Ky Derby--they are coming out of the same races..Journalism will be favored, so there cannot be that much of a difference in the odds
3).....Baeza raced very well in his last two races--why would anyone think he could be 5/1 is bizarre
4).....HRN is not a reliable source for logic... Baeza will undoubtedly get bet...more like 3/1 or 5/2 is realistic
If anyone likes either Journalism or Baeza, they, by default, must respect the other one due to the both of them coming out of the races where they were separated by a little more than one length
if I wanted to take a bold stance..I would say Baeza could go off lower odds than the Derby winner--but .Mott's horse turned in a nice work, so he will probably be a slight 2nd choice behind Journalism
just trying to inject some reality here
-
Papillon.....geez, you're cutting into my profit margin! LOL!
-
this is somewhat delusional and here is why:
1).....it looks like a 6 horse field
2).....Baeza was about one length behind Journalism in the SA Derby and Ky Derby--they are coming out of the same races..Journalism will be favored, so there cannot be that much of a difference in the odds
3).....Baeza raced very well in his last two races--why would anyone think he could be 5/1 is bizarre
4).....HRN is not a reliable source for logic, so Baeza will undoubtedly get bet...more like 3/1 or 5/2 is realistic
If anyone likes either Journalism or Baeza, they, by default, must respect the other one due to the both of them coming out of the races where they were separated by a little more than one length
if I wanted to take a bold stance..I would say Baeza could go off lower odds than the Derby winner--but the nice work he turned in will probably make him a slight 2nd choice behind Journalism
just trying to inject some reality here
Sovereignty will be the favorite making all your odds much longer....
-
Sovereignty will be the favorite making all your odds much longer....
you will continue your streak of never being right about anything
-
you will continue your streak of never being right about anything
You must be referring to yourself DUMBO! Watch! ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
-
I don't know t-breds, but in a big race, with a very short field, the odds won't end up linear. While I have no idea what the ML, nor who the public handicappers will pick, it's still the everyday betting public that drives the odds. I don't give them that much credit. LOL. Sharp players, who really follow the sport, have an edge. While it's nothing more than a guess, I think the Derby winner will be post time favorite, and the Preakness winner will be second choice, and it will be close. The odds for the entire field should be pretty tight. I guess we'll soon see. I wish the race was at Belmont at the mile and half, LOL.
-
Grandstand.....I follow the T-Breds alot and I think this will be the morning line. My humble opinion of course.
Sovereignty 8-5
Journalism 2-1
Baeza 4-1
Rodriguez 6-1
Hill Road 25-1
Heart Of Honor 75-1
-
Grandstand.....I follow the T-Breds alot and I think this will be the morning line. My humble opinion of course.
Sovereignty 8-5
Journalism 2-1
Baeza 4-1
Rodriguez 6-1
Hill Road 25-1
Heart Of Honor 75-1
And post time? What do you think? Heart of Honor is the European horse, right? OK, let's toss him, LOL.
-
Grandstand, I think at post time Sovereignty will be 7-5 with Journalism at 9-5. Baeza and Rodriguez will be co-3rd/4th at 9/2, Hill Honor at 18-1 and Heart Of Honor at 99-1. And yes the European horse could be a "toss". LOL!
-
I'm hearing Journalism isnt a lock to start...
-
The first four make sense to me, but then again, what do I know, LOL. In the last interview I heard, McCarthy said they are not committed to the race. He said he was going to fly into NY later this week and watch the horse train before making a final decision. He also said he's going to let the horse tell him. Sounds prudent to me. Like a real horseman.
-
Does the Belmont mean anything today in 2025 as it's being raced at Saratoga @ 1 and 1/4 miles?
IMO, the race meant more at 1 and 1/2 miles! The extra 1/4 mile shows the contenders from the pretenders!
Many great horses sealed triple crowns at 1 and 1/2 mile and other very good horses also won the race at 1 and 1/2 miles!
-
Grandstand, I think at post time Sovereignty will be 7-5 with Journalism at 9-5. Baeza and Rodriguez will be co-3rd/4th at 9/2, Hill Honor at 18-1 and Heart Of Honor at 99-1. And yes the European horse could be a "toss". LOL!
I don't think any horse will approach 99-1 in a 6 horse field in a triple crown race. There is so much dead money on days like this betting on horses who have no shot. I would be surprised if he is higher than 40-1 even if he deserves to be much higher. Way too many people picking names, etc.
-
The first four make sense to me, but then again, what do I know, LOL. In the last interview I heard, McCarthy said they are not committed to the race. He said he was going to fly into NY later this week and watch the horse train before making a final decision. He also said he's going to let the horse tell him. Sounds prudent to me. Like a real horseman.
These days it's rare for a horse to run in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown unless he's already won the Derby and Preakness. There are several big races left for the 3-year-olds, so if he decided to skip the Belmont it wouldn't be a big deal. 10 to 15 years ago it wasn't uncommon for up to 6 horses to run in all 3 legs, but today most trainers prefer 4 to 6 weeks between starts.
-
Going into the Derby I wasn’t a Baeza fan but that was a huge run from the 19 PP. there’s a horse that got a lot of experience and the 5 weeks could be the right timing as Sovereignty and Journalism, deservedly, get the majority of press.
-
While the Belmont, at a mile and half, has always been the test of champions-----and the BC Classic, where the 3yo's have to race against older horses-----it is what it is, and it's still a stallion maker race. Sure, it's a 1/4 shorter, but I don't think a commercial breeder (and they make stallions) would say, no, I am not breeding to him because it was only a mile and a quarter. Sovereignty skipping the Preakness will not hurt him or his stallion career. Breeders and people in the business know. Horses simply aren't racing like they used to. It's that simple and it's innate in the business. Remember, it ain't about the fans. LOL.
-
It looks like owner Mike Repole is seriously thinking of entering Uncaged in the Belmont Stakes. I know he's a New Yorker and would love nothing more than having a horse run in NY. Pletcher is being cagey about what they are thinking. A buddy of mine thinks Rodriguez will win easily. I'm not so sure of that. LOL!
-
you will continue your streak of never being right about anything
You better pray you are right or you'll deserve the blasting you'll get! ngc3 ngc3
-
It looks like owner Mike Repole is seriously thinking of entering Uncaged in the Belmont Stakes. I know he's a New Yorker and would love nothing more than having a horse run in NY. Pletcher is being cagey about what they are thinking. A buddy of mine thinks Rodriguez will win easily. I'm not so sure of that. LOL!
Fuck Repole.
-
It looks like owner Mike Repole is seriously thinking of entering Uncaged in the Belmont Stakes. I know he's a New Yorker and would love nothing more than having a horse run in NY. Pletcher is being cagey about what they are thinking. A buddy of mine thinks Rodriguez will win easily. I'm not so sure of that. LOL!
I'm fairly certain it isnt Repole that does the entering!
-
Pacer 2.....If you don't think that he gives Todd Pletcher his "suggestions" on where to race, you couldn't be wronger. He's in the top 5 owners in America, and just spent 12 million this year on horses Pletcher will train for him. Follow the money. He's the boss!
-
I dont think so. Pletcher wont allow it from anyone.
-
Nope, I disagree. He'll go where he's told. He might suggest another race. But in the end, Repole runs his own stable. Any trainer would kiss the ass of anyone who sold Body Armour to Coke for 5.6 Billion and Glaceau to Coke for 4.1 Billion. Pletcher ain't crazy. This is his meal ticket.
-
Nope, I disagree. He'll go where he's told. He might suggest another race. But in the end, Repole runs his own stable. Any trainer would kiss the ass of anyone who sold Body Armour to Coke for 5.6 Billion and Glaceau to Coke for 4.1 Billion. Pletcher ain't crazy. This is his meal ticket.
Pletcher wouldnt take bossing from Elon Musk about horses! ngc3
-
Pacer 2.....LOL! He'd bend over if Musk put some of his money up! LOL!
-
I dont think so. Pletcher wont allow it from anyone.
you are an idiot 73cv.2
Replole owns the horses and tells Pletcher what to do
your streak continues
-
https://www.drf.com/news/journalism-will-run-belmont-mccarthy-confirms
-
Papillon.....You are so right! LOL!
-
Papillon.....wow a field of 8 going now. I may be able to make a few bucks now! LOL!
-
Journalism confirmed for the Belmont...
https://paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/preakness-winner-journalism-confirmed-for-belmont-stakes
And Todd Pletcher is sending two...Uncaged and Crudo...
https://paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/todd-pletcher-enters-crudo-uncaged-in-belmont
-
It's been said that Mott is always about the horse first. And only.
Yes and Pletcher too. He wont allow a layman to make horse decisions!
-
you are an idiot 73cv.2
Replole owns the horses and tells Pletcher what to do
your streak continues
You are the proven IDIOT!! 73cv.2 73cv.2 73cv.2 73cv.2
-
Papillon.....wow a field of 8 going now. I may be able to make a few bucks now! LOL!
yes-you might get your 5/1 on Baeza after all dougie
I wish for a clean race--not troubled trips to speculate about
.... not a fan of California horses generally speaking --but now leaning towards a Baeza/Journalism small exacta box
if you like one of them you should like the other
full respect for Sovereignty and Mott.. of course I would not be shocked if he runs over them again
also hearing a lot of hype about Rodriguez wiring them all here in my parts
-
Pacer 2.....Repole a "layman". LOL! He's knows more about horses than 90% of the trainers in the biz. LOL!
-
Pacer 2.....If you don't think that he gives Todd Pletcher his "suggestions" on where to race, you couldn't be wronger. He's in the top 5 owners in America, and just spent 12 million this year on horses Pletcher will train for him. Follow the money. He's the boss!
"Suggestions" are far different then being "the Boss" ngc3
-
You are the proven IDIOT!! 73cv.2 73cv.2 73cv.2 73cv.2
good comeback tmbz1
very deep and well thought out
you remind of a poster who had a username of Gallo Blue Chip on another site
-
good comeback tmbz1
very deep and well thought out
you remind of a poster who had a username of Gallo Blue Chip on another site
IDIOT! ngc3 ngc3
-
Papillon.....I think your right about the odds on Baeza. I was listening to Richard Migilore who thinks Journalism will be the chalk.
-
So the 6 horse field is now an 8 horse field...a bit more interesting. LOL. Especially the post-time odds. LOL.
-
https://www.drf.com/news/belmont-stakes-2025-journalism-draws-post-7-8-5-favorite-sovereignty-2-1
-
From the DRF.....here's your ML.....
Belmont Stakes
Saturday, June 7; $2 million; 1 1/4 miles
1) Hill Road, Irad Ortiz Jr., 10-1
2) Sovereignty, Junior Alvarado, 2-1
3) Rodriguez, Mike Smith, 6-1
4) Uncaged, Luis Saez, 30-1
5) Crudo, John Velazquez, 15-1
6) Baeza, Flavien Prat, 4-1
7) Journalism, Umberto Rispoli, 8-5
8) Heart of Honor, Saffie Osborne, 30-1
Track odds; all starters carry 126 pounds
-
From the DRF.....here's your ML.....
Belmont Stakes
Saturday, June 7; $2 million; 1 1/4 miles
1) Hill Road, Irad Ortiz Jr., 10-1
2) Sovereignty, Junior Alvarado, 2-1
3) Rodriguez, Mike Smith, 6-1
4) Uncaged, Luis Saez, 30-1
5) Crudo, John Velazquez, 15-1
6) Baeza, Flavien Prat, 4-1
7) Journalism, Umberto Rispoli, 8-5
8) Heart of Honor, Saffie Osborne, 30-1
Track odds; all starters carry 126 pounds
I am honored to be eggnored, you are posting data that I have posted 2 hours earlier twice now
carry on
-
There's alot of "buzz" about #1 Hill Prince" from the Chad Brown barn. With Irad Ortiz Jr. riding. He ran down a couple of frontrunners in the Peter Pan. If I can get him 2nd or 3rd in the tri, it could be a sweet ticket. My early pick Baeza is still my choice. But I have friends who have been horseplayers for 50 years who tell me the two favorites are just better than the rest of the field. I'm still studying.....
-
Any given Sunday, no? If the two are really that much better, OK.....but anything can happen. Baeza has shown a hell of a lot of talent, ability, etc. Who knows if it's luck, pace, trip, or if he's as almost as good, as good, as the big two. Hell, if he is still progressing, maybe he's better, LOL.
I am hoping for and looking forward to an exciting race.
-
Free PP:
https://www.equineline.com/watch/ppFile.cfm?trk=SAR&country=USA&day_evening=D&race=13&date=20250607&i=2&ri=34&k=6F2E257F95186D2CC05C75E2BD9272D001B14F54A4B9315C61EBBF176BB45596 (https://www.equineline.com/watch/ppFile.cfm?trk=SAR&country=USA&day_evening=D&race=13&date=20250607&i=2&ri=34&k=6F2E257F95186D2CC05C75E2BD9272D001B14F54A4B9315C61EBBF176BB45596)
Babi
-
I had Sovereignty in The Derby. I see no reason why he shouldn't win this race. He has the
freshness advantage on Journalism. If it were a larger field, I would worry about the post.
I think he'll outbreak the one and from there, sit behind the speed and wait for Journalism
to move. From there, it's on. Saratoga is where favorites go to die however. ;D
-
I made a big score on Sovereignty in the Derby and will likely back him in the Belmont although I wont get near the odds of the Derby. Resting Sovereignty from the Preakness should pay off.
-
I made a big score on Sovereignty in the Derby and will likely back him in the Belmont although I wont get near the odds of the Derby. Resting Sovereignty from the Preakness should pay off.
(https://iili.io/FdwakTN.md.jpg) (https://freeimage.host/i/FdwakTN)
-
(https://iili.io/FdwakTN.md.jpg) (https://freeimage.host/i/FdwakTN)
Jealous much? ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
-
(https://iili.io/FdwakTN.md.jpg) (https://freeimage.host/i/FdwakTN)
-
I'm still leaning toward Baeza but it will be 'odds driven" to get a big bet outta me. LOL!
-
(https://iili.io/FdwakTN.md.jpg) (https://freeimage.host/i/FdwakTN)
Im certain you dont have the money or the brains to win like I do. ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
-
(https://iili.io/FdwakTN.md.jpg) (https://freeimage.host/i/FdwakTN)
-
I had Sovereignty in The Derby. I see no reason why he shouldn't win this race. He has the
freshness advantage on Journalism. If it were a larger field, I would worry about the post.
I think he'll outbreak the one and from there, sit behind the speed and wait for Journalism
to move. From there, it's on. Saratoga is where favorites go to die however. ;D
the saying goes ...."Saratoga is the graveyard of champions"
Upset beat Man O' War
Onion beat Secretariat
Keen Ice beat American Pharaoh
over the years, folks have twisted the words around somehow involving the favorite.... every time a favorite loses there, it gets repeated......-its hilarious
-
Thanks for clearing that up. I was in the ballpark. Glad I could provide a chuckle for you. tmbz1
-
Thanks for clearing that up. I was in the ballpark. Glad I could provide a chuckle for you. tmbz1
good luck in the race saturday tmbz1
I will go with an exacta box....Baeza/Journalism--no strong opinion
-
My wager will be a exacta 6/127
My tri will be 6/127/1237
Mu super will be 6/127/1237/all
-
Sovereignty tmbz1 11.wp
-
At Saratoga today and the folks I chat with, most think Sovereignty with the 5 week break will win. Journalism and Baeza have their fans. But the majority like the Derby Winner. It's pretty surprising that very few people even mention the rest of the field. LOL!
-
If Journalism happens to run poorly he can use the excuse of 3 races in 5 weeks, Soveignty and Baeza can't.
-
Scooteroo.....I agree with you.
-
All things being equal, 3 races in 5 weeks has to have an impact on those two horses. If it doesn't, and Sovereignty is 100%, then those two are much, much better than Sovereignty. LOL. I don't see that. But then again, that's why they run the races.
-
Grandstand Handicapper.....m ost of the folks think Crudo and Rodriguez will be on the engine early wih Hill Road laying third. I think the 3 favorites can't be to far back if the fractions are soft early. This is a very interesting race.
-
At Saratoga today and the folks I chat with, most think Sovereignty with the 5 week break will win. Journalism and Baeza have their fans. But the majority like the Derby Winner. It's pretty surprising that very few people even mention the rest of the field. LOL!
3 races in 5 weeks make Journalism a question mark for me. Plus Sovereignty beat him anyway when rested.
-
Just because he beat him last time by less than a length doesn't mean he's going to beat him this time. The crop of 3-year-olds is decent, but far from great, it's the kind of group where horses may take turns beating each other.
-
Just because he beat him last time by less than a length doesn't mean he's going to beat him this time. The crop of 3-year-olds is decent, but far from great, it's the kind of group where horses may take turns beating each other.
They may or may not! ngc3 Chances are he beats him again....
-
They may or may not! ngc3 Chances are he beats him again....
When will you tell us how Secretariat's vet treated him??? ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
-
They may or may not! ngc3 Chances are he beats him again....
It doesn't matter to me if he does or not, because I'm probably not betting either one of them or the race at all. I think harness horses as a whole are more consistent than T-Breds because they run more often & keep their form in between starts. When you're a top T-Bred and only running every 4-6 weeks who knows which version will show up?
-
When will you tell us how Secretariat's vet treated him??? ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
WTF are you talking about? 1973??? TOO FUNNY MORON! ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
-
WTF are you talking about? 1973??? TOO FUNNY MORON! ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
Oh, so you admit you're too fucking scared to say who you are? Exactly. tmbz1
-
Oh, so you admit you're too fucking scared to say who you are? Exactly. tmbz1
ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
-
Meanwhile, your "industry" lives off welfare. The flats THRIVE!!! And kill even more horses than you do!!!
https://pge.post-gazette.com/.pf/showstory/202505280035/3
-
Meanwhile, your "industry" lives off welfare. The flats THRIVE!!! And kill even more horses than you do!!!
https://pge.post-gazette.com/.pf/showstory/202505280035/3
When do you get off welfare?? ngc3 ngc3
-
Baeza, Sovereignty and Journalism in that order. Loved Baeza in the Derby and came a little bit short of making me some nice money from a bad post. Didn't like Soverignty before and still don't like him, but am lot is being asked of Journalism.
Can't see how at least two of the three don't make the trifecta so I am going to look to Pick Threes and Doubles
Good luck to everyone!
-
Sovereignty is 7/2 right now
I dont think he will be the favorite
-
Papillon.....that's a super price!
-
I just checked, there's $700,000 in the win pool as of 4:00 PM on Friday, which is a drop in the bucket considering the win pool might end up being 20 million or so. I still think you'll get 3-1 on Sovereignty.
-
Big crowd here at Saratoga. Almost everyone has an opinion. In the end, I wouldn't be surprised if they are 2-1 Co-favorites at Post Time.
-
Journalism and Baeza are co-favorites at 2-1. I think Baeza will go up a little and Journalism stay about the same.
-
He thought about it for two weeks. ;D
-
He thought about it for two weeks. ;D
the guy is an idiot
on any topic
-
Agreed. I called for his dismissal earlier on the Allard thread and had several supporters. tmbz1
-
if you look at the WPS pools, Baeza has significantly more money than the others in the place and show pools. The win pool is something different altogether. Wouldn't be surprised if it was a few very large win only bets on Journalism.
The exacta pool indicates that Journalism would be 8-5 or 9-5, with the others 2-1. I am guessing that is where they will all end up.
-
At least he didnt drug his A.E. Triple Crown horse Rich Strike...we think...maybe.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/284952/reed-suspended-15-days-fined-for-gabapentin-positive
-
It's still very early but as of 7:00 AM today, Journalism is currently 1-1, Baeza, 7-2, and Sovereignty, 9-2. Currently the Win pool is 1.4 million, estimated final Win pool, 20 million.. Definitely looks like it's going to be a sloppy track.
-
1st 3 races today all won by closers. Track sloppy for now.
-
Rodriguez is a speed horse … Baeza is a closer …
My pick is Sovereignty tmbz1
The race is wide open …
-
I said they'd be nearly co-faves and that Sovereignty would sit just off the speed
and wait for Journalism, and Sovereignty would win again.
-
YES I told you guys Sovereignty 3 times! He should've been favored! ANOTHER BIG SCORE FOR ME! tmbz1 tmbz1