Early Belmont Stakes thoughts

[gh2009]

The horse I'm referring to is Landis Hanover, driven by one of the Filion's, but not Herve. It was either at Brandywine or Liberty Bell. My guess is when the horse dropped into the lower class the driver bet his money and wanted to be control the race, so I knew he was almost a lock to be leaving. Some horses are class conscious, and he was a perfect example. Was he stiffing the horse in his previous races so he could drop into a softer field, not really, he probably knew he was outclassed and drove for a purse check, again is it face fixing, I call it horse management.

[dougie]

I know it's still early but I think i'm leaning toward Baeza for the Belmont at Saratoga. I think the 5 week rest will be great for him. His breeding points out the fact that he might be the choice for me. He's the half-brother to last years Belmont winner Dornoch. Although he was beaten both by Journalism and Sovereignty, I think he'll be ready to turn the tables on them in the Belmont. The question is.....can I get 5-1 on him? I'll put $50WP on him I'df I get those sweet odds.

[Papillon]

I know it's still early but I think i'm leaning toward Baeza for the Belmont at Saratoga. I think the 5 week rest will be great for him. His breeding points out the fact that he might be the choice for me. He's the half-brother to last years Belmont winner Dornoch. Although he was beaten both by Journalism and Sovereignty, I think he'll be ready to turn the tables on them in the Belmont. The question is.....can I get 5-1 on him? I'll put $50WP on him I'df I get those sweet odds.

in a 5 or 6 horse field.....you will get closer to 5/2 than 5/1

[dougie]

You might be right Papillon.

[Pacer 2]

I know it's still early but I think i'm leaning toward Baeza for the Belmont at Saratoga. I think the 5 week rest will be great for him. His breeding points out the fact that he might be the choice for me. He's the half-brother to last years Belmont winner Dornoch. Although he was beaten both by Journalism and Sovereignty, I think he'll be ready to turn the tables on them in the Belmont. The question is.....can I get 5-1 on him? I'll put $50WP on him I'df I get those sweet odds.

  I think you may get 5-1. Sovereignty and Journalism will get hammered.

[dougie]

I hope your right!

[Papillon]

  I think you may get 5-1. Sovereignty and Journalism will get hammered.

Baeza finished about 1 length behind Journalism at Santa Anita and Kentucky-there cannot be a large differential in odds

obviously you like Sovereignty

it looks a good race even not knowing who the other horses are

[gh2009]

I know it's still early but I think i'm leaning toward Baeza for the Belmont at Saratoga. I think the 5 week rest will be great for him. His breeding points out the fact that he might be the choice for me. He's the half-brother to last years Belmont winner Dornoch. Although he was beaten both by Journalism and Sovereignty, I think he'll be ready to turn the tables on them in the Belmont. The question is.....can I get 5-1 on him? I'll put $50WP on him I'df I get those sweet odds.

In probably a 6-horse field I don't think a place bet is worth it unless he runs second, just my opinion.

[Pacer 2]

Baeza finished about 1 length behind Journalism at Santa Anita and Kentucky-there cannot be a large differential in odds

obviously you like Sovereignty

it looks a good race even not knowing who the other horses are

   

[dougie]

With the horse folk saying it will be  six horse field (Baeza, Heart Of Honor, Hill Road, Journalism, Rodriguez, Sovereignty) heading into the Belmont, who do you all like? My pick is Baeza at hopefully 4-1.  I know many will play  cold Journalism/Sovereignty exacts.

[BoKnows]

Need to pay attention how the track plays, there are plenty of days at Saratoga with a big speed bias.

[dougie]

BoKnows.....I'm leaning toward Baeza. I'm hoping the price is right. One of the writers on Horse Racing Nation think Baeza may go off at 5-1. I hope so! LOL!

[Papillon]

BoKnows.....I'm leaning toward Baeza. I'm hoping the price is right. One of the writers on Horse Racing Nation think Baeza may go off at 5-1. I hope so! LOL!

this is somewhat delusional and here is why:

1).....it looks like a 6 horse field
2).....Baeza was about one length behind Journalism in the SA Derby and Ky Derby--they are coming out of the same races..Journalism will be favored, so there cannot be that much of a difference in the odds
3).....Baeza raced very well in his last two races--why would anyone think he could be 5/1 is bizarre
4).....HRN is not a reliable source for logic... Baeza will undoubtedly get bet...more like 3/1 or 5/2 is realistic

If anyone likes either Journalism or Baeza, they, by default, must respect the other one due to the both of them coming out of the races where they were separated by a little more than one length

if I wanted to take a bold stance..I would say Baeza could go off lower odds than the Derby winner--but .Mott's horse turned in a nice work, so he will  probably be a slight 2nd choice behind Journalism

just trying to inject some reality here

[dougie]

Papillon.....geez, you're cutting into my profit margin! LOL!

[Pacer 2]

this is somewhat delusional and here is why:

1).....it looks like a 6 horse field
2).....Baeza was about one length behind Journalism in the SA Derby and Ky Derby--they are coming out of the same races..Journalism will be favored, so there cannot be that much of a difference in the odds
3).....Baeza raced very well in his last two races--why would anyone think he could be 5/1 is bizarre
4).....HRN is not a reliable source for logic, so Baeza will undoubtedly get bet...more like 3/1 or 5/2 is realistic

If anyone likes either Journalism or Baeza, they, by default, must respect the other one due to the both of them coming out of the races where they were separated by a little more than one length

if I wanted to take a bold stance..I would say Baeza could go off lower odds than the Derby winner--but the nice work he turned in will  probably make him a slight 2nd choice behind Journalism

just trying to inject some reality here

   

     Sovereignty will be the favorite making all your odds much longer....