Early Belmont Stakes thoughts

[Papillon]

   

     Sovereignty will be the favorite making all your odds much longer....

you will continue your streak of never being right about anything

[Pacer 2]

you will continue your streak of never being right about anything

 
You must be referring to yourself DUMBO!   Watch! 

[Grandstand Handicapper]

I don't know t-breds, but in a big race, with a very short field, the odds won't end up linear. While I have no idea what the ML, nor who the public handicappers will pick, it's still the everyday betting public that drives the odds. I don't give them that much credit. LOL. Sharp players, who really follow the sport, have an edge. While it's nothing more than a guess, I think the Derby winner will be post time favorite, and the Preakness winner will be second choice, and it will be close. The odds for the entire field should be pretty tight. I guess we'll soon see. I wish the race was at Belmont at the mile and half, LOL.

[dougie]

Grandstand.....I follow the T-Breds alot and I think this will be the morning line. My humble opinion of course.
Sovereignty 8-5
Journalism 2-1
Baeza 4-1
Rodriguez 6-1
Hill Road 25-1
Heart Of Honor 75-1

[Grandstand Handicapper]

Grandstand.....I follow the T-Breds alot and I think this will be the morning line. My humble opinion of course.
Sovereignty 8-5
Journalism 2-1
Baeza 4-1
Rodriguez 6-1
Hill Road 25-1
Heart Of Honor 75-1

And post time? What do you think? Heart of Honor is the European horse, right? OK, let's toss him, LOL.

[dougie]

Grandstand, I think at post time Sovereignty will be 7-5 with Journalism at 9-5. Baeza and Rodriguez will be co-3rd/4th at 9/2, Hill Honor at 18-1 and Heart Of Honor at 99-1. And yes the European horse could be a "toss". LOL!

[Pacer 2]

I'm hearing Journalism isnt a lock to start...

[Grandstand Handicapper]

The first four make sense to me, but then again, what do I know, LOL. In the last interview I heard, McCarthy said they are not committed to the race. He said he was going to fly into NY later this week and watch the horse train before making a final decision. He also said he's going to let the horse tell him. Sounds prudent to me. Like a real horseman.

[rainman2]

Does the Belmont mean anything today in 2025 as it's being raced at Saratoga @ 1 and 1/4 miles?

IMO, the race meant more at 1 and 1/2 miles!  The extra 1/4 mile shows the contenders from the pretenders!

Many great horses sealed triple crowns at 1 and 1/2 mile and other very good horses also won the race at 1 and 1/2 miles!

[BoKnows]

Grandstand, I think at post time Sovereignty will be 7-5 with Journalism at 9-5. Baeza and Rodriguez will be co-3rd/4th at 9/2, Hill Honor at 18-1 and Heart Of Honor at 99-1. And yes the European horse could be a "toss". LOL!

I don't think any horse will approach 99-1 in a 6 horse field in a triple crown race. There is so much dead money on days like this betting on horses who have no shot. I would be surprised if he is higher than 40-1 even if he deserves to be much higher. Way too many people picking names, etc.

[Scooteroo]

The first four make sense to me, but then again, what do I know, LOL. In the last interview I heard, McCarthy said they are not committed to the race. He said he was going to fly into NY later this week and watch the horse train before making a final decision. He also said he's going to let the horse tell him. Sounds prudent to me. Like a real horseman.

These days it's rare for a horse to run in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown unless he's already won the Derby and Preakness. There are several big races left for the 3-year-olds, so if he decided to skip the Belmont it wouldn't be a big deal. 10 to 15 years ago it wasn't uncommon for up to 6 horses to run in all 3 legs, but today most trainers prefer 4 to 6 weeks between starts.

[dinkadoo]

Going into the Derby I wasn’t a Baeza fan but that was a huge run from the 19 PP.  there’s a horse that got a lot of experience and the 5 weeks could be the right timing as Sovereignty and Journalism, deservedly, get the majority of press.

[Grandstand Handicapper]

While the Belmont, at a mile and half, has always been the test of champions-----and the BC Classic, where the 3yo's have to race against older horses-----it is what it is, and it's still a stallion maker race. Sure, it's a 1/4 shorter, but I don't think a commercial breeder (and they make stallions) would say, no, I am not breeding to him because it was only a mile and a quarter. Sovereignty skipping the Preakness will not hurt him or his stallion career. Breeders and people in the business know. Horses simply aren't racing like they used to. It's that simple and it's innate in the business. Remember, it ain't about the fans. LOL.

[dougie]

It looks like owner Mike Repole is seriously thinking of entering Uncaged in the Belmont Stakes. I know he's a New Yorker and would love nothing more than having a horse run in NY. Pletcher is being cagey about what they are thinking. A buddy of mine thinks Rodriguez will win easily. I'm not so sure of that. LOL!

[Pacer 2]

you will continue your streak of never being right about anything

   You better pray you are right or you'll deserve the blasting you'll get!