Early Belmont Stakes thoughts

[Grandstand Handicapper]

Shorter distance and $2m!

[gh2009]

What good is a 2: million purse if you're overmatched. There are plenty of other races for $500,000 to $750,000 where you'd have a better chance of winning. If you're looking to earn the most money and aren't one of the top horses I would duck them and run elsewhere.

[Grandstand Handicapper]

That's why there's 20-1 and longer shots in every race. Most people think they fit. LOL. Unless they just like being on the card. LOL.

[gh2009]

That's why there's 20-1 and longer shots in every race. Most people think they fit. LOL. Unless they just like being on the card. LOL.
[/quotI

I think a 20-1 shot has a better chance of winning the Derby because of the 20 horse field than a 10 horse field. I agree some owners want the prestige of running in a big race even though it's ill advised.. I'm just looking at things strictly from a business standpoint and what I would do. Let's say for an example a 20-1 shot has a 5 percent chance of winning, are those good odds, of course not, does it happen, occasionally but not often.

[Papillon]

   

    Sovereignty will and should be the favorite

doubt it

the public that saw what Journalism overcame and still win--he will be over bet, combined with the fact he was considerably lower odds in the Derby--i cannot see Sov being lower odds than Journalism--if they face off

Baeza is the wiseguy horse and will take plenty of money also

[dougie]

I think that Sovereignty will end up at 5/2 with Journalism at 3/1.

[Newt Lobell]

Still think Journalism will be the favorite based more on his win in the Preakness than his loss in the Derby. He's been the favorite in just about all his lifetime starts where Soveignty hasn't

It could go either way. Keep in mind the race is in New York, so perhaps NYRA bettors loyalty to Mott.. If we get the Baeza as well, I would not expect that the odds would be that far apar for all three horses.

[Pacer 2]

I think that Sovereignty will end up at 5/2 with Journalism at 3/1.

    I think Sovereignty will be 8-5 and Journalism 3-1

[Bitter Truth]

Seems extremely premature and frankly a little silly to be predicting odds when you don't know who
is actually racing, the size of the field or post positions.

[Pacer 2]

Seems extremely premature and frankly a little silly to be predicting odds when you don't know who
is actually racing, the size of the field or post positions.

   So you dont have to. You can wait.

[Papillon]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://amp.horseracingnation.com/news/Report_Gosger_will_skip_Belmont_for_Haskell_or_Jim_Dandy_123&ved=2ahUKEwjt_J3_6bWNAxX9F1kFHfbFHtMQ0PADKAB6BAgXEAE&usg=AOvVaw3ZxRR4kLC74wR9y5cFFZsx

[dougie]

With Gosger out of the Belmont, it looks like this could be a field of 5 or 6 going to post.

[gh2009]

Only a 6-horse field normally means a slow pace, which wouldn't be a good set-up for the closers.

[Pacer 2]

Seems extremely premature and frankly a little silly to be predicting odds when you don't know who
is actually racing, the size of the field or post positions.

  With an expected field of 5-6 it doesnt seem so premature does it?

[Bitter Truth]

Well yes dumb fuck it does. Like at the time you didn't know Gosger , a potential major
speed factor wasn't going to run. Still don't know how many, despite what you experts
'ANTICIPATE' , are going to run or post positions.