THE STABLE @ CA

[Winners Win]

When is everyone going to understand that AM has NO interest in quality, only quantity. The more he has the more he gets to bill and the more he makes, its that simple.
Also, he said that Spent (a Swan For All colt) was worth $40,000 but he bought him for $11,000. Hey AM or any of his lackies, evidently no one else at the sale (of which 98% are smarter than AM) thought he was worth $12,000. He may be proven right next year but  given his track record in selecting yearlings I am betting not

No way he would have spent 40k on him.  Erv did take a piece of him so someone else thought he was worth 11. lol

[Winners Win]

Never said you did.  Was stating he really doesn't believe the value he states they have as he never pays close to what he says.

[Winners Win]

100 percent believe it is to drive up demand.

[horses first]

Buying yearlings your going to look at dozens even if your going to buy 1 or 2. If your buying 20 you may look at 100. Your going to put that list together once you watch video, for me having pedigree analysis sent off, then the trainer inspection. After the inspection you value everything from where the horse was placed in sale, where the horse was raised, and a mirror of other things. # of foals, age of mare, and so on. You will have your favorites which will be many others favorites and those will sell higher then your best high guess. If you truly think the horse doesn't have many flaws and pages look good odds on that horse is going home with someone else. If you like some individuals and they toe in or toe out you will place a discount. There are a lot of factors and yes whether AM puts a too high or too low of a price well eye of the beholder. However AM...these are his words for years he knows very little about pedigree and for sure very little on crosses. He does have some clients that make up for that however. He is more about the page, the black type, and as many know buying yearlings based off full brothers and full sisters is a recipe for disaster. Same with buying new sires that is a tough one if it's not the premier new studs. Would rather do the homework and find the right blood on a 1st foal and tract the bottom maternal side all the way to the foundation mare. There was a trotter I loved at the Jug sale traced back to Midnight who had thoroughbred parents and they traced back to 1790. Will follow, a good trainer bought the horse so will be interested on how the horse turns out. Not in love with the sire but that may not matter. Price was higher then the value I had. So that's why we put values on and whether AM is too high or too low it's in his observation probably more on the individual itself?

[Winners Win]

What was your price you set on your Lexington purchase? Was it your number 1 choice or the only one that fell below your number. 

This is where I really question am numbers. He gets way too many under his number and let's top picks go for a few bids more.

[coryd03]

What was your price you set on your Lexington purchase? Was it your number 1 choice or the only one that fell below your number. 

This is where I really question am numbers. He gets way too many under his number and let's top picks go for a few bids more.

buying yearlings simply because they fall into your budget is the biggest disaster purchase you can make. as stated above, you need to have a good size list with a top group. stick to that top group, and buy from it.

[horses first]

WW, I've been scaling out for a couple years. Had a couple broodmares die last year and sold off a couple others. I wasn't shopping at Lexington, did like a UP colt that went for 42k, and that was a shade higher then I thought. I would have past on him. While 815 I would have priced much higher on and went for 15k. Never did look at the horse itself based on pedigree so not sure what happened there and as Coryd03 mentions a possible disaster if I thought I was getting 50% value. I do like a filly trotter first foal at Hanover but going to pass. Have one home bred yearling that will get trained down and see how it goes. Trying to get the twelve years of racing blood out of my system lol.

[Winners Win]

Good luck with the homebred and hopefully won't be racing against me. Sorry for your loss of the mares. 

[horses first]

Thanks. You the same.

[cigar]

Horses first
Pedigree pages don’t tell you how fast they are only how fast their mom and dad and siblings are!
Confirmation tells you have a less likely chance of problems training down.
Here’s a clue never buy babies thinking they are stake material unless you are gonna spend big money to get the above two things, and those go for big $$$$$$.
Plenty of cheaper ones with toes pointing out and less expensive make more $$$$ as racehorses.
If you are buying babies it’s a numbers game buy more tickets and hope a few of the tickets have the winning numbers it’s the biggest gamble in racing.
There are plenty of horses that make good $$$$$ that were bought under 10k
over the years, they are just not stake material at 2 and 3. They are however good raceway horses that make a profit.
You can argue with me all you want but your wrong!!!!!!!!!
Big stables buy the best bred best looking babies in quantities because they don’t even know which ones are the golden ticket.
So people buy cheaper ones and get that golden ticket also, it’s called luck!!!!
If you want to play the baby game with the big boys you have to:
1. Spend and buy in quantities
2. Hope your luck is good and they get trained down the right way
Remember that horse foiled again? Well he made the most $$$$ and raced the longest, and I believe he wasn’t a stake horse at 2 or 3.
There are plenty of those out there.
So save your $$$$$ on the toilet paper you buy for pedigree
Give me a toed out knee knocker that has heart for 2500 instead I can put spreaders and knee boots on him!

[Swandre]

When is everyone going to understand that AM has NO interest in quality, only quantity. The more he has the more he gets to bill and the more he makes, its that simple.
Also, he said that Spent (a Swan For All colt) was worth $40,000 but he bought him for $11,000. Hey AM or any of his lackies, evidently no one else at the sale (of which 98% are smarter than AM) thought he was worth $12,000. He may be proven right next year but  given his track record in selecting yearlings I am betting not

Globetrotting - $21,000
Yes - $16,000
Oh So Pine - $13,000
Lawmaker - $20,000
My Jazz - $6500
White Tiger - $20,000

some of you complain it cost too much but some of you complain they don’t spend enough on yearlings, so which is it?

you economic experts are still sitting on your couches with your hand on your horn and he has another shedrow full of yearlings 😂

[horses first]

Swandre, being a north of the border homer of the stable you continue to make the case that AM for some reason can't pick out horses. You pick 6 horses, one a two yr old My Jazz, a 3 yr old Globetrotting, and 4 others that are 4 and 5. So 2019 Stable had 60 plus yearlings, 2018 I think it was over 70 could have been 72ish, and before that not sure. So lets assume 175 yearlings over the last 3 buying cycles and yes the freshmen class will have a chance at 3 if stake worthy to advance in earnings. You just gave a 3% example giving your money to AM to go sale to sale look at hundreds of horses. To come back with a large number saying that buying value or his approach, to say give me your money, and charge you 66 US or 88 CDN a day at a minimum. That at 3% shot at best you can own one of those 6 type of horses? Which all those shares probably weren't available any way because the stable itself owns shares of Globetrotting, Lawmaker, and White Tiger. I think AM may fire you as his spokesman because your making the case way this thread exist. Poor horse buying while keeping 3 and 4 yr old horses that can't cover the basic coverage and while a large number are still nw 1, 2, or 3 racing at tracks that offer small purses. His client numbers have stalled in this 800 area for over 2 years and one has to wonder with all those horses that didn't sell last year that how many are really active? So yes another shedrow of broken dreams and high bills for newbie clients that question more and more why the horses don't perform.

[horses first]

Cigar as usual so wrong!!! Pedigree pages are a form of history and a good way to start the process of elimination...esp ecially for those who buy smaller samples of horses and not your theory of buying more and hope a few tickets hit. Why is that? Well number one sometimes the tickets you sign at a yearling sale like 10k, 15k or 20k will be the cheapest check you write over the longer haul. Not everyone can buy babies in bulk you idiot and to say buy 10 and hope 2 workout because that at best is the ratio. Your monthly bills will set you back ever before that lottery ticket may come in.

Pedigree page is a history guide to crosses and blood matching if you have a service. The approach of breeding the best to the best is a junk process that was old school. I have looked at many yearlings that had no affinity from mare to sire and those have always been a auto toss. If you can't get it right in the breeding shed it's not going to transfer to the track. Then you have your crosses and over time golden crosses. Reasons why decades ago many looked for Lindy Lane, Donerrail, American Winner to name a few on the broodmare side. These days Muscle Yankee, Conway Hall, Yankee Glide, and Angus Hall as broodmare sires. Muscle Hill now having enough mares out there will draw the same. One can use this as a base that gives the buyer on this aspect a better % at making it on the track. You come across sire and dams that don't cross well for whatever reason and the list can be long but the sample size is big enough to be a failure, its a why bother and a risk. Again a auto toss. Nobody is arguing the fact that cheaper horses can't make money? I have always put a price on trotters 25k or less can net you good results with making it in the states sire programs which offer enough money.

To your point people who have the most money... those are the ones looking to buy the next sire that gives them buying potential for years to come. That is the game they play and that's why there are 4 or more partners to a horse these days because they can afford to buy and spread into more horses. Your wrong again, as they do there work and analysis as they go to the farms 4 and 5 months before the sales a few times to look at the yearlings. You think the Takter group goes to a sale and doesn't do the work? Tony A visits farms many times a year before a sale. You couldn't be so wrong on that statement. Yes they are also buying on what they believe is a good individual, very few flaws, and a racy looking horse. That at times trumps pedigree or may play the more important role of $$$.

Heart...one of the few things you can't measure in a horse at the yearling sales. Buying those toed out or in at a sale one would make the determination if it's bad enough that they won't hit. Does the video show but that video is in a field in a casual trot. You don't know on those horse types when the horse ends up hitting if that horse has heart to fight through issues in a race. Your a claiming guy with older raceway horses at that by point the horse has battled through with equipment and a possible temperament that makes it different in a 8 yr old vs a 2 yr old just getting to the track trying to trot under 2 minutes. Those with the flaws may not make it at 2 or 3 and that is why you find horses like Foiled Again or other horses like him. They had to have reasons why they didn't make it as a younger horse?

As far as your toilet paper comment I will let that fly from a guy who trains a couple low lever claimers vs what I was able to buy at some success with also saying many more failures but that is the name of the game with babies. Do the homework one can do ok and much better then the 3% strike rate that the stable has over the last few years. Good day Gene.

[Brown jug]

lots of good view points and comments
clearly it depends who you are as to what you buy
if you are a owner/trainer and making a living from this game than  you buy inexpensive yearlings and hope to get lucky and get a real god one but mostly raceway overnight horses, also many of those good raceway horses come from the investors who bought the high priced yearlings and if they are just decent they get sold after their 3 yr old season
if you are an owner/investor you are buying much stronger pedigree for grand circuit horses and maybe a future stallion and certainly future broodmares
it is very evident come breeders crown time , you know who the owners and trainers will be for most of the horses
at the lexington recently some of the trot races there was not a horse that sold for under $100 k in them

there is something for everyone,

[LUCPARK]

or u can buy 3 or 4 babies and get extremely lucky

at times