Post Position Resolution suggested to USTA

[caddy]

Among the 10 or so ideas that the Dist. 1 board reviewed last w/e is a suggestion to allow horses that draw outside to draw inside in their next race from a random draw for post 1 - 5.  Conversely, horses w/ an inside post will draw outside in their next race from a random draw for posts 6 - 10.  About time there's a procedure in place instead of constantly penalizing horses by using the lo-tech / no-tech algorithm program of the USTA.  It's certain that horses on the outside are dramatically disadvantaged.  If there's a genuine basis to work toward fairness for all of the horses, well - why do they even need to debate it?  This logic is so overdue that it really oughta be set to motion tomorrow !

[Winners Win]

Then people will complain they always draw the outside of what is possible in both draws. 

[Equus Caballus]

truth of the matter is

if you cant take the variance of post positions,
then you shouldnt be in the horse business

in the long run
it doesnt matter

[Calhoun]

truth of the matter is

if you cant take the variance of post positions,
then you shouldnt be in the horse business

in the long run
it doesnt matter

Exactly!

Bravissimo!

[Equus Caballus]

The problem with your logic is you're assuming the draw is honest.

oh well in that case 

i thought the thread was referring to post positions strictly

[Equus Caballus]

what bugs me the most is when elim winners pick posts

if elim races are made easy on the best horses or 2 horses in the division most of the time
why should we punish the under dogs and make it a higher chance they need more luck in the final by drawing a shitty post?

most of the time you will be the underdog anyways so the majority should be for getting rid of this rule/privilege
just my opinion

[Calhoun]

what bugs me the most is when elim winners pick posts

if elim races are made easy on the best horses or 2 horses in the division most of the time
why should we punish the under dogs and make it a higher chance they need more luck in the final by drawing a shitty post?

most of the time you will be the underdog anyways so the majority should be for getting rid of this rule/privilege
just my opinion

The only thing sillier than people complaining about Elim races being unbettable is that people in power listen to the complaints and make ridiculous rules in response.

Nobody remembers or cares who wins a 25k elim the week before a 500k final.

Those are trivia questions.

[Franky]

doesn't make logical sense.

draw the race.
or

assign each position by fastest time from previous race. fastest time get assigned the outside. slowest get the rail. and so forth.

[Winners Win]

doesn't make logical sense.

draw the race.
or

assign each position by fastest time from previous race. fastest time get assigned the outside. slowest get the rail. and so forth.

I agree.  Your solution would be better for bettors too.

[slimshady]

Franky   .....    Fastest time of a race isn't nearly as important as how a race developed and what kind of trip a horse got.     
There has to be an easy way to audit and ensure the random program being used for post positions isn't rigged.   Remove the concern about it being rigged and a truly random draw will balance out for any horse over time.
 If your goal is to balance the opportunity for an owner to make money over a shorter period of time, handing out the post position based on the horses post position in the previous race may make some sense, but what do you do with a horse dropping down after having the 9 hole in the higher class.  Do you still give them 1 - 5, even though they may already be the favourite in this lower class. 

[caddy]

Frankly   .....    Fastest time of a race isn't nearly as important as how a race developed and what kind of trip a horse got.     
There has to be an easy way to audit and ensure the random program being used for post positions isn't rigged.   Remove the concern about it being rigged and a truly random draw will balance out for any horse over time.
 If your goal is to balance the opportunity for an owner to make money over a shorter period of time, handing out the post position based on the horses post position in the previous race may make some sense, but what do you do with a horse dropping down after having the 9 hole in the higher class.  Do you still give them 1 - 5, even though they may already be the favourite in this lower class.

point is on point <>  if you're only on a fast turn-over, then it is likely and possible that a specific horse may draw outside for 4 - 6 races, then move along to a different owner and draw inside for a spell.    I, personally, have calculated on a full year sample size; and, it does not necessarily even out  ... so, that is an incorrect basis.  What is certain is that the outside post positions score poorer than inside.  That's an issue and instead of the typical, lazy avoidance - the problem should be addressed.  In a sophisticated technological age, why is this sport still operating like 1959 when there are methods to set a culture of fairness

[slimshady]

Caddy  ...   With your data from a year, what was the final % 1 - 5  vs  6 - 10 ?

[Franky]

Franky   .....    Fastest time of a race isn't nearly as important as how a race developed and what kind of trip a horse got.     
There has to be an easy way to audit and ensure the random program being used for post positions isn't rigged.   Remove the concern about it being rigged and a truly random draw will balance out for any horse over time.
 If your goal is to balance the opportunity for an owner to make money over a shorter period of time, handing out the post position based on the horses post position in the previous race may make some sense, but what do you do with a horse dropping down after having the 9 hole in the higher class.  Do you still give them 1 - 5, even though they may already be the favourite in this lower class.

listen. if you read my post, i said it wasnt logical. but you could have draw (as it is currently). or go by fastest time.  fuck all your handcapping bullshit. final time is final time. the rest of it is excuses. bad drive. bad trip. gimme a fuckin break.

[slimshady]

Franky   ....  relax.   I'm a terrible handicapper, but if you talk to real ones, I think they would say it isn't the most important criteria.  Hell, if it was we would all be retired with a home on the beach and a servant named Calhoun.  Sorry if i hurt your feelings. 

[wiggles44]

How about post positions assigned based on earnings last 5 starts.

they fix races now based on earnings last 5 starts
how bad do you think it'll be if it's also based on post?