Author Topic: Karl...in to go...  (Read 14638 times)

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Grandstand Handicapper

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Karl...in to go...
« on: August 12, 2024, 01:45:35 PM »
Tomorrow at the Red Mile.

Boy, he was sooooo obviously off....he must have been sooooo lame....he was sooooo not going to race ever again....and his name is on the Hambo trophy, I am sure the purse check will clear (contrary to what people say about Gural and the Meadowlands) as the purse account obviously has money, and he is back in to go.

I have a feeling a certain poster here must have helped Jimmy and Nancy figure this horse out.  ;D

JIDGE

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Re: Karl...in to go...
« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2024, 02:05:33 PM »
With ideal conditions tomorrow I'm guessing he's shooting for a sub .50 record.

TimTimTimbo

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Re: Karl...in to go...
« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2024, 02:25:44 PM »
With ideal conditions tomorrow I'm guessing he's shooting for a sub .50 record.

Sub 49 I would think.

MIKE CAMPBELL

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Re: Karl...in to go...
« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2024, 02:30:46 PM »
Whoever does the morning line at The Red Mile needs to be examined for a brain malfunction. How is Karl 6-5? He was just 4-5 against Highland Kismet and TCI. He will be 2-5 or lower.

MIKE CAMPBELL

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Re: Karl...in to go...
« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2024, 02:33:32 PM »
Sub 49 I would think.
They may pull his shoes on the clay surface.

jupiter

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Re: Karl...in to go...
« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2024, 03:20:00 PM »
Weather looks good, rain should go north. If he gets beat it will be in world record time. But I don't think he will be beat, new WR, fastest mile ever by a 3 yr old Trotter.

jupiter

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Re: Karl...in to go...
« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2024, 03:22:48 PM »
85 degrees, and partly cloudy. Great Lexington weather

ferdinand the bull

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Re: Karl...in to go...
« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2024, 03:24:47 PM »
The Earl Beal goes for $300,000 a big purse to misd

JIDGE

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Re: Karl...in to go...
« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2024, 03:31:17 PM »
Sub 49 I would think.
Maybe, but that may be an October mission.

Papillon

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Re: Karl...in to go...
« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2024, 03:36:28 PM »
Maybe, but that may be an October mission.

agree depending on weather

he will pay $2.10 to win- vs that field--not facing much

TimTimTimbo

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Re: Karl...in to go...
« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2024, 03:40:21 PM »
85 degrees, and partly cloudy. Great Lexington weather

If conditions are perfect, then I predict he will go 1:48.2 if they are indeed chasing the record. That is being a little conservative.

I was lucky that my first ever horse won 24 races back home and he is the only trotter in NZ to go faster than the FFA pacers over 2600 meters. Yeah, that's a lot longer distance but he obliterated the trotter's record by 4 seconds and the pacers record by 1/5th of a second.

The record for a pacer was held by a horse named Steel Jaw from Aussie and he was named horse of the year. The stupidity of the voting was he shared that award with another trotter in yet my horse was named trotter of the year two years running and we beat the snot out of his trotting rival who was named co-horse of the year.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2024, 03:45:43 PM by TimTimTimbo »

Harness Stats

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Re: Karl...in to go...
« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2024, 05:51:52 PM »
I don't know about the record as he will need a rabbit to fly the half. Dame Good Time is the only one that has shown the early speed to do that but coming off a break they may not want to risk it. 

By the way his full sister just won her first start at 6 to 1.  Not worth her own thread but worth mentioning.

rainman2

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Re: Karl...in to go...
« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2024, 06:06:55 PM »
Whoever does the morning line at The Red Mile needs to be examined for a brain malfunction. How is Karl 6-5? He was just 4-5 against Highland Kismet and TCI. He will be 2-5 or lower.

Whoever did the morning line did a 'very generous' morning line compared to some others that do morning line at their respective tracks!

Welcome to harness racing today!

Since you are the 'mathematician' at horseplop, is it more difficult to do morning lines based on expected win pools?  some tracks have 2500-win pools while some other tacks have 75000-win pools.

Another issued that harness racing needs to address!

Harness Stats

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Re: Karl...in to go...
« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2024, 06:33:04 PM »
There is nothing scientific about morning lines.  It's all up to the linemaker and some never give anything serious and are without any thought.  Anytime you see all races where the lines start at 2 to 1 and go up the smallest number possible you know there is no thought behind it other than who they think the order of finish will be.   Expected win pool means nothing most have no clue what it will be.

Papillon

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Re: Karl...in to go...
« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2024, 06:37:24 PM »
There is nothing scientific about morning lines.  It's all up to the linemaker and some never give anything serious and are without any thought.  Anytime you see all races where the lines start at 2 to 1 and go up the smallest number possible you know there is no thought behind it other than who they think the order of finish will be.   Expected win pool means nothing most have no clue what it will be.

The morning linemakers are instructed to make the race look much more competitve than they are.

the theory is...if you list a horse at 1-9(like Karl will be)..people wont bet as much

Brower did this everyday

 

shout out

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