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been using AI for years in Betting, it's nothing new. Not going to make you rich....
A lot of interesting and intriguing comments here. Thanks for that. Real gamblers, professionals, need to bet into large pools. It's just a fact. They have to be able to bet without substantially impacting the odds. Period. They could not care less about CAW handle...UNTIL it impacts them. Name me one professional who is complaining about the CAW player(s). Show me one on record. You can say that the rebates paid, the mere existence of the CAW player(s) impacts me -- but I say it doesn't. One professional, one of the biggest bettors in the game told me off the record, that if it weren't for the Meadowlands and Woodbine/Mohawk "paying" for the CAW player(s) -- they would lower the takeout? Really? Lowering the takeout always eliminates the track's competition (offshore for example). He then told me that those same tracks, or any other major track that attracts my play could provide me with incentives, and not the CAW player(s). Chicken and egg. I don't see one track changing their business model to me or for me because of the CAW player. They were around a lot longer than most people knew about them.All that said, the CAW player(s) are not betting on horses. They are using objective science and algorithms, analyzing data, and playing math, numbers, formulas, whatever you want to call them. Me, I am handicapping races. I am picking and choosing the races I want to bet on. I handicap horses and the race. I watch them, look at them, gather information, and yes, I watch the odds, very, very closely. But I know the very few, select tracks I play, I know when they cut off the CAW player(s). Drag, delays, overlap reactions, whatever, all of it. That's valuable information to me. That impacts me. That information is perhaps priceless. Not to oversimplify, but I don't want to play a horse "strong" at 6-1, only to have him go off as the 2-1. CAW or late money aside, whether or not I would have bet the horse at 2-1 is not the question -- and I wouldn't answer that question anway, LOL -- but the odds change absolutely changes the structure of my bet, how I bet into the race, it changes my number(s) and perception, and quantification of "value" (yes, I quantify value). But every professional I know, and I know most of them, none of them are boycotting, changing their career, or anything of the like because of CAW. If the $2 bettor is, so be it. Good luck to you. If you tell me 50% of the handle at the Meadowlands is coming from CAW -- tell me the difference if it disappeared tomorrow. Other than the handle being 50% lower, what impact is that going to have on the players who make up the remaining 50%?
So what is the difference in CAW and going to a casino and playing poker against a regular that gets rebates and comps? 5% ROI is good but still leaves money out there for a good handicapper
The recent article mentioned player 17 has a positive 5% ROI before rebates, correct? Quite simply, all factors aside, if you are playing CAW 17's track, would you prefer they are in the pools or not in the pools?
Not as much money for the good Handicapper as their would be without the 5% caw in the long term.That caw's existence reduces a 1% roi player to about a -1% player. Long term. Approximately
Did you quantify that, or is that just a guess? Even a guess, what variables did you include? Thanks.
It is a guess. Its impossible to quantify exactly but I firmly believe 5% roi player in the pools to the magnitude of player 17 will reduce an equally as sharp individual player about a point or 2. I have no idea how good the cCAW is at the meadowlands. They seem to bet vastly different from the others
the monster rebate player #17 receives must also be factored in.The regular player has absolute no chance over the long haul.
