Lexington

[augustaandy]

Monday is Day 1. HRU had everyone saying how great the sale would be today. Guess the breeders didn't see inflation or the stock market.

No way this is a record sale and should be down from last year average-wise.

[Equus Caballus]

Monday is Day 1. HRU had everyone saying how great the sale would be today. Guess the breeders didn't see inflation or the stock market.

No way this is a record sale and should be down from last year average-wise.

You make a good point, however does the elasticity of demand on racehorses, especially yearlings, stay true to other asset classes? I would wager, no.

With the market down 20% YTD , even if the average was to fall this year, I’m sure the USTA, Harnesslink, HRU, and others will find ways to spin it!

[augustaandy]

From Tom Grossman of Blue Chip Farms in HRU today:



"No one is less rich than they were 15 months ago. Despite everything you read, most people with disposable income have never been richer in this country, which is a whole weird concept… I think the horse economy has quietly diversified itself. Our reliance on our top 10 buyers is much lower, in my mind, than it ever has been. The next group of 40, 50, 60, 70 people that can and will sign $100,000 for standardbred and $250,000 for thoroughbred is much deeper than it ever has been"




The stock market this year is down about 30% and many people are less rich including myself and almost all of the people I know. Inflation is out of control, including the bills to race horses. If you take asway the top 10 buyers horses at the auctions would be cheaper, possibly by lots as there usually are 2 bidders pushing up a horse. I believe the middle market and lower market will go far cheaper this year, we'll see. 

Tomorrow is the really high end and the full sibling to Tall Dark Stranger should sell really well.

Of course there will be buyers looking at the next edition out of Mission Brief, but so far she hasn't thrown anything nearly worth their price tags;

https://www.lexingtonselected.com/pdf/2022/Mission%20Brief.pdf

Good luck and best wishes to all who buy. Much like prior sales, many big purchases can be duds;

1 million for Damien

1.1 million for Maverick

Those were pretty poor at 2 and 3 years old. Where are they now?

Are their pictures on milk carton boxes in your fridge?   



 

[Brown jug]

there will be some very nice well bred horses available at moderate prices after day 1

[horses first]

Well, many will have stake money to spend and if the 1% out there continue to make their real-life money while their investments take
a beating they will still spend but maybe buy a few less horses or bring in more partners? The problem isn't this sale or the next or the last in Harrisburg. If inflation doesn't come down fast or sticks around at a high number through next year the Fed has made it clear higher rates for longer and that is not good for any economy. 2023 will be the real shit show and if anyone follows Dow Theory in a bear market we haven't even gotten to phase 3 and that is the capitulation phase.

What we have seen and will continue to see is less patrons spending money at the casino with less fungible dollars to spend and
that will take tolls on sire stake programs.

[COUNSELOR]

I AM VERY ACTIVE IN THE MARKETS AND PERSONALLY FEEL THAT MOST HAVE LOST THIS PAST 12 MONTHS IN THE MARKET.   MANY HAVE SO MUCH THT IT DOES NOT MATTER BUT EVEN THE RICH LIKES TO STOP THE BLEEDING.   FURTHER, THE COST TO TRAIN HAS RISEN AND THE BILLS ARE TREMENDOUS TO BUY AND STAKE A COLT.   

I WOULD SAY THAT THE FIRST DAY WILL BE DOWN BUT NOT A DISASTER BUT THE FOLLOWING DAYS WILL GET WORSE AND THE PRICES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.   I DO NOT THINK THE PROCES WILL INDICATE HOW BAD THE MARKETS TRULY ARE ----FURTHER, RATES AND CREDIT LINES ARE TOO EXPENSIVE TO BORROW .  THEREFORE, I WOULD GUESS SALES OFF 12 TO 15% OFF THE LAST YEAR PRICES ON DAY ONE AND SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AS THE DAYS PASS.

TIME WILL TELL.

[horses first]

I think it will be interesting to watch on what the Swedes buy and spend. With the dollar moves they no longer enjoy an advantage to the American buyer. So do they get outbid more often and have to stick more to a plan, if I like hip AB and have a 250k limit, not reach and pay 280k? Things like that are may keep lids on the good horses and not have bidding wars that go four or five extra bids.

[LUCPARK]

there will be some very nice well bred horses available at moderate prices after day 1

   

good money will e spent on first  days ,,

after that its downward the same players  always spend the most

few indy breds in here ,,none to my liking .

my investment are only in indy horses ,,but i might try 1 ohio and 1 new jerey this time around ...  see what hapopens

another 1 mill horse  sold at this sale,,

prob not ..jmho

[augustaandy]

I think it will be interesting to watch on what the Swedes buy and spend. With the dollar moves they no longer enjoy an advantage to the American buyer. So do they get outbid more often and have to stick more to a plan, if I like hip AB and have a 250k limit, not reach and pay 280k? Things like that are may keep lids on the good horses and not have bidding wars that go four or five extra bids.

the dollar being high screws foreign buyers huge

there are some nicer looking horses but in my opinion short on breeding tonight, I wouldn't be surprised to see some lighter prices in some spots

[augustaandy]

number 1, a Greenshoe, 62k

I don't believe the Greenshoe's are eligible to the 2 year old races at Jeff Gural's tracks

number 2, 75k

[goblue]

Absolutely ridiculous prices tonight, start to finish. And not just a few big sellers dragging the avg price up. Seven 500k+ horses. Unbelievable.

[horses first]

Looks like a 15% increase from last year. Pacing fillies lead the average in a big way just 12 sold with a hefty average of 237k. Looks like a big night with a 188k average on 122 hips and just about 23mln.

[horses first]

23mln spent would you guess Burke Racing Stable only accounted for 3 at 315k.

[augustaandy]

insane prices, either they're all going to be huge stakes winners or people are going to have massive losses

remember when Bonanza sold for a bonanza, how little did he earn?

[Homer Report]

insane prices, either they're all going to be huge stakes winners or people are going to have massive losses

remember when Bonanza sold for a bonanza, how little did he earn?

SO WHAT? IT AINT YO MONEY, IS T?

WHY DO YOU NICKLE CLAIMERS THINK YOU TELL THE STEAKS OWNERS HOW THEY SHOULD SPEND THEIR $$$$$$$$$