Early Belmont Stakes thoughts

[Pacer 2]

Well yes dumb fuck it does. Like at the time you didn't know Gosger , a potential major
speed factor wasn't going to run. Still don't know how many, despite what you experts
'ANTICIPATE' , are going to run or post positions.

 
       Name calling when you're proven wrong is soooo childlike. GROW THE FUCK UP!   

[Scooteroo]

In a 6-horse field I don't think post position is much of a factor compared to potential speed in the race. No excuse for any jockey to put his horse in the position Rispoli put Journalism in at the Preakness.

[Bitter Truth]

There's a lot of old sayings and they're there for a reason. For instance, 'Sometimes you gotta call a spade a spade'.
The only obvious thing is judging by most all of your posts: Dumb fuck hits the mark.

[Grandstand Handicapper]

Guys, seriously, nice high level conversation and it has to turn into petty BS. It's a friggn' BB. You don't like a guy's opinion, so what. You think it's stupid, so what. Why is everyone so quick to make someone else out to be wrong? You disagree, be kind and say so. No need to attack an innocent post. You want to ask a question, say so, and be kind. If not, let it go and enjoy the conversation. Laugh at stupidity. It's in the eye of beholder. LOL.

That said, I can't say I never thought about it, but knowing most of who may show up, you can naturally start thinking about odds. Especially if you are looking to bet! LOL. Someone defects or scratches, you think more and differently. I ain't betting, but I guess I could be compelled to do so, LOL. Not being an expert, I can't see past the top 3 as of right now. I don't know enough about the others. I just don't know if that "key" race theory holds true, and if it does, what it means here. LOL.

[Scooteroo]

What's interesting about the race is, the top horses are all closers. How much pace are you going to get to run at in a 6-horse field, how slow will the pace be, which could compromise the closers. Sometimes when a confirmed closer is closer to the pace than normal, he doesn't have the same kind of run at the end as he normally would.

[Bitter Truth]

If you were to ask a 'quality' morning line odds maker like say the guy at Keeneland 18 days out
from a race to set odds, they would decline. They would site the lack of vital information at their
disposal to do so. It's still 15 days to the race. Any comment has to be prefaced with 'IF' this horse
runs or 'IF' this horse doesn't. A reasonable logical conclusion would be is [one again 'IF] Journalism,
Soverereignty, + Baeza all run that the former two will likely be nearly co-favorites with Baeza a couple
notches behind. That however is not setting 'ODDS' which would require the aforementioned required info.

[Scooteroo]

I agree with your odds assessment if the top 3 horses all run.

[Scooteroo]

Guys, seriously, nice high level conversation and it has to turn into petty BS. It's a friggn' BB. You don't like a guy's opinion, so what. You think it's stupid, so what. Why is everyone so quick to make someone else out to be wrong? You disagree, be kind and say so. No need to attack an innocent post. You want to ask a question, say so, and be kind. If not, let it go and enjoy the conversation. Laugh at stupidity. It's in the eye of beholder. LOL.

That said, I can't say I never thought about it, but knowing most of who may show up, you can naturally start thinking about odds. Especially if you are looking to bet! LOL. Someone defects or scratches, you think more and differently. I ain't betting, but I guess I could be compelled to do so, LOL. Not being an expert, I can't see past the top 3 as of right now. I don't know enough about the others. I just don't know if that "key" race theory holds true, and if it does, what it means here. LOL.

What would this site be without petty arguments, personal attacks and name calling, answer alot better, but it ain't happening anytime soon.

[Grandstand Handicapper]

What would this site be without petty arguments, personal attacks and name calling, answer alot better, but it ain't happening anytime soon.

It would be a lot better. A normal, healthy, quality BB, conducive to talking about the sport and industry. No, ain't happening.

[Grandstand Handicapper]

From DRF.....

"Gosger's defection now leaves a field of six for the Belmont, led by Journalism and the Kentucky Derby 1-3 finishers Sovereignty and Baeza."

[Scooteroo]

It would be a lot better. A normal, healthy, quality BB, conducive to talking about the sport and industry. No, ain't happening.

The biggest problem is certain people want to control the dialogue.

[Grandstand Handicapper]

I always wonder about "closers" in t-breds. Obviously if you have a one dimensional, stone cold closer, who can't break well, can't engage early, and so on-----it's obvious if he was forced to be closer to the pace he wouldn't have the gas in the tank to close like the norm. Take a horse out of their one dimensional only running style and it's not good, LOL. Exceptions to the norm of course.

But, every horse is different. IIRC, other than his maiden, Journalism had always been not too far off the pace. About 4 lengths or so. Sure, much smaller fields, totally different than the Derby, and so on. But, is he a stone cold, one dimensional closer? I don't think so. He was a big time closer in the Derby, LOL. Sovereignty maybe more, maybe much more. He had always been what, 5 to 6 off the pace? Yes, big time close in the Derby, and very different races. He was closing in the FL Derby and didn't get there, and also in the Fountain of Youth, and did just get up. Sure, much more of a closer, but does that relegate him to last and gapping the field, only being able to close into a very fast pace? IDK, LOL. Baeza, in only his second start, had the lead in the SA Derby and got beat by Journalism. Breaking his maiden he sat second, took over the lead and won. So, what does all this mean? I have no idea. I guess that's why they call it handicapping. LOL.

[Scooteroo]

Back in the old days when a certain horse was running in a winner over $15,000 race he always ran from behind and never got there, but when he dropped to non-winners of $15,000 in last 6 starts, he'd run on the front end and win. T-breds normally stick to the same running style no matter what. Route turf races for top horses usually turn into a 1/4 mile sprint home so if you're too far back, most likely, you're not going to win, but dirt race routes are totally different and the last 1/4 mile is usually the slowest of the race.

[dougie]

Scooteroo.....Gra ndstand Handicapper.....I think I've lost money money waiting for "closers" from "way back" in my 50 years of playing the thoroughbreds. LOL! It does happen as we all know it, but for me.....not very often. For some reason, i have done better with closers on the turf.

[Grandstand Handicapper]

Back in the old days when a certain horse was running in a winner over $15,000 race he always ran from behind and never got there, but when he dropped to non-winners of $15,000 in last 6 starts, he'd run on the front end and win. T-breds normally stick to the same running style no matter what. Route turf races for top horses usually turn into a 1/4 mile sprint home so if you're too far back, most likely, you're not going to win, but dirt race routes are totally different and the last 1/4 mile is usually the slowest of the race.

The conspiracy theorists will tell you the race was fixed. LOL. Seriously, I've seen plenty of horses who can be closer, in contention, whatever, in a lower class, but when they race in a higher class, they are further back. Some say it's the class, some say speed, some don't say, LOL. It happens. As Billy O' used to say, unfortunately you can't ask the horse why. LOL.