Sovereignty and the Jim Dandy next Sunday

[gh2009]

I'm much more of a harness fan, but am going because I was invited and have never been there before.

[Trigger]

I'm much more of a harness fan, but am going because I was invited and have never been there before.

Hambo the week before, boy the next couple of weeks you'll be busy studying and then a t-bred SPA vacay, sounds awesome!

[gh2009]

Trifectas and supers in a 5-horse field with a 1-9 shot, I don't know about that. If you like 5-3, why not just cold punch the exacta? Tracks shouldn't even have a superfecta in a 5-horse field.

[Trigger]

Trifectas and supers in a 5-horse field with a 1-9 shot, I don't know about that. If you like 5-3, why not just cold punch the exacta? Tracks shouldn't even have a superfecta in a 5-horse field.

The 10th race available wagers on JD:

Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 10 & 11 Pick 3 ($1) (10-12)

You make a valid point, unfortunately in T-bred exotics usually you see better than the historical logical payoffs that you see in harness for these type proportional situations.

Hundreds of thousands, millions in stupid money.

Let's see it come in first lol, and then we'll see.

[gh2009]

Hypothetically, say 5-3 pays $7 for $2, the tri pays $14 for $2, and the super $20 for $2. How would you make out with your scenario if it came in compared to just cold punching the exacta for $1000?

[gh2009]

The 10th race available wagers on JD:

Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 10 & 11 Pick 3 ($1) (10-12)

You make a valid point, unfortunately in T-bred exotics usually you see better than the historical logical payoffs that you see in harness for these type proportional situations.

Hundreds of thousands, millions in stupid money.

Let's see it come in first lol, and then we'll see.


Obviously the Kentucky Derby has the most stupid money with a 20-horse field, but in a 5 horse field it's limited.

[Trigger]

I'll go another $600 without Baeza.

This:

$200 tri 5/3/24
$100 sup 5/3/24/24

Total $2500 (Inc. $200 nutty savers to be released soon.   )

Thanks Maxx!   

[gh2009]

I'll go another $600 without Baeza.

This:

$200 tri 5/3/24
$100 sup 5/3/24/24

Total $2500 (Inc. $200 nutty savers to be released soon.   )

Thanks Maxx!   


I'm not trying to talk you into anything. The reason I don't like your superfecta bet is because there are only 6 possible combinations with 5-3 so no matter who finishes 3rd or 4th it won't pay anything, just my opinion.

[Trigger]

You didn't talk me into it, I was looking at some past results, small field, prohibitive fav on top, and your math is correct.  I appreciate you mentioning it, regardless of the outcome.

2 combos, cost / result avg.  This works!   

[gh2009]

I'm not that big of a bettor anymore because it always seemed like when I made a big bet a horse who shows nothing wakes up from the dead and runs the race of his life, then reverts back to being an also ran again. I would be sick to my stomach if I lost $2500 on a race.

[Papillon]

No scratches, it's fast I'm committing $1900, $1700 like this and the savers ($200) I'll post later.

$500 exacta 53
$200 tri 53a
$100 sup 53aa

Good luck!

strictly as a bettor-i would just play the $1700 and do a cold exacta 5-3 if that's what you like

the takeout goes up for trifectas and supers also

[gh2009]

When simulcasting first started a long time ago the programs used to have the takeouts for alot of the tracks. These days most tracks don't want you to know what the takeout is except when it's a lower rate on a Pick 4 or Pick 5.

[Trigger]

strictly as a bettor-i would just play the $1700 and do a cold exacta 5-3 if that's what you like

the takeout goes up for trifectas and supers also

I'm curios if I nailed the odds, as that should dictate too.

Sups with 6 way, 2 way, tris with 3 way 2 way I think is safe as it avgs 4 way on sups and 2.5 ways on tri.  A break even on a min bet sup would be .40 & a break even on a tri would be 1.25.

I'm gonna let it roll this time because of the curse of changing lol, I think you Maxx make perfect sense though.

[Trigger]

Thank you. The reason why I say just do the cold punch exacta for say $1000 is because if 5-3 doesn't come in you'll lose less money

Ya haven't seen my $200 super insurance saver bets LOL!

Anyway let's see what the exacta probable payoff is.

It's a high risk investment, it's fun, it can't hurt more than losing $6k on a kyd.

If I lose, I'll figure it out and regroup.

One bet opposed, the 2-3k I bet a week.

Usually I've been doing ok, breaking, and losing a couple hundred, and the rebates evened it all out.

Last 2 weeks was a 2500 hit and that's with hitting all but the super in the Haskell pretty good.  Had some nice scores earlier on in the KYD this year, and their future pools, it's all good.

[gh2009]

Even though I think the cold punch 5-3 exacta, say for $1000 is the way to go. Let's say the exacta is worth $7 for $2, if you also play tri's 5/3/1-2-4 you would need it to pay $21 to match having $6 more on the exacta and I think the chances of that happening are slim at best.