morning lines

[Equus Caballus]

how many of you would like to see the morning line go away?

When i handicap pick 4s i ignore them and set my own morning line

[LUCPARK]

U ARE A CHALK PLAYER

NATIONAL CHALK PLAYER DAY IS OCTOBER 27TH

[HornbyDuke]

I look at it them but don't rely on them for  much if any. At some tracks the line is shameful - one could argue intentionally misleading. Yonkers comes to mind.

It would be an interesting twist. I wouldn't mind. A bad favorite does pull some dead money to it at times though.

[Calhoun]

how many of you would like to see the morning line go away?

When i handicap pick 4s i ignore them and set my own morning line

Ok Coopie, i'll bite and share thoughts.

There is handicapping and there is betting.  They are not synonymous,  

The ML is useless for handicapping.  100% useless.

The ML is just shy of 100% useless for wagering.  The exceptions are the first and last legs of p-4's/p-5's. They're both fairly intuitive, yet nuanced.

In Leg 1, it's fair to assume more $ runs thru the ML favorite than deserved, making others slight overlays and the ML fav an underlay in the multi. That may or may not impact your wagering decision but personally  I will adjust slightly the %'s of the wager that runs  through the fav/non-fav in the leg or will increase my % of total overall wager in the leg if I'm not using the ML chalk.

The last leg is more important to me because the universe of will pays to the ML favorite are underlays, more so than Leg 1 for the obvious reason. Personally, I like to push my $$ around when I can to have more of the wager go through legs where I dislike the most likely favorite and  include the last leg ML chalk in that consideration as well.

The last leg is far more important because the only reason to bet horizontals is to create significant value in the last leg by being live to overlaid will pays vs the last leg tote board .

[Fatboy]

THAT GUY MUSTA MADE A FORTUNE AT THE WINDOWS WITH THAT ANGLE

[Equus Caballus]

Ok Coopie, i'll bite and share thoughts.

There is handicapping and there is betting.  They are not synonymous,  

The ML is useless for handicapping.  100% useless.

The ML is just shy of 100% useless for wagering.  The exceptions are the first and last legs of p-4's/p-5's. They're both fairly intuitive, yet nuanced.

In Leg 1, it's fair to assume more $ runs thru the ML favorite than deserved, making others slight overlays and the ML fav an underlay in the multi. That may or may not impact your wagering decision but personally  I will adjust slightly the %'s of the wager that runs  through the fav/non-fav in the leg or will increase my % of total overall wager in the leg if I'm not using the ML chalk.

The last leg is more important to me because the universe of will pays to the ML favorite are underlays, more so than Leg 1 for the obvious reason. Personally, I like to push my $$ around when I can to have more of the wager go through legs where I dislike the most likely favorite and  include the last leg ML chalk in that consideration as well.

The last leg is far more important because the only reason to bet horizontals is to create significant value in the last leg by being live to overlaid will pays vs the last leg tote board .

I always go deeper in the last legs of the pick 4s  and 5s...

I think people are more inclined to pick bombs in leg 1 to stay alive than in middle legs
For example the amateur races at the meadowlands

[COTTONWOOD FARM]

You guys are grandstand goofs.  Smart people know that it is the 3rd leg of a pic4 where the ml favorite is no good. I have cashed many a race wager using such strategy.  The racing secretaries set them up that way, and have for decades

[HornbyDuke]

Ok Coopie, i'll bite and share thoughts.

There is handicapping and there is betting.  They are not synonymous,  

The ML is useless for handicapping.  100% useless.

The ML is just shy of 100% useless for wagering.  The exceptions are the first and last legs of p-4's/p-5's. They're both fairly intuitive, yet nuanced.

In Leg 1, it's fair to assume more $ runs thru the ML favorite than deserved, making others slight overlays and the ML fav an underlay in the multi. That may or may not impact your wagering decision but personally  I will adjust slightly the %'s of the wager that runs  through the fav/non-fav in the leg or will increase my % of total overall wager in the leg if I'm not using the ML chalk.

The last leg is more important to me because the universe of will pays to the ML favorite are underlays, more so than Leg 1 for the obvious reason. Personally, I like to push my $$ around when I can to have more of the wager go through legs where I dislike the most likely favorite and  include the last leg ML chalk in that consideration as well.

The last leg is far more important because the only reason to bet horizontals is to create significant value in the last leg by being live to overlaid will pays vs the last leg tote board .

This is sound analysis.  Most tied into the ml fav in the last leg so value is diminished.

I'd also point out that any p4 starting with a prohibitive favorite (under even money) one might as well skip unless tossing the chalk.

The first leg value is zero. P3 of the next three reaces is a better play if you like the chalk beginning a p4. A late p4 at mohawk last week paid less than the P3 starting in the 2nd leg.

[HornbyDuke]

I have a question related. Are p4 more formful on stakes nights. My thinking has always been there is much less chance of an unusual outcome when more purse $ is involved. With this in mind I've come to expect the unexpected on nights like a Tuesday in canada in at least one or two races.

[PIGLAND]

what are the morning lines for?

[LUCPARK]

what are the morning lines for?

i luved morning lines,,got me thru the rest of the day

good shit with no CUT

[PIGLAND]

i luved morning lines,,got me thru the rest of the day

good shit with no CUT

my bag