Sovereignty and the Jim Dandy next Sunday

[Trigger]

Even though I think the cold punch 5-3 exacta, say for $1000 is the way to go. Let's say the exacta is worth $7 for $2, if you also play tri's 5/3/1-2-4 you would need it to pay $21 to match having $6 more on the exacta and I think the chances of that happening are slim at best.

5/3 $1 exacta is going to pay $6.  I think that or more. 

5/1 is going to be bet into oblivion, not eve $2 for a buck.  w/ Sandman $3.5.

[BB-CAM-CAPS]

My numbers are just hypothetical, but if you think it's going to be worth that much I would definitely stick with exactas. Even as the second lowest exacta with only 4 possible combinations, I'm still seeing under $10 for a  $2 dollar exacta. Whatever it's worth I hope you hit it

[Trigger]

My numbers are just hypothetical, but if you think it's going to be worth that much I would definitely stick with exactas. Even as the second lowest exacta with only 4 possible combinations, I'm still seeing under $10 for a  $2 dollar exacta. Whatever it's worth I hope you hit it

You couldn't strategize more if we owned the horses and were real serious gamblers and I'm just at the very bottom of being a vip.

We did a race call, closing odds...I was right on target with Journalism and Gosger 2/6 on a fast track, go back to that thread.  $1 ex $5.90, bigger field there but Mo Plex will be 4th choice in betting.

Rispoli is getting a whip violation, just out now.

[BB-CAM-CAPS]

We have overanalyzed the race to death, which usually isn't a good thing and have stated our cases. We disagree on a few things which is okay, because right or wrong we're each entitled to our opinion. I just downloaded the PP's on Equibase to get a better feel for the race, but most likely will still just be a spectator.

[Trigger]

We have overanalyzed the race to death, which usually isn't a good thing and have stated our cases. We disagree on a few things which is okay, because right or wrong we're each entitled to our opinion. I just downloaded the PP's on Equibase to get a better feel for the race, but most likely will still just be a spectator.

Take a look at the Chantilly race payoffs and the Mohawk thread from last night.

The 25 was easy could of been nothing but and was, I reached too far with 2 horses that could of been tossed, the 1 for being a crap in that company, the 6 for a huge race as shipping back.  Now the exacta alone gave me a 50% profit but that payoff was shit, the tri and the sup were unreal payouts in that 6 horse field.

[BB-CAM-CAPS]

I didn't see the race and you can't compare one race to another, but the tri and super were both good prices. Until you see the actual exacta probable's, it's all speculation on our part what it's going to pay if it comes in. I stand by my prior comment about not playing superfectas in the race, but it's your money. As a bettor, I don't like keying or singling 1-5 or 1-9 shots in anything because in most cases you're limiting your payoff. When it comes to Pick 3's, Pick 4's or Pick 5's, if there's a 1-9 shot in the first leg unless I think I can beat him I'll pass. We just have different philosophies on how we like to bet which is normal.

[Trigger]

I didn't see the race and you can't compare one race to another, but the tri and super were both good prices. Until you see the actual exacta probable's, it's all speculation on our part what it's going to pay if it comes in. I stand by my prior comment about not playing superfectas in the race, but it's your money. As a bettor, I don't like keying or singling 1-5 or 1-9 shots in anything because in most cases you're limiting your payoff. When it comes to Pick 3's, Pick 4's or Pick 5's, if there's a 1-9 shot in the first leg unless I think I can beat him I'll pass. We just have different philosophies on how we like to bet which is normal.

If the exacta probable is $8 for $1 on a 53, wow, that is hard not want to go all the money on that, I get it.

But there are strange betting patterns and unfortunately no probables given on tris and sups, but we've both been right and wrong based on history.

Let it ride lol!   

[Newt Lobell]

Let's do fucking an abridged highlighted race call. 

They're all in....and they're off in the 61st running of the Jim Dandy Stakes.

Like a shot out of cannon Baeza leaves the gate.

Baeza to the 1/2 in 45 4/5 seconds, Sovereignty is tracking him in second 4 lengths off this hot pace.

3/4's in 110 flat, it's a blistering pace set by Baeza.  And -  here - comes - Sovereignty, he inhales Baeza and he starts to pull away going around the far turn, Baeza is all out to hold second and here come the others.

Sovereignty to the mile in 134 2/5 in front by 12, with an 1/8th of a mile to go it's a race for the minor spoils.  Sandman takes 2nd, Mo Plex in 3rd, Junior Alvarado looks back and he's all alone easing up Sovereignty to the wire, overtaking Sandman is Mo Plex in 2nd.  Sovereignty wins by 10 , and it'll be a photo for 3rd between Sandman and Hill Road.  Baeza finishing 5th and already headed back to Cali!

Sovereignty in 147 4/5! 

With Mo Plex having the fastest TF early pace figures, he projects to be on the lead though I would not put it past Berrios to gun Baeza from the rail. If I were Berrios, I would set the pace as there is really no one, except Mo Plex to challenge early.

I don't see Sovereignty at 1-9, more like 2-5 with Baeza a clear second choice at 4-1.

The cut back to a mile and an eighth raises a few questions. Whereas, this is a prep for Sovereignty's Travers conquest, I can't help but recall the conservative handling in the Florida Derby when Sovereignty was second to Tappan Street. You can argue that Sovereignty is a much better horse today and I would not disagree.

The thought of seeing Baeza on the lead intrigues me as his second to Journalism in the SA Derby where he was closer to the lead, and quite frankly, his best effort to date, makes him a legitimate contender. The cutback to 9F will certainly benefit him.

As for Mo Plex, he will need to get much faster to defeat Baeza. Hill Road and Sandman are tosses,

[Trigger]

What the fuck is a Baeza?   

A reminder, who the mother fucker in charge of the 3 yo universe!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6P8usX-dNg

Now your going to see the best currently racing dirt horse on the planet start to form, see ya Saturday at the SPA! 

[Papillon]

NO show wagering

probably still over $100k on Sovreignty in the place pool

[Trigger]

NO show wagering

probably still over $100k on Sovreignty in the place pool

Definitely over, I'd say close to $1m or over that. 

Fake ass 3    Strategic Focus    $270,388    $106,878    $74,749

That's today and that sucker ass bitch finished 3rd.  Traver's Day, btw some rain on Friday, about 1/3 of an inch, Saturday looks glorious!   

[Papillon]

Definitely over, I'd say close to $1m or over that. 

Fake ass 3    Strategic Focus    $270,388    $106,878    $74,749

That's today and that sucker ass bitch finished 3rd.  Traver's Day, btw some rain on Friday, about 1/3 of an inch, Saturday looks glorious!   

they wont bet that heavy in the place pool

my prediction for the 5-3 exacta will pay between $9-10 for a $2 investment-and I do feel Moplex is the lone speed and will hold on for 2nd-but I wont be betting the race

[Trigger]

they wont bet that heavy in the place pool

my prediction for the 5-3 exacta will pay between $9-10 for a $2 investment-and I do feel Moplex is the lone speed and will hold on for 2nd-but I wont be betting the race

I got the over on a million in Sovereignty's place pool and you go the under, should we place a personal prop wager on it?

How about one of us has to change our screen name for one active whole day to - Sovereigntyplop? 

[Papillon]

I got the over on a million in Sovereignty's place pool and you go the under, should we place a personal prop wager on it?

How about one of us has to change our screen name for one active whole day to - Sovereigntyplop? 

sure sounds good--


I will make it easier for you-make it $500k over/under and I will change my screen name for one week

if I win--you just change your name for 1 day

[Trigger]

sure sounds good--


I will make it easier for you-make it $500k over/under and I will change my screen name for one week

if I win--you just change your name for 1 day

Let's do $750k and 1 week for the loser, right down the middle 500k / 1mil fair on both?

I'm yes and and taking the over on $750K that gets bet on PLACE on Sovereignty!