Sovereignty and the Jim Dandy next Sunday

[dougie]

It's a small 5 horse field going in next weeks Jim Dandy with Sovereignty the big-time chalk. Here's the field.....

Baeza............ ..Berrios
Sandman.........J . Ortiz
Mo Plex............F ranco
Hill Road..........I. Ortiz, Jr.
Sovereignty...... Alvarado

It's a pretty good field. I think Mo Plex is the speed here with Baeza sitting close off that front runner.
Mo Plex is good, but I think he a notch or two below the favorite. Sandman will be getting blinkers and i'm
not sure how that will go. And then there's Hill Prince who was 4th in the Belmont. Many will see this as a "prep" for Sovereignty's Travers bid. But who know's until they run this race. I'm rooting for the favorite.

[Trigger]

Just need the first 2 finishers, they have tris and sups lol!

Unlike the Florida Derby where Sovereignty had the 10 hole and made the big move it was too late.  5 hole, 124lbs now some relief, bigger, stronger faster, fresh and went right to training 20 days after last race - 147 4/5 the winning predicted time - a monster of win - and enough of one to keep Journalism away from the SPA.

Weather 1 week out too early but for Sovereignty, no matter he wins either way.

Mo Plex won in the easiest type of ways, easiest, tapped twice on the left to gear up and pushed to quicken with ease.  That was from the 10 hole.  Again the 10 hole on a 2 turn track mile and an 1/8th.

Being we saw the absolutely balls to the walls, Blinkers won't help Sandman he didn't need them before and he ran past horses and just needed to be straightened out, Baeza at 120 lbs will be 2nd in betting but no not a SPA horse his June 2 wo there was crap and showed this ain't Cali baby, Hill Road urged for big win at the PP, came off the pace no, hoping for 3rd as he might be 5th place in odds.

53 Don't need to think any further unless track condition changes and where Mo Plex has no wet races, maybe a wo at sometime.

53 ex
53A tri
53AA sup

Predicted going off odds:

Sovereignty 1/9
Baeza 9/2
Sandman 8-1
Mo Plex 14-1
Hill Road 20-1

Good night and good luck!

[Papillon]

that seems like a pretty accurate final odds

the horses who finished behind Mo Plex have come back and run solid races-he might draw some action

[Trigger]

that seems like a pretty accurate final odds

the horses who finished behind Mo Plex have come back and run solid races-he might draw some action

That I didn't know about those that ran back, good info that's been flying well with logic historically.

Thanks Papi!

If they're all running, it's fast, I'm going $1900 on the JD!   

[Trigger]

Let's do fucking an abridged highlighted race call. 

They're all in....and they're off in the 61st running of the Jim Dandy Stakes.

Like a shot out of cannon Baeza leaves the gate.

Baeza to the 1/2 in 45 4/5 seconds, Sovereignty is tracking him in second 4 lengths off this hot pace.

3/4's in 110 flat, it's a blistering pace set by Baeza.  And -  here - comes - Sovereignty, he inhales Baeza and he starts to pull away going around the far turn, Baeza is all out to hold second and here come the others.

Sovereignty to the mile in 134 2/5 in front by 12, with an 1/8th of a mile to go it's a race for the minor spoils.  Sandman takes 2nd, Mo Plex in 3rd, Junior Alvarado looks back and he's all alone easing up Sovereignty to the wire, overtaking Sandman is Mo Plex in 2nd.  Sovereignty wins by 10 , and it'll be a photo for 3rd between Sandman and Hill Road.  Baeza finishing 5th and already headed back to Cali!

Sovereignty in 147 4/5! 

[LUCPARK]

Is the race Saturday or Sunday?

[JT]

Is the race Saturday or Sunday?

Saturday

[gh2009]

Let's do fucking an abridged highlighted race call. 

They're all in....and they're off in the 61st running of the Jim Dandy Stakes.

Like a shot out of cannon Baeza leaves the gate.

Baeza to the 1/2 in 45 4/5 seconds, Sovereignty is tracking him in second 4 lengths off this hot pace.

3/4's in 110 flat, it's a blistering pace set by Baeza.  And -  here - comes - Sovereignty, he inhales Baeza and he starts to pull away going around the far turn, Baeza is all out to hold second and here come the others.

Sovereignty to the mile in 134 2/5 in front by 12, with an 1/8th of a mile to go it's a race for the minor spoils.  Sandman takes 2nd, Mo Plex in 3rd, Junior Alvarado looks back and he's all alone easing up Sovereignty to the wire, overtaking Sandman is Mo Plex in 2nd.  Sovereignty wins by 10 , and it'll be a photo for 3rd between Sandman and Hill Road.  Baeza finishing 5th and already headed back to Cali!

Sovereignty in 147 4/5! 

Expecting a 45 4/5 half in a 5-horse field is asking alot, and why would Sovereignty, a proven closer even want to change his running style and be that close to a fast pace.

[Trigger]

Expecting a 45 4/5 half in a 5-horse field is asking alot, and why would Sovereignty, a proven closer even want to track a hot pace?

Before Baeza's last 2 races in the east coast on wet tracks was the SA Derby, if fast like then, rail, low weight, back to 1 1/8 he'll be on the muscle.

Florida Derby was a million years ago, he's a different horse, for Sovereignty then though he had the 10 hole, more time and he wins it.

It's all about position and opportunity, and this race indicates my race call strategy.  You don't agree, hey it's excellent you put it out there.  Takes balls to make predictions publicly.

Sandman and Hill Road are closers, Mo Plex I think has to pace differently with the upgrade to this company so he goes back a bit.  Sovereignty is not a closer, last race proved that, he's a versatile monster....Believ e it or not, but prepare yourself to see it! 

[gh2009]

My main point was I don't feel the fractions will be that quick in a 5-horse field. As a horseplayer, in a small field I don't like my horse that close if there's a fast pace because most likely the front runner will come back to you. I rarely comment about racing strategy because you're always going to have people who disagree which is okay, remember they're just opinions. I'll be at Saratoga for the 1st time ever from August 5-9.

[dougie]

Maxx Bucknell.....you will love it! A truly great experience.

[gh2009]

There are 4 of us going, one of them is a big bettor on NYRA, and they're comping him a suite at Homewood Suites in Saratoga Springs.

[Trigger]

My main point was I don't feel the fractions will be that quick in a 5-horse field. As a horseplayer, in a small field I don't like my horse that close if there's a fast pace because most likely the front runner will come back to you. I rarely comment about racing strategy because you're always going to have people who disagree which is okay, remember they're just opinions. I'll be at Saratoga for the 1st time ever from August 5-9.

For these going longer routes, more weight now less, 1 1/8 is not as a much the challenge as the SPA track is anymore.

Berrios back on Baeza, look at the pps again on him, just for giggles.

We'll stick with our instincts on this one.

Have a great time, you wrap up with a couple of big stakes on Saturday the 9th - Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G2T), Sword Dancer (G1T) and you'll have the Arlington Millions race and that card at Colonial Downs on the simulcast!   

[gh2009]

Unless you like someone else, it's probably better just to watch the race.

[Trigger]

Unless you like someone else, it's probably better just to watch the race.

No scratches, it's fast I'm committing $1900, $1700 like this and the savers ($200) I'll post later.

$500 exacta 53
$200 tri 53a
$100 sup 53aa

Good luck!