Author Topic: Post 1 seven times in a row??  (Read 4700 times)

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Easy Irv

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Post 1 seven times in a row??
« on: January 26, 2019, 04:29:03 PM »
The #1 horse at Freehold in the 12th race today has now drawn the #1 post 7 times in a row!!! How is that possible?

Fatboy

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Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2019, 04:38:48 PM »
The #1 horse at Freehold in the 12th race today has now drawn the #1 post 7 times in a row!!! How is that possible?

EASIER TO SET ONE UP IF THAT ONE STARTS THERE

Equus Caballus

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Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2019, 04:39:13 PM »
oh boy here we go again:

the condition clearl;y states
MAIDENS DRAW INSIDE

now there are 2 other maidens in the race
so maybe a 33.3% chance?

Fatboy

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Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2019, 05:01:20 PM »
oh boy here we go again:

the condition clearl;y states
MAIDENS DRAW INSIDE

now there are 2 other maidens in the race
so maybe a 33.3% chance?
tmbz1

Bacchus

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Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2019, 11:16:45 PM »
Oh OK but the odds of that happening seven times in a row, assuming there are three maidens in every race, is still .045%

Equus Caballus

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Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2019, 11:39:12 PM »
Oh OK but the odds of that happening seven times in a row, assuming there are three maidens in every race, is still .045%

yes correct 3 to the 7th power

Equus Caballus

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Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2019, 11:42:17 PM »
The odds are 33% every time they draw, its not a parlay!

yes but he is saying 7 times CONSEQUENTLY


Calhoun

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Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2019, 11:53:58 PM »

Equus Caballus

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Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
« Reply #8 on: January 27, 2019, 12:40:59 AM »

Bacchus

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Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2019, 11:10:21 AM »
You can't look at it that way, the odds of drawing the rail with the same entries on the next draw will be 33%. You can say the odds of him drawing the rail in the next 7 races might be that low though!

The gripe was that he drew the rail 7 times in a row - not that he drew the rail in this race as that would not be a quirk or Suspicious - as That happens at once in every draw - so the .045% probability was correct. 

bond

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Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
« Reply #10 on: January 27, 2019, 11:27:26 AM »
The gripe was that he drew the rail 7 times in a row - not that he drew the rail in this race as that would not be a quirk or Suspicious - as That happens at once in every draw - so the .045% probability was correct.
Was Joe Faraldo involved?  ngc3

 

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