The Secretariat Club, Friday, 9/19/25

[Trigger]

Moving on from the annual most anticipated handicapping insanity week we've just been through...I'm starting fresh, taking it easy, picking my spots.  I haven't been in acceptance lately getting fucked when I lose, whereas if I straight up lose from a bad predicted outcome going next race is easier, sometimes you just get screwed and need to stay focused...or quit the fucking game. 

Today a stakes at B@A, race 6 on the turf.  I think that track will be Fast and Firm.

Some decently looking stakes races this evening for me at Hoosier, 6-8, 10-13, and Tioga race 7.  I'm trying to avoid 2 yo trot races.  Both these tracks should be Fast.

Be back later with wagers if I feel good about anything.  Good luck! 

[bello]

B @ A had a huge front end speed bias on the turf yesterday.

[Trigger]

B @ A had a huge front end speed bias on the turf yesterday.

I haven't looked yet, my head is still reeling...Thank you Bello 

[Trigger]

If we get 2 days lead time next year we can crush the LBJ for several points of their pools.  The goal is to gear up toward the end, the last day is crucial.  Bello understanding the track bias like he did with B@A today, JT onsite, we can take down a big part of those pools, watching the post positions, literally coming up with cold numbers.  At the end it was easy.  I wasn't playing cold #s because I was broke, I wasn't gun shy, and I wasn't betting more on them to catch up but more so because I was disenfranchised with other stuff.

Factoring fuckups and corruption in is still a work in progress of me maturing as a gambler.  40 years, I'm not there yet.

[JT]

After going through 96 races trackside.. I'm spent.. but I might play some runners today.. It definitely would be "handicapping while hungover" Friday.My brother and I hit that massive 11 dollar pick 5 yesterday  .  We also hit a few of the smaller pick 4's.
Final stats LBJ WEEK

I always box a 1-2-4 trifecta every race
Bet $570
Won $314
Loss of $256 for the week

My brother and I
Bet $1152
Won $ 774
Loss of $378.. $189 each.

That last super high 5 hurt. My brother and I had the right 5 horses but wrong one on top.. it paid 417 bucks. Would have turned a losing week into a winning one. All in all not bad though. We struggled with the p4's and 5's  losing almost 400. Played a little ahead on the exotics.

[Trigger]

After going through 96 races trackside.. I'm spent.. but I might play some runners today.. It definitely would be "handicapping while hungover" Friday.My brother and I hit that massive 11 dollar pick 5 yesterday  .  We also hit a few of the smaller pick 4's.
Final stats LBJ WEEK

I always box a 1-2-4 trifecta every race
Bet $570
Won $314
Loss of $256 for the week

My brother and I
Bet $1152
Won $ 774
Loss of $378.. $189 each.

That last super high 5 hurt. My brother and I had the right 5 horses but wrong one on top.. it paid 417 bucks. Would have turned a losing week into a winning one. All in all not bad though. We struggled with the p4's and 5's  losing almost 400. Played a little ahead on the exotics.

Bello has had pretty good feel for putting larger bets with less combinations.  That's a nice confidence to have, when it works it carries forward really well. 

You come from that harness world but your a t-bred guy, I look forward to us getting back to that.

I'm hybrid, but I'm leaning away from harness, Bello obviously leans more to the harness but he's well rounded and experienced in either like you, and your success is off the charts.  But you do as you feel, and the LBJ is a tradition, honestly I'm glad I missed Sunday and it's because I wasn't paying attention.  LBJ burnt me out and I missed one night sleep this week because of it and running a business and family simultaneously, so I don't feel well.

Tomorrow is R & R & R, with the PA derby and anything else being that last R....acing!   

[JT]

Bello has had pretty good feel for putting larger bets with less combinations.  That's a nice confidence to have, when it works it carries forward really well. 

You come from that harness world but your a t-bred guy, I look forward to us getting back to that.

I'm hybrid, but I'm leaning away from harness, Bello obviously leans more to the harness but he's well rounded and experienced in either like you, and your success is off the charts.  But you do as you feel, and the LBJ is a tradition, honestly I'm glad I missed Sunday and it's because I wasn't paying attention.  LBJ burnt me out and I missed one night sleep this week because of it and running a business and family simultaneously, so I don't feel well.

Tomorrow is R & R & R, with the PA derby and anything else being that last R....acing!   

The problem with the pick 4's and 5's was most didn't pay much... we like to spread, bello is streamlined with a larger base bet, which is smart for harness. As I've said before I dont usually bet the P4's and 5's for harness.. LBJ week is the exception.The one I look back to in my autopsy that I fucked up was the one that paid over $1700.. on Tuesday. My brother and I had 4 of 5 and our single finished second. Totally different outcome for the week if that single wins. I come from a harness background, but more and more I bet the t-breds. Bigger pools is the main reason.Get some rest man. It is a long week.

[Trigger]

The problem with the pick 4's and 5's was most didn't pay much... we like to spread, bello is streamlined with a larger base bet, which is smart for harness. As I've said before I dont usually bet the P4's and 5's for harness.. LBJ week is the exception.The one I look back to in my autopsy that I fucked up was the one that paid over $1700.. on Tuesday. My brother and I had 4 of 5 and our single finished second. Totally different outcome for the week if that single wins. I come from a harness background, but more and more I bet the t-breds. Bigger pools is the main reason.Get some rest man. It is a long week.

I'll repeat something I said earlier in the week as your mention reminded me.

Saw multiple times 2 heavy favorites there finish 1-2 followed by long shot(s), and tris and supers paying phenomenal as the 3rd and 4th wagering choices sometimes an outside horse were either no good or tried and failed and just plummeted to the back.  Opportunities for 3rd place but especially 4th place were created for horses that had no logical chance at all and the all button on the end helped gamblers big time.  Huge tri and super payouts prior to yesterday.

[JT]

I'll repeat something I said earlier in the week as your mention reminded me.

Saw multiple times 2 heavy favorites there finish 1-2 followed by long shot(s), and tris and supers paying phenomenal as the 3rd and 4th wagering choices sometimes an outside horse were either no good or tried and failed and just plummeted to the back.  Opportunities for 3rd place but especially 4th place were created for horses that had no logical chance at all and the all button on the end helped gamblers big time.  Huge tri and super payouts prior to yesterday.

You are absolutely right. The favorite wins at Delaware over 50% of the time.. so the pick4's and 5's usually pay peanuts.. but the tris and supers and hi5's pay well. The all button for 3rd or 4th could be a good strategy

[bello]

Good luck today all. Yep you have me pegged. Im a minimalist in the amount of numpers I pick in horizontals which definitely is easier in harness where there are less variables per race and more mismatches. Much harder to do in the tbreds which is why I dont do very well. Timonium was more like a harness track for me with the 1/2 mile racing and speed domination.

I did have a great week at LBJ and taking Tuesday off helped. Races were mismatched but I found some decent horizontals.

Im likely going to be called away for granpa duties mid afternoon or sooner.

[bello]

Sep 19th 2025PHL - R1$20.00Win
12:25 PM7
BET TOTAL:$20.00
Serial Number:23368635726501
Sep 19th 2025PHL - R1$2.00Daily Double
12:25 PM7 / 2,6
BET TOTAL:$4.00
Serial Number:47231300122850
Sep 19th 2025PHL - R1$2.00Pick 4
12:24 PM7 / 2,6 / 3 / 7-8

Race 1 Harrahs above

[JT]

Good luck today to all.. back to the runners for me.  Try to get back some LBJ money..
Churchill Downs early Pick 5
1,2,3/6,7/5/1,3,4,5,6,9/3,4,7,9,10
$90 total
Gulfstream posting shortly

[bello]

So my post of the bet was an example of what I focus on when betting. Mostly win. Some exactas and always horizontal. I see my ADW which was DRF and is now !st pro started taking Churchill which I like better than Nyra. Did not handicap there today but now I can at least watch and root for JT

[JT]

So my post of the bet was an example of what I focus on when betting. Mostly win. Some exactas and always horizontal. I see my ADW which was DRF and is now !st pro started taking Churchill which I like better than Nyra. Did not handicap there today but now I can at least watch and root for JT

Out on that one already my friend.. 7 horse wins at 22-1.. my 2 and 3 got second and third

[JT]

Gulfstream Park early Pick 5
3/2,5,7,8,10/2,3,5,7,8/3,5/2,3,6,10
$100 bucks

Furthermore the failed pick 5 from Churchill I played the Pick 4.. same numbers for $30 bucks