SPA Thursday, Day XI, 7/24/25

[Trigger]

Ahhh another day at the SPA, from a remote air conditioned room, lol.  The weather foretasted at Saratoga Springs, NY is beautiful, hot and humid, very likely FAST and FIRM tracks surfaces.

Only one race for me there, the non-graded Curlin Stakes 1 1/8 mile, race 9 (544 pm).  I'm going 200 beans on this baby.  Good luck!

Race 9 -

1 - My projected winner, 3 races at the spa, 2/2 on a fast track, 0/1 his last on a muddy sprint leaving from the 9.  Chancer McPatrick (2 time g1 winner) makes one sweeping move at some point and this race is over.  Never ran on lasix, can't here and definitely the class of the race.  Looking for him to return to an earlier form, a reset, and wo's at the SPA since May.  Getting Irad and I'm not worried about the distance, last time Prat won with this horse was 10/5/24 so he moves to Brown's other here the #3.  9/2 morning line  , OK, sure! 

2 -  Can't race a lick without lasix historically, no would have to prove it can by doing it finally but not with my support.

3 - Horse was ridden by Davis as he was 2/2 in his career however horse couldn't be controlled and suffered an interference dq and is actually 1/2 lifetime record, Davis now on the 8 and Prat who was on the horse that got placed first this horse's last race is now on him.  No lasix, but 107 speed figure at the SPA, suggests the horse should be no worse than 4th, 5th or 6th is fine if my others show up lol.  6/5 ml odds  , OK, sure!

4 - McPeek's horse never materialized as a Graded stakes winner but on the lasix has thrived.  Now off lasix, shipped well into SPA, wo's nice, can race w/o lasix just not well so 2-4 finish is possible.

5 - 2nd, 2nd, 5th finishes in un-ugraded stakes company last 3 races w/o lasix taking a shot with this one too 2-4 finish at 30-1 ml odds.  No spa wo's just a Maryland shipper in.

6 - Crudo races good w/o lasix, Pletcher, celebrity owned and lightly raced.  Horse looks likely the co favorite but listed at 6-1 ml odds  .  On this horse's best day and the #1, Id go with Chancer, twice G1 winner, not a un-graded stakes winner. like this one.  Likely best contender as the runner up to the #1.

7 - Can't race a lick without lasix historically, no would have to prove it can by doing it finally but not with my support.

8 - Another Pletcher, Davis tossed off #3 ml favorite, trainer / jockey not gang busters together.  Horse has raced decent times not finishes in Grades stakes w/o lasix definitely a contender, figuring a 2-4 finish.

50 wp 1
4 ex 1/34568 (and reverse for 1.00)
2 ex 1/27
1 tri 1/34568 (and reverse for .50)
.50 sup 1/34568 (and reverse for .10)
5 w 4 (I follow this horse, sentimental wager)

[Trigger]

50 wp 1
4 ex 1/34568 (and reverse for 1.00)
2 ex 1/27
1 tri 1/34568 (and reverse for .50)
.50 sup 1/34568 (and reverse for .10)
5 w 4 (I follow this horse, sentimental wager)

Most these wagers have to be redone as the #5 and #8 are scratched that race.  Still Fast and Firm.  Here are the early scratches:

Scratches & Changes
Race    P#    Horse    Changes    Notes
2    #8    Sturdy    Scratched @ 10:07 AM    
 
4    #9    Yankee Doodle    Scratched @ 10:09 AM    
   #10    The Taco Lady    Scratched @ 10:09 AM    
 
5    #4    Yarrow    Scratched @ 10:10 AM    
   #8    My Man Matty    Scratched @ 10:10 AM    
   #9    What's Up Bro    Scratched @ 10:10 AM    
 
6    #6    Cha Cha Wren    Scratched @ 10:10 AM    
 
8    #8    Amanda's Folly    Scratched @ 10:11 AM    
   #9    Khali Magic    Scratched @ 10:11 AM    
   #10    Our Liberty Belle    Scratched @ 10:11 AM    
 
9    #5    Just a Fair Shake    Scratched @ 10:11 AM    
   #8    Uncaged    Scratched @ 10:11 AM    
 
10    #4    Findaname    Scratched @ 10:12 AM    
   #1A    Senegal    Scratched @ 10:12 AM    
   #2B    Adventurist    Scratched @ 10:12 AM    
   #3X    Magni    Scratched @ 10:12 AM    

[Trigger]

Went 221 beans on race 9:
50 wp 1
5 w 4 (sentimental)
10 ex 1/346
4 tri and sup 1/346 (1.00 346/1)
.50 supx 1346
4 ex 1/27


WP - Saratoga - R9 - $100
   
1st: 1
Bets (2) Amount: $50 Total: $100

Placed At: 07-24-2025 10:34 AM
EX - Saratoga - R9 - $30
   
1st: 1
   
2nd: 3, 4, 6
Bets (3) Amount: $10 Total: $30

Placed At: 07-24-2025 10:35 AM
TRI - Saratoga - R9 - $24
   
1st: 1
   
2nd: 3, 4, 6
   
3rd: 3, 4, 6
Bets (6) Amount: $4 Total: $24

Placed At: 07-24-2025 10:35 AM
SPR - Saratoga - R9 - $24
   
1st: 1
   
2nd: 3, 4, 6
   
3rd: 3, 4, 6
   
4th: 3, 4, 6
Bets (6) Amount: $4 Total: $24

Placed At: 07-24-2025 10:35 AM
WIN - Saratoga - R9 - $5
   
1st: 4
Bets (1) Amount: $5 Total: $5

Placed At: 07-24-2025 10:36 AM
EX - Saratoga - R9 - $6
   
1st: 3, 4, 6
   
2nd: 1
Bets (3) Amount: $2 Total: $6

Placed At: 07-24-2025 10:36 AM
TRI - Saratoga - R9 - $6
   
1st: 3, 4, 6
   
2nd: 1
   
3rd: 3, 4, 6
Bets (6) Amount: $1 Total: $6

Placed At: 07-24-2025 10:36 AM
SPR - Saratoga - R9 - $6
   
1st: 3, 4, 6
   
2nd: 1
   
3rd: 3, 4, 6
   
4th: 3, 4, 6
Bets (6) Amount: $1 Total: $6
Ticket #: dfb10-bbde1
Placed At: 07-24-2025 10:37 AM
SPR - Saratoga - R9 - $12
Superfecta Box    
: 1, 3, 4, 6
Bets (24) Amount: $0.50 Total: $12

Placed At: 07-24-2025 10:37 AM

EX - Saratoga - R9 - $8
   
1st: 1
   
2nd: 2, 7
Bets (2) Amount: $4 Total: $8

Placed At: 07-24-2025 10:40 AM

[JT]

I hate this bet but here it goes..
Pick 5: 1,3,5,6/3,4,6,7/5/3,4,5,6/1,3,6..$96 bucks

[Trigger]

I hate this bet but here it goes..
Pick 5: 1,3,5,6/3,4,6,7/5/3,4,5,6/1,3,6..$96 bucks

Very nice singe dude, here comes the 3/4 pole....!   

[bello]

i LIKE sERLINGS COMMENTARY. bUT IF JT WERE TO LISTEN TO HIM TALK himself out of the #5 because he was a short price, he could have ripped up ( proverbially) these days, before the race. Bring it home JT. Race 1 helped.

[JT]

i LIKE sERLINGS COMMENTARY. bUT IF JT WERE TO LISTEN TO HIM TALK himself out of the #5 because he was a short price, he could have ripped up ( proverbially) these days, before the race. Bring it home JT. Race 1 helped.

I like his comments as well, but I learned aloooong time ago to go with what YOU think. I've been talked out of to many horses back in the day. Yes the 5 in the 1st helped. Hopefully catch a price in race 4 with the 4,5,or 6.. I really like the 6. The 7 scares me

[Trigger]

Don't these numb nuts know how slow they're going up front in the 4th?

I learned something here, next time I put a mlw together, I'm going to back my single with a win bet equal to the total wager.  I usually back up my mlw with individual bets but this makes mathematical sense.

Forming, executing successful betting strategies is half the game, picking winners, outcomes, the other.

[BB-CAM-CAPS]

Don't these numb nuts know how slow they're going up front in the 4th?

I learned something here, next time I put a mlw together, I'm going to back my single with a win bet equal to the total wager.  I usually back up my mlw with individual bets but this makes mathematical sense.

Forming, executing successful betting strategies is half the game, picking winners, outcomes, the other.

In my opinion, the majority of jockeys aren't very bright. They also may be following the trainer's instructions who don't have a clue either.

[JT]

I like his comments as well, but I learned aloooong time ago to go with what YOU think. I've been talked out of to many horses back in the day. Yes the 5 in the 1st helped. Hopefully catch a price in race 4 with the 4,5,or 6.. I really like the 6. The 7 scares me

I hate being right about that 7.. 2 strides away for the 4

[JT]

If the 3 wins race 5 I'll be bummed $3,074 will pay.. 1 winning i could stomach it's only 500 bucks. Hopefully I miss the last leg lol

[Trigger]

If the 3 wins race 5 I'll be bummed $3,074 will pay.. 1 winning i could stomach it's only 500 bucks. Hopefully I miss the last leg lol

 

Same bs we think when we miss getting the bet in too.

[JT]

Let's try again... although I dislike this ticket more then the last one
Pick 5: 2-5/5,8,9/5/1,2,3/3,8,9,13..$72 bucks
This might be a quick loss.. trying to beat the favorite in race 6

[Trigger]

Went 221 beans on race 9:
50 wp 1
5 w 4 (sentimental)
10 ex 1/346
4 tri and sup 1/346 (1.00 346/1)
.50 supx 1346
4 ex 1/27

$385 profit!   

[JT]

$385 profit!   

Good Work!