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General Category => Thoroughbred Racing => Topic started by: dougie on July 20, 2025, 10:04:44 PM
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It's a small 5 horse field going in next weeks Jim Dandy with Sovereignty the big-time chalk. Here's the field.....
Baeza............ ..Berrios
Sandman.........J . Ortiz
Mo Plex............F ranco
Hill Road..........I. Ortiz, Jr.
Sovereignty...... Alvarado
It's a pretty good field. I think Mo Plex is the speed here with Baeza sitting close off that front runner.
Mo Plex is good, but I think he a notch or two below the favorite. Sandman will be getting blinkers and i'm
not sure how that will go. And then there's Hill Prince who was 4th in the Belmont. Many will see this as a "prep" for Sovereignty's Travers bid. But who know's until they run this race. I'm rooting for the favorite.
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Just need the first 2 finishers, they have tris and sups lol!
Unlike the Florida Derby where Sovereignty had the 10 hole and made the big move it was too late. 5 hole, 124lbs now some relief, bigger, stronger faster, fresh and went right to training 20 days after last race - 147 4/5 the winning predicted time - a monster of win - and enough of one to keep Journalism away from the SPA.
Weather 1 week out too early but for Sovereignty, no matter he wins either way.
Mo Plex won in the easiest type of ways, easiest, tapped twice on the left to gear up and pushed to quicken with ease. That was from the 10 hole. Again the 10 hole on a 2 turn track mile and an 1/8th.
Being we saw the absolutely balls to the walls, Blinkers won't help Sandman he didn't need them before and he ran past horses and just needed to be straightened out, Baeza at 120 lbs will be 2nd in betting but no not a SPA horse his June 2 wo there was crap and showed this ain't Cali baby, Hill Road urged for big win at the PP, came off the pace no, hoping for 3rd as he might be 5th place in odds.
53 Don't need to think any further unless track condition changes and where Mo Plex has no wet races, maybe a wo at sometime.
53 ex
53A tri
53AA sup
Predicted going off odds:
Sovereignty 1/9
Baeza 9/2
Sandman 8-1
Mo Plex 14-1
Hill Road 20-1
Good night and good luck!
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that seems like a pretty accurate final odds
the horses who finished behind Mo Plex have come back and run solid races-he might draw some action
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that seems like a pretty accurate final odds
the horses who finished behind Mo Plex have come back and run solid races-he might draw some action
That I didn't know about those that ran back, good info that's been flying well with logic historically.
Thanks Papi!
If they're all running, it's fast, I'm going $1900 on the JD! ;D
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Let's do fucking an abridged highlighted race call. ;D
They're all in....and they're off in the 61st running of the Jim Dandy Stakes.
Like a shot out of cannon Baeza leaves the gate.
Baeza to the 1/2 in 45 4/5 seconds, Sovereignty is tracking him in second 4 lengths off this hot pace.
3/4's in 110 flat, it's a blistering pace set by Baeza. And - here - comes - Sovereignty, he inhales Baeza and he starts to pull away going around the far turn, Baeza is all out to hold second and here come the others.
Sovereignty to the mile in 134 2/5 in front by 12, with an 1/8th of a mile to go it's a race for the minor spoils. Sandman takes 2nd, Mo Plex in 3rd, Junior Alvarado looks back and he's all alone easing up Sovereignty to the wire, overtaking Sandman is Mo Plex in 2nd. Sovereignty wins by 10 , and it'll be a photo for 3rd between Sandman and Hill Road. Baeza finishing 5th and already headed back to Cali!
Sovereignty in 147 4/5! ;D
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Is the race Saturday or Sunday?
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Is the race Saturday or Sunday?
Saturday
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Let's do fucking an abridged highlighted race call. ;D
They're all in....and they're off in the 61st running of the Jim Dandy Stakes.
Like a shot out of cannon Baeza leaves the gate.
Baeza to the 1/2 in 45 4/5 seconds, Sovereignty is tracking him in second 4 lengths off this hot pace.
3/4's in 110 flat, it's a blistering pace set by Baeza. And - here - comes - Sovereignty, he inhales Baeza and he starts to pull away going around the far turn, Baeza is all out to hold second and here come the others.
Sovereignty to the mile in 134 2/5 in front by 12, with an 1/8th of a mile to go it's a race for the minor spoils. Sandman takes 2nd, Mo Plex in 3rd, Junior Alvarado looks back and he's all alone easing up Sovereignty to the wire, overtaking Sandman is Mo Plex in 2nd. Sovereignty wins by 10 , and it'll be a photo for 3rd between Sandman and Hill Road. Baeza finishing 5th and already headed back to Cali!
Sovereignty in 147 4/5! ;D
Expecting a 45 4/5 half in a 5-horse field is asking alot, and why would Sovereignty, a proven closer even want to change his running style and be that close to a fast pace.
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Expecting a 45 4/5 half in a 5-horse field is asking alot, and why would Sovereignty, a proven closer even want to track a hot pace?
Before Baeza's last 2 races in the east coast on wet tracks was the SA Derby, if fast like then, rail, low weight, back to 1 1/8 he'll be on the muscle.
Florida Derby was a million years ago, he's a different horse, for Sovereignty then though he had the 10 hole, more time and he wins it.
It's all about position and opportunity, and this race indicates my race call strategy. You don't agree, hey it's excellent you put it out there. Takes balls to make predictions publicly.
Sandman and Hill Road are closers, Mo Plex I think has to pace differently with the upgrade to this company so he goes back a bit. Sovereignty is not a closer, last race proved that, he's a versatile monster....Believ e it or not, but prepare yourself to see it! ;D
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My main point was I don't feel the fractions will be that quick in a 5-horse field. As a horseplayer, in a small field I don't like my horse that close if there's a fast pace because most likely the front runner will come back to you. I rarely comment about racing strategy because you're always going to have people who disagree which is okay, remember they're just opinions. I'll be at Saratoga for the 1st time ever from August 5-9.
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Maxx Bucknell.....you will love it! A truly great experience.
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There are 4 of us going, one of them is a big bettor on NYRA, and they're comping him a suite at Homewood Suites in Saratoga Springs.
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My main point was I don't feel the fractions will be that quick in a 5-horse field. As a horseplayer, in a small field I don't like my horse that close if there's a fast pace because most likely the front runner will come back to you. I rarely comment about racing strategy because you're always going to have people who disagree which is okay, remember they're just opinions. I'll be at Saratoga for the 1st time ever from August 5-9.
For these going longer routes, more weight now less, 1 1/8 is not as a much the challenge as the SPA track is anymore.
Berrios back on Baeza, look at the pps again on him, just for giggles.
We'll stick with our instincts on this one.
Have a great time, you wrap up with a couple of big stakes on Saturday the 9th - Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G2T), Sword Dancer (G1T) and you'll have the Arlington Millions race and that card at Colonial Downs on the simulcast! ;D
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Unless you like someone else, it's probably better just to watch the race.
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Unless you like someone else, it's probably better just to watch the race.
No scratches, it's fast I'm committing $1900, $1700 like this and the savers ($200) I'll post later.
$500 exacta 53
$200 tri 53a
$100 sup 53aa
Good luck!
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I'm much more of a harness fan, but am going because I was invited and have never been there before.
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I'm much more of a harness fan, but am going because I was invited and have never been there before.
Hambo the week before, boy the next couple of weeks you'll be busy studying and then a t-bred SPA vacay, sounds awesome!
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Trifectas and supers in a 5-horse field with a 1-9 shot, I don't know about that. If you like 5-3, why not just cold punch the exacta? Tracks shouldn't even have a superfecta in a 5-horse field.
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Trifectas and supers in a 5-horse field with a 1-9 shot, I don't know about that. If you like 5-3, why not just cold punch the exacta? Tracks shouldn't even have a superfecta in a 5-horse field.
The 10th race available wagers on JD:
Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 10 & 11 Pick 3 ($1) (10-12)
You make a valid point, unfortunately in T-bred exotics usually you see better than the historical logical payoffs that you see in harness for these type proportional situations.
Hundreds of thousands, millions in stupid money.
Let's see it come in first lol, and then we'll see.
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Hypothetically, say 5-3 pays $7 for $2, the tri pays $14 for $2, and the super $20 for $2. How would you make out with your scenario if it came in compared to just cold punching the exacta for $1000?
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The 10th race available wagers on JD:
Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 10 & 11 Pick 3 ($1) (10-12)
You make a valid point, unfortunately in T-bred exotics usually you see better than the historical logical payoffs that you see in harness for these type proportional situations.
Hundreds of thousands, millions in stupid money.
Let's see it come in first lol, and then we'll see.
Obviously the Kentucky Derby has the most stupid money with a 20-horse field, but in a 5 horse field it's limited.
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I'll go another $600 without Baeza.
This:
$200 tri 5/3/24
$100 sup 5/3/24/24
Total $2500 (Inc. $200 nutty savers to be released soon. ngc3)
Thanks Maxx! ;D
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I'll go another $600 without Baeza.
This:
$200 tri 5/3/24
$100 sup 5/3/24/24
Total $2500 (Inc. $200 nutty savers to be released soon. ngc3)
Thanks Maxx! ;D
I'm not trying to talk you into anything. The reason I don't like your superfecta bet is because there are only 6 possible combinations with 5-3 so no matter who finishes 3rd or 4th it won't pay anything, just my opinion.
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You didn't talk me into it, I was looking at some past results, small field, prohibitive fav on top, and your math is correct. I appreciate you mentioning it, regardless of the outcome.
2 combos, cost / result avg. This works! ;D
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I'm not that big of a bettor anymore because it always seemed like when I made a big bet a horse who shows nothing wakes up from the dead and runs the race of his life, then reverts back to being an also ran again. I would be sick to my stomach if I lost $2500 on a race.
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No scratches, it's fast I'm committing $1900, $1700 like this and the savers ($200) I'll post later.
$500 exacta 53
$200 tri 53a
$100 sup 53aa
Good luck!
strictly as a bettor-i would just play the $1700 and do a cold exacta 5-3 if that's what you like
the takeout goes up for trifectas and supers also
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When simulcasting first started a long time ago the programs used to have the takeouts for alot of the tracks. These days most tracks don't want you to know what the takeout is except when it's a lower rate on a Pick 4 or Pick 5.
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strictly as a bettor-i would just play the $1700 and do a cold exacta 5-3 if that's what you like
the takeout goes up for trifectas and supers also
I'm curios if I nailed the odds, as that should dictate too.
Sups with 6 way, 2 way, tris with 3 way 2 way I think is safe as it avgs 4 way on sups and 2.5 ways on tri. A break even on a min bet sup would be .40 & a break even on a tri would be 1.25.
I'm gonna let it roll this time because of the curse of changing lol, I think you Maxx make perfect sense though.
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Thank you. The reason why I say just do the cold punch exacta for say $1000 is because if 5-3 doesn't come in you'll lose less money
Ya haven't seen my $200 super insurance saver bets LOL!
Anyway let's see what the exacta probable payoff is.
It's a high risk investment, it's fun, it can't hurt more than losing $6k on a kyd.
If I lose, I'll figure it out and regroup.
One bet opposed, the 2-3k I bet a week.
Usually I've been doing ok, breaking, and losing a couple hundred, and the rebates evened it all out.
Last 2 weeks was a 2500 hit and that's with hitting all but the super in the Haskell pretty good. Had some nice scores earlier on in the KYD this year, and their future pools, it's all good.
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Even though I think the cold punch 5-3 exacta, say for $1000 is the way to go. Let's say the exacta is worth $7 for $2, if you also play tri's 5/3/1-2-4 you would need it to pay $21 to match having $6 more on the exacta and I think the chances of that happening are slim at best.
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Even though I think the cold punch 5-3 exacta, say for $1000 is the way to go. Let's say the exacta is worth $7 for $2, if you also play tri's 5/3/1-2-4 you would need it to pay $21 to match having $6 more on the exacta and I think the chances of that happening are slim at best.
5/3 $1 exacta is going to pay $6. I think that or more.
5/1 is going to be bet into oblivion, not eve $2 for a buck. w/ Sandman $3.5.
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My numbers are just hypothetical, but if you think it's going to be worth that much I would definitely stick with exactas. Even as the second lowest exacta with only 4 possible combinations, I'm still seeing under $10 for a $2 dollar exacta. Whatever it's worth I hope you hit it
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My numbers are just hypothetical, but if you think it's going to be worth that much I would definitely stick with exactas. Even as the second lowest exacta with only 4 possible combinations, I'm still seeing under $10 for a $2 dollar exacta. Whatever it's worth I hope you hit it
You couldn't strategize more if we owned the horses and were real serious gamblers and I'm just at the very bottom of being a vip.
We did a race call, closing odds...I was right on target with Journalism and Gosger 2/6 on a fast track, go back to that thread. $1 ex $5.90, bigger field there but Mo Plex will be 4th choice in betting.
Rispoli is getting a whip violation, just out now.
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We have overanalyzed the race to death, which usually isn't a good thing and have stated our cases. We disagree on a few things which is okay, because right or wrong we're each entitled to our opinion. I just downloaded the PP's on Equibase to get a better feel for the race, but most likely will still just be a spectator.
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We have overanalyzed the race to death, which usually isn't a good thing and have stated our cases. We disagree on a few things which is okay, because right or wrong we're each entitled to our opinion. I just downloaded the PP's on Equibase to get a better feel for the race, but most likely will still just be a spectator.
Take a look at the Chantilly race payoffs and the Mohawk thread from last night.
The 25 was easy could of been nothing but and was, I reached too far with 2 horses that could of been tossed, the 1 for being a crap in that company, the 6 for a huge race as shipping back. Now the exacta alone gave me a 50% profit but that payoff was shit, the tri and the sup were unreal payouts in that 6 horse field.
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I didn't see the race and you can't compare one race to another, but the tri and super were both good prices. Until you see the actual exacta probable's, it's all speculation on our part what it's going to pay if it comes in. I stand by my prior comment about not playing superfectas in the race, but it's your money. As a bettor, I don't like keying or singling 1-5 or 1-9 shots in anything because in most cases you're limiting your payoff. When it comes to Pick 3's, Pick 4's or Pick 5's, if there's a 1-9 shot in the first leg unless I think I can beat him I'll pass. We just have different philosophies on how we like to bet which is normal.
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I didn't see the race and you can't compare one race to another, but the tri and super were both good prices. Until you see the actual exacta probable's, it's all speculation on our part what it's going to pay if it comes in. I stand by my prior comment about not playing superfectas in the race, but it's your money. As a bettor, I don't like keying or singling 1-5 or 1-9 shots in anything because in most cases you're limiting your payoff. When it comes to Pick 3's, Pick 4's or Pick 5's, if there's a 1-9 shot in the first leg unless I think I can beat him I'll pass. We just have different philosophies on how we like to bet which is normal.
If the exacta probable is $8 for $1 on a 53, wow, that is hard not want to go all the money on that, I get it.
But there are strange betting patterns and unfortunately no probables given on tris and sups, but we've both been right and wrong based on history.
Let it ride lol! ;D
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Let's do fucking an abridged highlighted race call. ;D
They're all in....and they're off in the 61st running of the Jim Dandy Stakes.
Like a shot out of cannon Baeza leaves the gate.
Baeza to the 1/2 in 45 4/5 seconds, Sovereignty is tracking him in second 4 lengths off this hot pace.
3/4's in 110 flat, it's a blistering pace set by Baeza. And - here - comes - Sovereignty, he inhales Baeza and he starts to pull away going around the far turn, Baeza is all out to hold second and here come the others.
Sovereignty to the mile in 134 2/5 in front by 12, with an 1/8th of a mile to go it's a race for the minor spoils. Sandman takes 2nd, Mo Plex in 3rd, Junior Alvarado looks back and he's all alone easing up Sovereignty to the wire, overtaking Sandman is Mo Plex in 2nd. Sovereignty wins by 10 , and it'll be a photo for 3rd between Sandman and Hill Road. Baeza finishing 5th and already headed back to Cali!
Sovereignty in 147 4/5! ;D
With Mo Plex having the fastest TF early pace figures, he projects to be on the lead though I would not put it past Berrios to gun Baeza from the rail. If I were Berrios, I would set the pace as there is really no one, except Mo Plex to challenge early.
I don't see Sovereignty at 1-9, more like 2-5 with Baeza a clear second choice at 4-1.
The cut back to a mile and an eighth raises a few questions. Whereas, this is a prep for Sovereignty's Travers conquest, I can't help but recall the conservative handling in the Florida Derby when Sovereignty was second to Tappan Street. You can argue that Sovereignty is a much better horse today and I would not disagree.
The thought of seeing Baeza on the lead intrigues me as his second to Journalism in the SA Derby where he was closer to the lead, and quite frankly, his best effort to date, makes him a legitimate contender. The cutback to 9F will certainly benefit him.
As for Mo Plex, he will need to get much faster to defeat Baeza. Hill Road and Sandman are tosses,
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What the fuck is a Baeza? ngc3
A reminder, who the mother fucker in charge of the 3 yo universe!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6P8usX-dNg
Now your going to see the best currently racing dirt horse on the planet start to form, see ya Saturday at the SPA! ;D
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NO show wagering
probably still over $100k on Sovreignty in the place pool
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NO show wagering
probably still over $100k on Sovreignty in the place pool
Definitely over, I'd say close to $1m or over that.
Fake ass 3 Strategic Focus $270,388 $106,878 $74,749
That's today and that sucker ass bitch finished 3rd. Traver's Day, btw some rain on Friday, about 1/3 of an inch, Saturday looks glorious! ;D
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Definitely over, I'd say close to $1m or over that.
Fake ass 3 Strategic Focus $270,388 $106,878 $74,749
That's today and that sucker ass bitch finished 3rd. Traver's Day, btw some rain on Friday, about 1/3 of an inch, Saturday looks glorious! ;D
they wont bet that heavy in the place pool
my prediction for the 5-3 exacta will pay between $9-10 for a $2 investment-and I do feel Moplex is the lone speed and will hold on for 2nd-but I wont be betting the race
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they wont bet that heavy in the place pool
my prediction for the 5-3 exacta will pay between $9-10 for a $2 investment-and I do feel Moplex is the lone speed and will hold on for 2nd-but I wont be betting the race
I got the over on a million in Sovereignty's place pool and you go the under, should we place a personal prop wager on it?
How about one of us has to change our screen name for one active whole day to - Sovereigntyplop? ;D
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I got the over on a million in Sovereignty's place pool and you go the under, should we place a personal prop wager on it?
How about one of us has to change our screen name for one active whole day to - Sovereigntyplop? ;D
sure sounds good--
I will make it easier for you-make it $500k over/under and I will change my screen name for one week
if I win--you just change your name for 1 day
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sure sounds good--
I will make it easier for you-make it $500k over/under and I will change my screen name for one week
if I win--you just change your name for 1 day
Let's do $750k and 1 week for the loser, right down the middle 500k / 1mil fair on both?
I'm yes and and taking the over on $750K that gets bet on PLACE on Sovereignty!
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Let's do $750k and 1 week for the loser, right down the middle 500k / 1mil fair on both?
I'm yes and and taking the over on $750K that gets bet on PLACE on Sovereignty!
ok sounds good tmbz1
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ok sounds good tmbz1
[/quote 11.chrz]