26' Kentucky Derby - Recap

[Trigger]

It was mentioned on the NBC telecast. With such a huge handle it is incredible to think of the amount that must have been bet for the odds to move that drastically.

@$250,000.

[Calhoun]

did anyone notice the last flash drop on the Japan horse Elvis ho i think that's the name 12-1 t0 5 that's a lot of Yen!

12/1 gate
5/1 wire

Last Click cycle $950,000 bet total

Last Click cycle $400,000 bet on winner.

About 45% of the last Click cycle was bet on the winner.

In an 11 horse field.

Plus whatever happened in the ex, TRI, etc...

[Calhoun]

Using DRF Formulator, in the time it takes any of us to click on a line, call up and look at a replay on a race line, the CAW computers have done the same thing 1,000 times.  Every race line for every horse on the card.

[Calhoun]

I won't say Crude Velocity is the new Flightline but if just once he doesn't break slow, we will find out.

[Calhoun]

Ocelli -$12k yearling buy- had the lead 110 yards from the wire and came within 1 length of winning the Derby as a maiden

[Trigger]

Flightline is banging the top earning babes, should be real interesting to see his progeny.

T O Elvis carrying 123 had a better race than Crude Velocity carrying 118, even with the shorter.  Last furlong in under 12, and had a ton left.

[Jctoronto]

Cherie Devaux, the only female trainer who has won a Kentucky Derby, is sister of Jim Deveaux..yes that Jim Deveaux

[Calhoun]

https://x.com/Cappin_Commie/status/2050991023212339557

Here's 60 yo Mike Smith  (#8 So Happy) - wiping out the 7 horses inside him in the first 5 seconds of the race.

[Hambletonian46]

did anyone notice the last flash drop on the Japan horse Elvis ho i think that's the name 12-1 t0 5 that's a lot of Yen!

I thought he was a interesting outsider and neary keeled over when i saw what he went off at. In my younger days I would have caught that real time and made some $$. It takes a shit ton of cash to drop a horse from 12-1 to 5-1 on Derby Day. And they keyed on certain exactas and daily doubles. Big, big score. There was a similar drop in the last race on the winner who was double digits most of the betting and went off at 6-1.

My lesson learned is next year I will spend as much time watching the odds board as reeding the PPs. Most races if you were dead on the board you were dead period.  Except for the Derby. Winner was 8th best coming in by my way of reckoning but was iive...but I tell you what besides as part of a part wheeled trifecta I could have bet thousands and would not have had the maiden hit the board.

The comments in this thread have been spot on there are several horses who were impressive and may be live in the Preakness...but most will not make it to the gate for one reason or another. Final time was weak considering the hot pace, and I would not be surprised if two pieces of the Preakness trifecta are from horses that did not run in the Derby.

[Brown jug]

very valid calhoun
perhaps 60 is a little old to be trying to control a thoroughbred
dont care how good a shape you are in ,reflexes go and strength declines
that was dangerous given they still have a real hub rail and the other jocks really had to grab up on their horses

[Kirby's Ace]

Will the derby winner enter in the Preakness?

I say no...

[JT]

I thought he was a interesting outsider and neary keeled over when i saw what he went off at. In my younger days I would have caught that real time and made some $$. It takes a shit ton of cash to drop a horse from 12-1 to 5-1 on Derby Day. And they keyed on certain exactas and daily doubles. Big, big score. There was a similar drop in the last race on the winner who was double digits most of the betting and went off at 6-1.

My lesson learned is next year I will spend as much time watching the odds board as reeding the PPs. Most races if you were dead on the board you were dead period.  Except for the Derby. Winner was 8th best coming in by my way of reckoning but was iive...but I tell you what besides as part of a part wheeled trifecta I could have bet thousands and would not have had the maiden hit the board.

The comments in this thread have been spot on there are several horses who were impressive and may be live in the Preakness...but most will not make it to the gate for one reason or another. Final time was weak considering the hot pace, and I would not be surprised if two pieces of the Preakness trifecta are from horses that did not run in the Derby.

Nice post Hambo. The lesson I learned is that it's a jockeys race. Bitter Truth mentioned it earlier in the week. And then you look at the jockeys that finished in the  top 4. Sometimes we overanalize a horses form and past performances, when in reality, sometimes just going back to the basics is the right thing to do. Same for harness racing.. I would never of had the AE in my exotics as well... but it was Gafflione I believe  that finished 3rd

[JT]

Will the derby winner enter in the Preakness?

I say no...

I would say yes.. but will not win... might not even finish in the top 3.

[Kirby's Ace]

Since its at Laurel. What's the distance?

[Trigger]

Since its at Laurel. What's the distance?

Pimlico, karen.