SPA Thursday, Day VI, 7/17/25

[Trigger]

Post Time    1:10 PM
Main    Fast
Turf    Firm

Scratches & Changes
Race    P#    Horse    Changes    Notes
1    #1    Timaeus    Scratched @ 10:42 AM    
   #2    Bob John Ray    Scratched @ 10:42 AM    
 
2    #1X    Alzero    Scratched @ 10:42 AM    
 
3    #1    River of Time    Scratched @ 10:42 AM    
 
5    #4    Army Proud    Scratched @ 10:43 AM    


More to come!   

[Trigger]

Something went very wrong across the board for all of us yesterday it was a struggle to hit the board muchless find a winner.

So I have reversed engineered the outcome of the races yesterday (2-9) and tried to see what stood out in the form, what possibly was been missed.  I'll release that in about 30 minutes from this post.

Going forward...I'm going to only bet horses and situations I'm following, no chasing, however to stay fresh I'll handicap I'll bet at least one race at the SPA a day if it is a stakes race, or other race of interest.

Today Race 3, Turf Stakes.

#1 scratched, so it's a 5 horse field.

I'll go with the 3 & 6.

Almost any horse therein an easy argument be made to win or lose, so...

#3 is value, and #6 is logical.

Good luck!

[Trigger]

Yesterday's (7/16/25 SPA) post race analysis and going back to the past performances i.e. the Form.

Looking for possibly missed / overlooked, unusual, standout, patterns and things that help us build patterns going forward:

Race 2 - #4 winner -  laid off 1y9m came back to the SPA just for one workout 6/23/25 and other workouts not there, Lindy Farms and other.  First time gelding and lasix for this 6 figure purchase.  Long layoff not  bothered by high weight.  3 solid whip taps no one was passing.  This gelding, Innate deserves to be followed.

Race 3 - #3 (1st) #2(2nd) #1(4th) - All had been switched to better trainer and all coming off a layoff.

Race 4 - #5 winner -  failed at 3/5 at SPA last race from outside, now inside, same capable trainer / jockey.

Race 5 - #11 winner - was AE, workouts at Presque de Isles.

Race 6 - #8 winner - Came from higher claimers - dropped, last race same with Saez at Churchill, stuck with horse.

Race 7 - #2 winner - Failed at 1/5 last race, all finishes were placings, very slow workouts coming in.

Race 8 - #8 winner - High weight (most others too) but super slow workouts, reunion with Saez from Churchill.

Race 9 - #2 winner - inside post from last, same trainer / jockey who is actually low % turf, last 3 workouts from last race were like a countdown, improving each time.

[bello]

Finally have an entire day without running out. That means more $$ to lose. Playing my main track ( meadows) today and Harrahs PA 2 year old steak races.

Hopefully they will compensate for SPA losses.

Race 1.....1a and 3 are both the speed. If they both go head to head I am dead. Either can also stalk. I am going to hope the line up and do not duel early

Race 11   boxing 1a/3

[bello]

WELL THEY FOLLOWED the script but no match for another Churchill winning shipper who jogged

[bello]

Race 2

#9  Annexperience...A fter three straight sprints , colt stretches out today. It would not surprise me if he goes to the top. Bred to go longer and jock upgrade

#2 and #3 should both get the coveted covered up trip on the rail and will be dangerous.

[bello]

Race 2

#9  Annexperience...A fter three straight sprints , colt stretches out today. It would not surprise me if he goes to the top. Bred to go longer and jock upgrade

#2 and #3 should both get the coveted covered up trip on the rail and will be dangerous.

#9 wins by a mile.  9-3 exacta pays $56  #2  buried,room too late for 4th.

Race 3  3 3 and  6 both have run well in open company. NY bred only here   box 36

[bello]

What a great ride by Chris Eliot in race 3

[bello]

Race 4
#4 Arcadian...Newly claimed by Linda. Stone cold closer. Need the race to fall apart. Tossing big favorite Shlomo off huge class drop into a cheap claimer.

[Calhoun]

I have no free losers to offer up today. 

Good luck.

[bello]

I have no free losers to offer up today. 

Good luck.

I'll cover you. I have plenty.

[Trigger]

I have no free losers to offer up today. 

Good luck.

 

Free is too expensive sometimes lol.

Your pp earned your right to tout and to be taken seriously.  ROI!

I'm done there until major stakes races, horses / situations following, trying to find patterns to otherwise re-engage, and will be listening to what others have to say.

Good Luck!

[dougie]

Pretty interesting interview after the 4th race at the Spa with winning owner Roddy J. Valente. His #2 horse, Macaw, won by a whisker in a head Bob with the #7 Schlomo. He was talking about being a owner and how "humbling" the game can be.

[bello]

Pretty interesting interview after the 4th race at the Spa with winning owner Roddy J. Valente. His #2 horse, Macaw, won by a whisker in a head Bob with the #7 Schlomo. He was talking about being a owner and how "humbling" the game can be.

Love the Saratoga Live interviews. Ever see Jeremiah and his kids do the twist after a win. Classic.

[bello]

Race 5

#8...Last race in MSW at CD. Raced here twice last year in MSW and did good enough to beat these cheap claimer

#2 Owned and trained by Linda Rice who drops him to the level of the claim. Very dangerous