Gural cuts off CAWs at 2 MTP

[Papillon]

In other worlds you have no proof.

in other words....you are ignorant

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2951427

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/tag/elite-turf-club/

https://paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/view-from-the-eighth-pole-were-all-suckers-on-this-pari-mutuel-bus

https://x.com/SwiftHitter/status/1886511169612980462

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/The_good_the_bad_the_future_of_computer_betting_on_races_123

https://www.ft.com/content/402955aa-21fa-42d5-b1d7-f79e7f19a617

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/277723/balance-between-caw-retail-market-sought-in-california

https://x.com/SwiftHitter/status/1830990841634070891

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=175587

https://racingthinktank.com/blog/crw-impact-display-gotham-stakes

https://pastthewire.com/jackpot-bets-just-for-the-elite/

https://share.snipd.com/chapter/8204f2f9-879b-4eb7-b013-da8e1241e0ac

https://www.drf.com/news/case-fuels-debate-offshore-sites


i have more if you can handle it

[Locked in with pace]

Cutting off the CAW to 2 minutes before the post may not happen as soon as other changes are made. If cutting them to 2 minutes results is a huge handle drop, how can a track that is losing money now afford to lose far more? It should be very interesting when the 2-minute cut of goes into effect, and what the handle drop will be. No one truly knows what the CAW handle is except track management.. Restricting the cut off to only the win pool should minimize the effect, but there surely will be some abnormal exacta, trifecta, and other exotic payoffs,

[Papillon]

Cutting off the CAW to 2 minutes before the post may not happen as soon as other changes are made. If cutting them to 2 minutes results is a huge handle drop, how can a track that is losing money now afford to lose far more? It should be very interesting when the 2-minute cut of goes into effect, and what the handle drop will be. No one truly knows what the CAW handle is except track management.. Restricting the cut off to only the win pool should minimize the effect, but there surely will be some abnormal exacta, trifecta, and other exotic payoffs,

they are being cut off at 2 MTP from the WPS pools only

they are still allowed to see every combination played in every exotic and every horizontal wager they have AND BET after the race starts

there would only be a massive handle loss if they were cut off FROM ALL THE POOLS before the race starts

understand now?

[Grandstand Handicapper]

Cutting off the CAW to 2 minutes before the post may not happen as soon as other changes are made. If cutting them to 2 minutes results is a huge handle drop, how can a track that is losing money now afford to lose far more? It should be very interesting when the 2-minute cut of goes into effect, and what the handle drop will be. No one truly knows what the CAW handle is except track management.. Restricting the cut off to only the win pool should minimize the effect, but there surely will be some abnormal exacta, trifecta, and other exotic payoffs,

You are absolutely right! Excellent points. That's the real issue. If you do 2 minute cut-off, win pool only, and you see a major handle drop, is that the end of the story. No. But, how long can you handle the major handle drop, and what else are you going to do, in order to get the hoped for outcome (which is that you what you wanted in the first place in doing the 2 minute cut-off)? Also, as you pointed out-----what impact does this have on the exotic pools? We all know there is a distortion factor, and we've seen it even before CAW's existed. What I find interesting is that if the technology the CAW's are using today does X, Y, and Z.....how long does it take before they can do A through Z!!! That is what worries me. The timeframe, the turnaround, on "information" and "knowledge" today is a fraction of what it was 25 years ago, 50, and 100 years ago.

[Kenny]

in other words....you are ignorant

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2951427

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/tag/elite-turf-club/

https://paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/view-from-the-eighth-pole-were-all-suckers-on-this-pari-mutuel-bus

https://x.com/SwiftHitter/status/1886511169612980462

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/The_good_the_bad_the_future_of_computer_betting_on_races_123

https://www.ft.com/content/402955aa-21fa-42d5-b1d7-f79e7f19a617

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/277723/balance-between-caw-retail-market-sought-in-california

https://x.com/SwiftHitter/status/1830990841634070891

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=175587

https://racingthinktank.com/blog/crw-impact-display-gotham-stakes

https://pastthewire.com/jackpot-bets-just-for-the-elite/

https://share.snipd.com/chapter/8204f2f9-879b-4eb7-b013-da8e1241e0ac

https://www.drf.com/news/case-fuels-debate-offshore-sites


i have more if you can handle it

Where is the PROOF people are betting after the start of the race?

[pocketrocketwinner]

Gural adopted this from NYRA who implemented the 2 minute win pool cut off some time ago so there is a point of reference.

The win pool is likely to take a hit. The CAW loses their edge. They are able to analyze the final win pool prior to making their win bets. Their algos tell them the exact amount to bet to win which enables them to know their final price and what makes sense for them to take as a win price. If they are cur out prior to all retail player money in the pool, they lose their edge which reduces their win handle.

What we saw at NYRA was then skewed exotic prices. Exactas and tris would come back short relative to win prices. Mouthpieces like Andy Serling spun it. He encouraged retail players to look at it as though they were getting underlayed win prices, so be happy about that. That wasn't exactly received well. Expect something similar from gural.

The long term issue is that caw handle overall increases every year as retail handle decreases. The industry is concerned. At some point, this is not sustainable. Caws cant be totally elminated as handle would plummet. Slippery slope

[Grandstand Handicapper]

Gural adopted this from NYRA who implemented the 2 minute win pool cut off some time ago so there is a point of reference.

The win pool is likely to take a hit. The CAW loses their edge. They are able to analyze the final win pool prior to making their win bets. Their algos tell them the exact amount to bet to win which enables them to know their final price and what makes sense for them to take as a win price. If they are cur out prior to all retail player money in the pool, they lose their edge which reduces their win handle.

What we saw at NYRA was then skewed exotic prices. Exactas and tris would come back short relative to win prices. Mouthpieces like Andy Serling spun it. He encouraged retail players to look at it as though they were getting underlayed win prices, so be happy about that. That wasn't exactly received well. Expect something similar from gural.

The long term issue is that caw handle overall increases every year as retail handle decreases. The industry is concerned. At some point, this is not sustainable. Caws cant be totally elminated as handle would plummet. Slippery slope

How much of a hit did NYRA take? Anyone have any idea? Little Andy used to tell it like it is, until his paycheck started getting signed by NYRA. Don't get me wrong, I still think he tells it like it is, but only relative to the fact that he's a NYRA employee. It is a slippery slope, and I guess the thought provoking question is-----how long can you take the hit in the hopes you attract new dollars-----but will they even look at it that way? Short-sighted? Easy to be when you are losing money.

[pocketrocketwinner]

Where is the PROOF people are betting after the start of the race?

I have acclimated myself to the research. Several studies have been conducted by impartial experts spanning several years. Here's the deal. The caws have last call. They bet after all retail money is in the pool. They partner with the tracks to allow technology to send in a batch of bets in a split second of time that exists after the retail pools close and before the race starts.

If you're serious about gambling on horses and are open to track choices, the best way to go is pass on major signals and concentrate on smaller tracks

[Kenny]

I have acclimated myself to the research. Several studies have been conducted by impartial experts spanning several years. Here's the deal. The caws have last call. They bet after all retail money is in the pool. They partner with the tracks to allow technology to send in a batch of bets in a split second of time that exists after the retail pools close and before the race starts.

If you're serious about gambling on horses and are open to track choices, the best way to go is pass on major signals and concentrate on smaller tracks

What you are saying is the "virtual" betting windows is "open" for CAWs after it closes for everyone else.  That is fraud. They way this has to be proven is to show those bets going into the pool when it is "closed".  It is more likely those bets are going in a tiny fraction of a second BEFORE the betting closes.  that is not fraud, that is just technology and is happening constantly in the financial markets of the world.

[pocketrocketwinner]

I think the death blow was last Saturday in race 5.
Twin Fury was a decided win pool favorite all the way to when the gate sped off. On the first turn, all of a sudden hes 3/1 and the winner, Smooth Dream, first race off the layoff was absolutely hammered very very late to 3/5 for noel daley.
 Everyone watching knew the race was already over when those odds flashed on turn 1. Horrible optic

[pocketrocketwinner]

What you are saying is the "virtual" betting windows is "open" for CAWs after it closes for everyone else.  That is fraud. They way this has to be proven is to show those bets going into the pool when it is "closed".  It is more likely those bets are going in a tiny fraction of a second BEFORE the betting closes.  that is not fraud, that is just technology and is happening constantly in the financial markets of the world.

There are many tracks and many caw groups. My understanding is they are in fact betting last. They also place bets when horses enter the gate. I do think it's highly unethical and have no idea how someone decided it to be legal. The problem is that I as a human can not possibly get the same technology edge as the caws unless I have their bankroll. That is not fair in a parinutuel game

[Papillon]

What you are saying is the "virtual" betting windows is "open" for CAWs after it closes for everyone else.  That is fraud. They way this has to be proven is to show those bets going into the pool when it is "closed".  It is more likely those bets are going in a tiny fraction of a second BEFORE the betting closes.  that is not fraud, that is just technology and is happening constantly in the financial markets of the world.

Bingo

why is that difficult to grasp?

[seen2much]

The handle is way down. It could be this and/or less drag time.