HORSEPLOP.COM
General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: Grandstand Handicapper on October 13, 2024, 02:18:49 PM
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No surprise.
https://standardbredcanada.ca/news/10-11-24/karl-stand-stud-2025.html
Interesting that Bowden finalized the deal Sunday morning before the Futurity.....synd ication details and stud fee likely to be released between the Breeders Crown and Harrisburg yearling sale. Also of note, two other breeders are/were owners----Crawford and Bender.
Next is the BC.....so.....doe s he enter? Race?
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Been very disappointed in his last few miles. Not sure if he was sick etc but he doesn't seem to be what I hoped he would be.
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I expect him to run in the Breeders Crown, will be interested to see if eliminations are needed.
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Didn't someone here say he will race in the BC and be on Lasix for the first time???
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Adam made one of the worst deals he could have ever made by buying this horse. He won't be as bad as Tall Dark Stranger but he will be a close 2nd.
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Adam made one of the worst deals he could have ever made by buying this horse. He won't be as bad as Tall Dark Stranger but he will be a close 2nd.
Agree
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Adam made one of the worst deals he could have ever made by buying this horse. He won't be as bad as Tall Dark Stranger but he will be a close 2nd.
That depends on what he paid to buy in. It’s not like he doesn’t see what we all see.
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Adam made one of the worst deals he could have ever made by buying this horse. He won't be as bad as Tall Dark Stranger but he will be a close 2nd.
Just add it to the pile
Lather up gotta be the tippy top
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It willbe interesting to see how mant breeders will be willing to buck a top producing mare to him.
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It willbe interesting to see how mant breeders will be willing to buck a top producing mare to him.
Ill go ahead and say none
Who would choose him over
Walner
Muscle hill
Chapter seven
International moni
Tactical landing even
Or tactical approach was a much bigger specimen
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It willbe interesting to see how mant breeders will be willing to buck a top producing mare to him.
All of the breeders who are lucky enough to buy into the syndicate will be sending their mares. More money than brains types.
The Harris clan etc
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You people need to get off the crack. To mention International Money in the same post as Karl is an insult to the Horseplop Nation’sintelligence. Then Tactical Approach that made less than 40k as a two year old and lost half his start’s lifetime.
Karl has won 18 of his 22 and been off the board once which was his last which he scoped sick with blood. His first year foals will be the highest average price of any trotting stallion that year. First crop foals are a homerun for breeders and that’s why he will get all the top trotting mares in 2025.
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Will he get Jiggy Jog?
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Watch how many shares are sold----to commercial breeders!!! And if you know them, ask them how much they paid for their share.
Any commercial breeder who has a mare that can cross to a premier stallion----is not going to breed to Karl. Commercial breeders maximize ROI. Do they want something to offer everyone, every type of buyer? Not for their premier mares. They want to sell well-into-six-figure yearlings! All things being equal, where would you invest your money----a premier stallion or Karl? He's a son of Tactical Landing, who is by Huscle Hill, out of a Varenne mare! You have to go back four generations on the sire side (from TL) to get to----Speedy Somolli, Super Bowl, Baltic Speed, and Speedy Crown. Go look at the mare side----Avalicious is by RC Royalty, out of a Speed In Action mare.
So forget about commercial breeders being backed into a corner. Forget about crosses. Commercial breeders have got plenty of options. Why, because if you want a premier stallion, and you want/need an outcross----you have Walner. If you own one mare----who can go almost anywhere----and you can't afford Walner, sure if Karl is 10k or 15k, you might consider it. But if you have an excellent mare, chances are you've sold some good yearlings and you can afford Walner. Walner can breed a massive community of mares----and he can breed Muscle Hill mares!
I think they overplayed their hand here. It only goes two ways. Either they set the stud fee where it belongs, 10k to 15k max, and they have a good second-tier stallion. They won't make a lot of money, but if he turns out to be a decent stallion, over time, they will make money. The problem is farms don't think "over time" ---- they think one to three years. That's their life-cycle so their entire business model is built around that.
Or, and I think this is more likely, they set the stud fee "artificially" high, say 20k, maybe 25k (which would be a very dangerous move), and they "create"----a very politically correct word for "fabricate"----the market. People look at average(s) and median(s), and yearling buyers are more likely to pay six digits for a yearling where the stud fee is 25k as opposed to 10k. But, the gamble is that commercial breeders won't breed mares to a 25k stallion who is really not a 25k stallion. Hence, the quandary. Will commercial breeders buy into a fabricated stallion/market? In today's day and age?
The X factor here is the BC. If Karl steps up and wins impressively, changes hearts and minds from what they've seen since the Hambo----well, that changes everything as of today. If he gets lucky and the race falls into his lap, he trips out and gets lucky and the rest of the field falls apart, etc.----it's still a BC victory. If he doesn't win, nothing changes.
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He absolutely gets Jiggy Jog she’s a Walner and with Muscle Hill out of juice he’s the only place to go.
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he might have to do it the hardway like chapter seven did
he will benefit from crawford being involved and even takter in terms of getting some decent mares
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“ Commercial Breeders” what are you talking about? Who else is going to put up 125k to buy a share in Karl? Between Harrisburg and Lexington there will be 70+Karl’s to buy his first crop.
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If yimmy couldnt get him any better than he was in Lex they are in trouble, especially if there are eliminations where he would have to come back in a week.
What price will a share cost and how many breedings a share ?? I just can’t see breeders rushing in to pay $100,000 or even $50,000 a share for him. They may have to go with 2 breedings a share ?? You will never hear how many shares were sold. Present owners will be eating some of them ??
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I love how they scoped sick and bled. I thought this was supposed to be the greatest yimmy? You mean to tell me you don't check his temp every day or pull blood in the middle of the week to check his white count? The horse is perfect all week then gets beats and "scoped sick and bled" Excuses Excuses Excuses. Great horses don't have excuses! Typical Yimmy sales job.
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Funny thing, before they scope sick after he loses, Nancy always says the horse trained great during the week. You're right, she is a big excuse maker when her horses don't win.
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I don't know if he was scoped during the week, or if they pulled blood, or what. I do know he trained well---I would say bordering on very well---before his last start. That's why with the race he threw in, I think he is what we saw. Maybe a different horse shows up for the BC. I wouldn't bet on it, but who knows.
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She had a built-in excuse prior to his last race at Red Mile with the second tier, however the horse ended up with a 100% perfect trip and came up empty, so she couldn't use it.
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Karl has won 18 of his 22 and been off the board once
Yup. Great horse. I guess his 2 year old year made him out to be the next super horse and he was vulnerable a couple times this year but still has had a great year. I did read on here Highland Kismet was supposed to jerk his bridle in Lexington. never happened.
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The problem with saying he had a great year is, people tend to go by what he's done recently, not earlier in the year.
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Genius man has spoken.....you are so well versed on absolutely everything
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The problem with saying he had a great year is, people tend to go by what he's done recently, not earlier in the year.
Agreed. More importantly, I think people----the important ones----are going to go by what they see on the track. To them it's not about propaganda on a fact sheet. It's about what he did and how he did it on the track.
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He absolutely gets Jiggy Jog she’s a Walner and with Muscle Hill out of juice he’s the only place to go.
Guess I would just take her straight to Tactical Landing vs an unproven. Not sure I would be super excited about it but if Muscle Hill isn’t a real option things get dicey quick
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Go look up the stud fees if that's what works for you. This is about where the list gets cut off.
Commercial breeders who sell yearlings are not looking at a fact sheet, a stat sheet, or propaganda. They are looking at what the horse is on the track, what he did and how he did it. I think Karl was visually a dominant 2yo. I said he wouldn't do the same at 3, at least not throughout the year. He regressed a bit, but the others caught up to him. I take nothing away from what he's accomplished as a 2yo, but as a 3yo, no offense, he looks like just a horse. He got lucky winning the Hambo. He got beat by just a horse after that. In the KY Futurity he showed what he is relative to the rest of the field/crop. Take the Hambo away and you're looking at what? Yes, I know, the teletimer. People who stress that do so because one, they have to, it's all they know, and two, because they have to deflect away from who and what the horse is on the track.
Sire Name:
CHAPTER SEVEN
WALNER
MUSCLE HILL
MUSCLE MASS
FATHER PATRICK
SWAN FOR ALL
TACTICAL LANDING
CANTAB HALL
GREENSHOE
BAR HOPPING
UNCLE PETER
INTERNATIONAL MONI
If this colt miraculously turns around 180 and wins the BC and dominates, then it changes his stud career. Doesn't change my opinion though. Body of work. Not one race.
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Do you think if he wins the Breeders Crown, Takter will have the guts to challenge the older horses in the TVG/FanDuel final?
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Karl entered in BC on lasix. Looks like someone has been right all along?
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Do you think if he wins the Breeders Crown, Takter will have the guts to challenge the older horses in the TVG/FanDuel final?
Do you get an auto invite to it if you do?
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He absolutely gets Jiggy Jog she’s a Walner and with Muscle Hill out of juice he’s the only place to go.
I would be floored if she goes to Karl. FLOORED. But stranger things have happened.
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Do you think if he wins the Breeders Crown, Takter will have the guts to challenge the older horses in the TVG/FanDuel final?
Hell no - I said long ago he races in BC and done. Mysterious injury so he gets retired and able to breed instead of racing at 4.
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May not show up for final if not really good in the elmin.
How long if ever as a 3 year old has he raced back in a week ?
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May not show up for final if not really good in the elmin.
How long if ever as a 3 year old has he raced back in a week ?
Hambo, right?
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Right. And has not been good since
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Right. And has not been good since
Yeah..I am not of the opinion Lasix is going to suddenly right the ship, but I guess we will see.
I am truly disappointed, by the way. I was very much on board with and looking forward to him having a huge year this year that just didn't materialize.
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You do get an automatic invite to the TVG/Fan Duel final if you win the Breeders Crown.
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Timmy is driving Kismet,that should be worth a couple of lengths.
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How or why does he now go on Lasix? Did he bleed or can a Vet. just declare him in need of Lasix?
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He absolutely gets Jiggy Jog she’s a Walner and with Muscle Hill out of juice he’s the only place to go.
She will be bred to Muscle Hill!
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How or why does he now go on Lasix? Did he bleed or can a Vet. just declare him in need of Lasix?
Pretty sure if you are scoped directly after or have a vet state you bled you can race directly on lasix without qualifying on it first
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He absolutely gets Jiggy Jog she’s a Walner and with Muscle Hill out of juice he’s the only place to go.
Jiggy Jog being bred to Karl? I'd take that action. I'd give odds too. LOL.
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She will be bred to Muscle Hill!
Good call. Where else would they go? LOL. MH appears nowhere in her pedigree.
https://www.allbreedpedigree.com/jiggy+jog
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With MH being at about 50% conception rate let’s see where she actually ends up being in foal to. I also didn’t take into consideration how much Ake and Takter hate each which I should have.
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I think he is a great horse... 11.wp
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One of the greatest of all time.....at least around these parts. LOL.
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One of the greatest of all time.....at least around these parts. LOL.
That person has disappeared
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FYI - HOT MESS HANOVER is in foal to WALNER
How much will she bring??
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My guess is Tactical Landing based on the Hunterton Connection...or Chapter Seven
For who? Jiggy Jog?
It's already been announced the plan for her is Muscle Hill. Chapter Seven would be rather incestuous.
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muscle hill is obvious first choice for jiggy jog, they can start early and hope she catches , if not it will be his son tactical landing
they ae not going to risk her first breeding on karl, an unknown stallion
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Trotting side could use a SBSW type outcross to come along - right now 90% of studs are either Chapter Seven or Muscle Hill. The Andover Hall line has puttered out and will basically be gone after Swan For All. Creatine was infertile and I’m guessing Nuncio is too. Donato sired mostly filly speed and I love seeing him on the broodmare side of a page but no studs of note.
Maybe Ready For Moni will over perform or someone like Captain Corey will come out of left field.
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Trotting side could use a SBSW type outcross to come along - right now 90% of studs are either Chapter Seven or Muscle Hill. The Andover Hall line has puttered out and will basically be gone after Swan For All. Creatine was infertile and I’m guessing Nuncio is too. Donato sired mostly filly speed and I love seeing him on the broodmare side of a page but no studs of note.
Maybe Ready For Moni will over perform or someone like Captain Corey will come out of left field.
Yea, usually (hopefully) someone does. That whole Direct Scooter (Matts Scooter) line was dead until Mach Three came along and produced SBSW....and look where that is at now.
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That person has disappeared
Yes. Mike hasn’t posted in 3+ weeks! Mike took plenty of ‘razzing’/abuse because of his stance on this! Seriously now, is he ok?
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Seriously, did anyone really believe they were going to breed Jiggy Jog S to Karl? Seriously?
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I wouldn't be rushing to breed to Karl. Breeding/pedigree are not my strong points.
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Seriously, did anyone really believe they were going to breed Jiggy Jog S to Karl? Seriously?
I'll admit I can't always read sarcasm on this forum, but I believe some did.
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I wouldn't be rushing to breed to Karl. Breeding/pedigree are not my strong points.
They're somewhat my strong points (or at least something I take a strong interest in ;D) and I wouldn't either, but not really because of him, exactly. He's plenty fast. I wouldn't say he's shown toughness and I wouldn't say he's exuded soundness. I don't mind the pedigree so much. My biggest concern is his stud fee is going to be inflated for what he actually represents: a lightly-raced horse who showed great speed and dominated at 2, but not a model of consistency.
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Karl is not a lightly raced horse. A lightly raced horse is Walner who actually demands the highest stud fee in the business. Then you say he’s not consistent 22 starts 18 wins 2 seconds and 1 third is a model of consistency.
Are you thinking of a different horse?
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Karl is not a lightly raced horse. A lightly raced horse is Walner who actually demands the highest stud fee in the business. Then you say he’s not consistent 22 starts 18 wins 2 seconds and 1 third is a model of consistency.
Are you thinking of a different horse?
No, I am not. He will finish his career with not a lot of starts. His stats do contradict my assertion he isn't consistent but the ones he has lost don't scream gallant in defeat. And yes, you are correct Walner had way less. I do think Walner exuded way more talent than this horse. And you missed my point that he will stand for more than he is initially worth, IMO, and that is my main reason for not being super excited about breeding any mare to him.
You and MC appear to be from the same school of thought.
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The BC is going to tell the entire story. For him to be considered a great colt, by people who truly have a qualified opinion, he's going to have to win and win decisively. Impressively. No, not the teletimer. It's not going to be how fast he does it, but how he does it. He's going to have to win and dominate in order to be considered a great colt. Not the way he won the Hambo. That victory did not make him a great colt. It didn't even make him # 1 in the class. He looked great to many at 2, but to me that's because he was so far ahead of the rest of the crop. He looked, visually, so dominant, people jump and say great, will be one of the GOAT, and so on. This year, the rest of the class caught up to him. Maybe he didn't get any better. Maybe he regressed relative to the rest of the crop.
Since the Hambo, getting beat by Dame Good Time in the KYSS final did not do his so called greatness any service. DGT tripped out and won the Zweig, and won the KYSS final, both at close to 20-1. Those two victories were worth $350,000 of his $400k earnings this year. To me, he is nothing more than a face in the crowd, a lucky one, but still just a face in the crowd. He's not a top colt. Karl is lucky he finished 2nd. So, Karl losing to him was simply not good. Karl's performance in the KY Futurity didn't look good either, but I'll buy the claim that he bled.
So, for me, as they said a long ago.....it all comes down.....to the Breeders Crown. LOL.
Karl turns around and wins big. He's restored himself, his reputation, and it would make him 3yotc of the year. I don't know if that would make him a great colt. I've just seen too much so-so, mediocrity, lucky, etc. Great to me is how you do it, easy, dominate, decisive, substantially better than the rest, the best by far, and doing that way. Great, OK, maybe to some. But again, not one of the GOAT. Not even in the same universe.
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Good horse ? Yes!, great Horse ? No! Already tarnished.
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we can debate how great karl is, but that has no impact on wat kind of sire he will be, one or two races wont change that, it might change peoples opinion of him or their desire to bred to him
he is what he is at this point when it comes to his ability as a sire
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Let’s look at some actual facts. Walner had TWO starts as a two year old and made 35k. Tactical Approach made FIVE starts as a two year old and made 36k. Tactical Landing made TWO starts as a two year old and made a total of $1500! Karl already has more starts than Muscle Hill had lifetime. Karl was a great two year old and very good three year old. Hasn’t been a trotter like him in awhile.He will and should demand a high fee.
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we can debate how great karl is, but that has no impact on wat kind of sire he will be, one or two races wont change that, it might change peoples opinion of him or their desire to bred to him
he is what he is at this point when it comes to his ability as a sire
I agree. Karl has been a great horse. 22 start, 18 wins, 2 seconds and a 3rd with $2.4 million and counting. Doesn't get much better than that. He'll breed a full book of good mares at $20k.....what happens after that is anyone's guess.
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I am going along with one of the greatest breeders of trotters, in my time, Alan J. Leavitt. 2 year old speed is the single most important factor to a sire. Karl displayed Outstanding and consistent speed, winning 9 out of 10 starts. Best was a win in 1:51.2 , and earned over $1 million.
That should check most boxes for a potential breeder.
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Let’s look at some actual facts. Walner had TWO starts as a two year old and made 35k. Tactical Approach made FIVE starts as a two year old and made 36k. Tactical Landing made TWO starts as a two year old and made a total of $1500! Karl already has more starts than Muscle Hill had lifetime. Karl was a great two year old and very good three year old. Hasn’t been a trotter like him in awhile.He will and should demand a high fee.
An opinion of one owner ,!!
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we can debate how great karl is, but that has no impact on wat kind of sire he will be, one or two races wont change that, it might change peoples opinion of him or their desire to bred to him
he is what he is at this point when it comes to his ability as a sire
100% right about that. It is not always the great on track that are great in the breeding shed. And vice versa.
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BUT !!!! What breeder with top broodmares will jump from Walner or Muscle
Hill to Karl??. Just maybe a couple of the share holders. Too many variables right now. He has to be dominate in both the eliminations and the finals. Lots riding on the next 2 weekends that will determine his share value, his stud fee and how many quality mares he gets. After that we have to wait 3 years.
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I am going along with one of the greatest breeders of trotters, in my time, Alan J. Leavitt. 2 year old speed is the single most important factor to a sire. Karl displayed Outstanding and consistent speed, winning 9 out of 10 starts. Best was a win in 1:51.2 , and earned over $1 million.
That should check most boxes for a potential breeder.
I have that in the back of my head too, and both Karl and TCI do check that box. I have a feeling that unless something dramatic changes, TCI is going to be significantly more affordable and for the breeder without an unlimited budget, might offer a better choice.
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Let’s look at some actual facts. Walner had TWO starts as a two year old and made 35k. Tactical Approach made FIVE starts as a two year old and made 36k. Tactical Landing made TWO starts as a two year old and made a total of $1500! Karl already has more starts than Muscle Hill had lifetime. Karl was a great two year old and very good three year old. Hasn’t been a trotter like him in awhile.He will and should demand a high fee.
Walner Had 8 starts as a 2yo and 2 as a 3yo and made $484,000 at 2 and 83,000 as a 3yo. Walner would destroy Karl. Toscano felt he could have gone 48 as a 3yo. It was a shame he got injured because he was a machine.
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I agree. Karl has been a great horse. 22 start, 18 wins, 2 seconds and a 3rd with $2.4 million and counting. Doesn't get much better than that. He'll breed a full book of good mares at $20k.....what happens after that is anyone's guess.
Will you be there for any of the action?
Seriously now, will it be commercially driven by the breeding operations swapping breedings with one other, or will the little guy get involved with a 15-20k stud fee? If all goes well, we will find out which group of participants are on board in the very near future!
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I have that in the back of my head too, and both Karl and TCI do check that box. I have a feeling that unless something dramatic changes, TCI is going to be significantly more affordable and for the breeder without an unlimited budget, might offer a better choice.
The little guy wants more affordable while the big guys want higher dollar stud fees to load their pockets! Again, time will tell all of us what will occur.