The rail is a tricky post for him because he needs to be aggressive leaving but not to the extent of trying to park the field which is a sure way to lose. With alot of speed on the outside, one or two of those horses will probably be parked the mile. If he can sit 2nd or 3rd and is able to shake loose, I think he has a good shot of winning, even though I don't think he's the best horse in the race. As far as his price, a few horses figure to be lower than him even with the rail.