If he thought he knew who he was sitting (1) behind and lost faith or had more faith losing a few lengths to pull and go three wide, he definitely had the horse the horse on the end. The 5 shot up that damn rail and took full advantage. The 1 turned out to be better than Kakaley (2) expected.
Judgement time...
The 1 peters out and 2 gets caught behind a dead horse.
The 1 good horse very bad Holland drive lost because he didn't hug the wood and the 5 shot up the lane he opened and beat him.
The 2 Kakaley took the 2/3 most successful strategy route, clear path because he could of again been caught behind a dead horse and if not and the rail don't open he ain't winning.
Verdict: Coin flip, despite the 2/3 strategy in his favor he lost ground in the short stretch. In retrospect he likely would of won sitting in but 2 out 3 chances he could of got screwed.