Track Speed Variants

[bond]

Because I wasn’t clever enough to find recent track speed variants anywhere online, I computed them myself by creating a database of horses with consecutive races (fast tracks, no breaks, no layoffs, no interference) at two different tracks and tabulated their time differences.

FWIW these are the results after 5,362 such races :

1:54.0 Lex1
1:54.0 DuQ1
1:54.1 M1
1:54.2 Spr1
1:54.3 Haw1
1:55.1 OakGr5/8
1:55.2 Wbsb7/8
1:55.3 HoP7/8
1:55.3 Phl5/8
1:55.3 Mea5/8
1:55.3 PRc5/8
1:55.3 VD3/4
1:55.4 ScD5/8
1:55.4 CbRn5/8
1:56.0 MVR5/8
1:56.0 PcD5/8
1:56.0 Dtn5/8
1:56.1 Aces5/8
1:56.1 TgDn5/8
1:56.2 Dela
1:56.3 RcR5/8
1:56.3 DD5/8
1:57.2 YR
1:57.4 Nfld
1:57.4 Stga
1:58.1 Btva
1:58.1 Fhld
1:58.1 MR
1:58.2 BR
1:58.3 Har
1:58.3 OD
1:59.0 Bang
1:59.3 Cumb

Nice work!!

Did you account if the same driver was used for the same horse?
Also--the speed the starting car has at the start--is that the same at all tracks?
The track maintenance guy also is a factor--sometimes he uses a harrow on the track other times just the screen Ive noticed but the track is rated as "fast" but is it?
Post positions--was that also included?

[helpplease]

Because I wasn’t clever enough to find recent track speed variants anywhere online, I computed them myself by creating a database of horses with consecutive races (fast tracks, no breaks, no layoffs, no interference) at two different tracks and tabulated their time differences.

FWIW these are the results after 5,362 such races :

1:54.0 Lex1
1:54.0 DuQ1
1:54.1 M1
1:54.2 Spr1
1:54.3 Haw1
1:55.1 OakGr5/8
1:55.2 Wbsb7/8
1:55.3 HoP7/8
1:55.3 Phl5/8
1:55.3 Mea5/8
1:55.3 PRc5/8
1:55.3 VD3/4
1:55.4 ScD5/8
1:55.4 CbRn5/8
1:56.0 MVR5/8
1:56.0 PcD5/8
1:56.0 Dtn5/8
1:56.1 Aces5/8
1:56.1 TgDn5/8
1:56.2 Dela
1:56.3 RcR5/8
1:56.3 DD5/8
1:57.2 YR
1:57.4 Nfld
1:57.4 Stga
1:58.1 Btva
1:58.1 Fhld
1:58.1 MR
1:58.2 BR
1:58.3 Har
1:58.3 OD
1:59.0 Bang
1:59.3 Cumb

Nice work A Merliner.

[seen2much]

That is a lot of work to put in. Thanks for doing it.

[pocketrocketwinner]

The Potomac at the rosecroft went faster than the breeders crown , the dayton stake, the hoosier derby, the Canadian pacing derby

[gh2009]

There was also no action at all in the race because Ruthless Hanover looped the field at the start or else they probably go even faster. Dexter won the race by grabbing the pocket at the start. Not a bad time considering Rosecroft is one of the two slowest 5/8-mile tracks in the country according to track variant expert "A Merliner".

[Kenny]

Everything single thing you wrote is false.

The variants are computed using the time differentials of the SAME horse racing at two different tracks in CONSECUTIVE races, which eliminates track class bias.

Further, the variants account for the temperature differential of the two consecutive races (18.6 degrees/sec) which eliminates weather bias.

Rosecroft and Dover and not “extremely fast”. They are, instead, the slowest two 5/8s in the country.

No way Delaware is faster than Rosecroft.

[gh2009]

I never said Dover was faster than Rosecroft. I said Dover was one of the fastest 5/8-mile tracks around and Rosecroft is also extremely fast, even though the track variant expert calls them two of the slowest 5/8-mile tracks in the country.

[A Merliner]

No way Delaware is faster than Rosecroft.

That would be true except for the teeny-weeny little problem that all the data says Delaware is, in fact, faster.

[gh2009]

In my opinion, both tracks are very fast, and I'll leave it at that. Arguing which is faster doesn't really matter to me.

[pocketrocketwinner]

The data shows that Hawthorne is just a few ticks slower than Lexington, I think most people know that is ridiculous

[kantseeback]

There is one thing that makes those charts completely useless. JUICE.
Did the trainer juice the horse in one race and not the other?

[A Merliner]

The data shows that Hawthorne is just a few ticks slower than Lexington, I think most people know that is ridiculous

And how exactly might most people “know” such a thing?

Intuition? Feelings? Tea leaves? Ouija boards?

Or do they, instead, systematically accumulate and numerically evaluate the time differentials between Hawthorne and Lexington and every other track in the country?

I humbly suggest that essentially nobody, much less “most people”, have ever done the latter.

[Grandstand Handicapper]

I once heard Ross Croghan say, statistics don't lie, but statisticians do. LOL.

[Kenny]

I once heard Ross Croghan say, statistics don't lie, but statisticians do. LOL.

https://scontent-ams2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/241976938_4258720630849642_2305170255125111143_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=6akIgDLZefAQ7kNvgFzlKDp&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-ams2-1.xx&_nc_gid=AxrQg0tBO3IxMi_6fvCVtNN&oh=00_AYCm5OsVxq2PKIXynBpqT3lzT_Idh716DfA-PniBy9WKWQ&oe=67409C6A

[Kenny]

That would be true except for the teeny-weeny little problem that all the data says Delaware is, in fact, faster.

That is how we know the analysis is not always valid.