Saturday Spa Fever, Day III, 0712/25

[Trigger]

Yesterday I said Fast and Firm, was Fast and Good
Today, Fast and Firm I think, prepare for anything.  Good luck!

Studying the two Graded stakes races at the SPA, the G2 Race 8 (C/H/G) & the G1 Race 11 (F/M).

Selections:  big 7/5/2/136,  7/5/1/236,   
                  lighter 5/7/2/136,   5/7/1/236
                  tiny 7/12/5/1236,   12/7/5/1236

Race 8

(9, 10, 11 MTO and assuming they'll be scratched)

8 - Hard to believe the connections lost faith in this one quick 6 mos ago, and in $35k claimers.  Won, actually won twice with Irad and Davis but JC is their stakes go to.  Was climbing up the speed figure ranks and then hit a gd track, ehhh.  Valiant 4th in that G1 turf.  Will be ignored because of competition, and sufficient speed inside of the gelding means, speed duel and die, outside trip or, 0/2 at SPA is a no.

7 - G3, G2, G1 winner, SPA record 4-1-0-3 $694k.  Wins on firm, gd turf, comes ready for these, best in the world - no, best on his best day, good on his best day beats these.  One weakness is will he stalk a fast pace, if yes, is his somewhat kryptonite.  With these a strong fast pace, hell no.  This one is a 2/5 winner or an unlikely 2nd place upset.

6 - Very lightly raced 7yo Gelding makes him interesting with a monster speed figure last race, now an 1/8th shorter, 2lbs less and Irad who actually jumps off 4 for this one.  You have to feel he can breath the same air as Far Bridge with all that, was a $16k Tampa claimer 15 mos ago.  A 4th finish is big for this one.

5 - Won a G2 in 23' at 1 1/16 turf, multiple Grades stakes placed.  Has had 1.5 month since an AW race in Canada, trainer's home turf, and that was first race back from an 8 mo layoff and when asked the horse who was way off the pace and glided at high speed.  Now back here on the turf, wow SPA 0/2 but both of those seconds.  Far Bridge's running mate here. 

4 -  Won 3 in a row, $1.3 mil purchase, Pletcher pupil, then stopped after getting spooked by horses making move coming off the turn with Irad last race a G1 and took money, Irad jumped to the 6 here.  They'll send this horse to the lead, they have no choice.  The horse will try to rate and might then out run expectations and may finish behind Irad's other horse, around 5th, 6th.  They've been patient with this one, with first race in Dec 24' as a 3yo, likely time to find this one only AW stakes races where he is 2/2, and that would likely be abroad.  Maybe will scratch too.

3 - 6 yo Horse hasn't won a race since his second to last Spa attempt 2 years ago called the John's Call Stakes (Listed) big speed figure and long race like 1 5/8 miles.  0/9 since.  Throw out last race here at the SPA on the slop.  Another if really ready on his best day finishes 4th.

2 - Davis won both times on this horse and at the SPA making that record also 2/2.  Don't be confused this is Davis' horse, not Irad, Davis jumped off this horse in Oct 24' and won a G3 with another horse.  This horse's heritage is all turf, will be his 9th lifetime race, Shadwell Stable, Pletcher.  I like this one, could be a surprise.

1 - 8yo Gelding with the name Staring Over lol, 124 lbs might be a problem, then again won a G2 last year at this distance in Hallandale, FL with 122 lbs.  Franco looks like the go to for trainer Miss B.R. here.  Forgive the 0/1 SPA was at 1 1/16 gd track, the race was just starting for this one there.  Horse's 6th race in 2 years.  Maybe getting better or at least capable with age. 

[Trigger]

Race 11

Diana Stakes

Even comes with a Wikipedia page with some interesting stats:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diana_Stakes

One stat being in the last 10 years Chad Brown won this race, The Diana G1, 8 fucking times.  That is 8/10, UNREAL.  Here Chad Brown has the #4 & #5, both who ran 1-2 on a yielding Saratoga course a month ago.

Then we have the #1, a record of 10-7-1-2, $1.784 mil and 2 races at the SPA a win and a second earning $452k.  What a beauty She Feels Pretty is, makes you want to sing the song ...
"I feel pretty, Oh, so pretty, I feel pretty and witty and bright, And I pity Any girl who isn't me tonight."

Then we have these shippers coming out of Santa Anita, who finished 1-2 their last, the #6 & #3. 

Every one of these awesome ladies is a Graded Stakes winner and at least if not a G1 winner G1 stakes placer.

Ok, we can go home now, lol...

Not so fast!

I do believe they brought #2 Choisya to the states for a reason, her CORONATION!

The connections are only the Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai (besides Rabbah Bloodstock, owns Godolphin too), and his trainer who actually has also run global racing operations for this owner.

This Mare was dicking around in Great Britain, wins both races at Meydan in front of her owner, then comes here wins a GRADE 1 at Keenland (was a disallowed objection that race against her).  Saez just pulled her out of that yielding race last month here, wasn't her track and wasn't what she came here to do.  My feeling is she was sent here to race on a FIRM course or as FIRM as it can get. 

Her last workout:  04Jly Sar tr.t 4f fm :46 3/5 B 3/66, I think she came out of that yielding race ok.

That she stalks, and then devours them today!

My selections are: 2 / ALL (1,3,4,5,6)   

[bello]

SLOPPY TRACK....RACES 5 6 9 12 OFF TURF

[Papillon]

SLOPPY TRACK....RACES 5 6 9 12 OFF TURF

shit--this means a ton of scratches

I will post a few after I see what's left

[Trigger]

Race 8 - Likely will stay on turf, if so 1,5,8 are scratched if MTO's scratch I'm going with 7/2/36 big 2/7/36 small - chalky chalk sadly.

Race 11 - So far no scratches listed, and ruins my theory on the #2 if Turf is not graded FIRM or just a tad lower like a high GOOD, but we'll see what the turf condition is by 6:14pm tonight.

[Papillon]

race 2...#7 Asking

first time starters certainly not what Mott does best-but this one just had a bullet workout on Monday and draws the golden outside post--expect a decent price hopefully around 9/2

race 3--#6 Art Fair--finally draws a decent post and has plenty of speed-hoping to lead every step of the way

race 4--#6 Ceepeegee--trainer Dan Ward does well dropping off a win and has speed to the outside-hopefully wires the field

[Trigger]

The #6 is scratched in the 11th, now down to 5 ladies.

[bello]

rACE 1

#4 Tagermeen..1.4 million dollar yearling for Asmussun. Has three full sibling, all winners especially Taraz who was a monster

Race 2
#3  FDancy Footwork...Curlin firster for red hot Amelia

#5Ginger Ale
#6 Atropa

Both out of Into Mischief and sharp trainers and jocks

Race 3
#6 Art Fair...Speedy will get lead. Slop helps
#7 Jerr7ys Out...likes slop and will be close by #6 and ready to pounce

[Trigger]

Race 8 down to 4 horses and it let me put in tris and sups likely because the MTO's are still up.

$20 tri 726, $20 sup 7264
$5 tri 276, $5 sup 2764

I have a feeling I'll be getting a refund and I'm not going to change it $40 and $10 exactas unless the payouts are in high single digits, and they won't be!

Race 11

$20 w 2
$10 ex 2/a
$2 tri 2/a/a
$1 sup 2/a/a/a
$4 dd 2/a

[Papillon]

Race 8 down to 4 horses and it let me put in tris and sups likely because the MTO's are still up.

$20 tri 726, $20 sup 7264
$5 tri 276, $5 sup 2764

I have a feeling I'll be getting a refund and I'm not going to change it $40 and $10 exactas unless the payouts are in high single digits, and they won't be!

Race 11

$20 w 2
$10 ex 2/a
$2 tri 2/a/a
$1 sup 2/a/a/a
$4 dd 2/a

you will be refunded for tris and supers in race 8

[Trigger]

you will be refunded for tris and supers in race 8

I cancelled the 8th race bets, thanks Papi -

changed it to $40 ex 72, $10 ex 27 whatever lol

I added to Race 11 another $30 to win on the #2 bringing it to $50 win
and since I actually was following the #1 some adds
$10 ex 12
$2 tri 12/12/all
$1 sup 12/12/all

[Papillon]

that horse Oblteration-who destroyed the winner of race 1 today-must be a monster