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General Category => Thoroughbred Racing => Topic started by: Trigger on July 23, 2025, 12:36:07 PM

Title: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Trigger on July 23, 2025, 12:36:07 PM
The SPA weather is beautiful and the track should remain Fast and Firm.

The card sucks, a stakes hurdle and a bunch of generic races.

I'm looking at the 7th a starter allowance, 7 furlong, $75k purse.  (1) is scratched and 1A is running. 

Going to study and report back, here are the early scratches, quite a few - Good Luck!:

1    #2    Zarak the Brave (FR)    2 CHEEK PIECE ON    
   #6    Historic Heart (IRE)    6 CHEEK PIECE AGAIN    
   #8    Kitten Around    8 CHEEK PIECE AGAIN    
 
2    #2    Patricia Ann    2 HOOD AGAIN    
 
3    #1    Good Skate    Scratched @ 10:05 AM    
   #7    Bad Larry    Scratched @ 10:05 AM    
 
4    #6    Conniving    Scratched @ 10:05 AM    
 
5    #1    Trade Secret    Scratched @ 10:05 AM    
 
6    #1    Unlimitedpotentia l    Scratched @ 10:06 AM    
   #8    Mutaawid    Scratched @ 10:06 AM    
   #9    Film Star    Scratched @ 10:06 AM    
   #1A    Costa Terra    Scratched @ 10:06 AM    
 
7    #1    Moonlit Weekend    Scratched @ 10:06 AM    
 
8    #1A    Golden Degree    Scratched @ 10:07 AM    
 
9    #10    Chris's Song    Scratched @ 10:07 AM    
   #11    Long Pour    Scratched @ 10:07 AM    
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: JT on July 23, 2025, 01:36:21 PM
Pick 5: 1,2,3,5,6/ All/ 2/ 3,4,5/ 2,3.. $75 beans
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Trigger on July 23, 2025, 01:36:41 PM
Race 7 (440 pm) -

1A - Rabbit if that today, not even counting on this one for anything but a 4th.

2 - Big speed figure last, KC jumps to the 8, maybe a 4th too.

3 - Contender for 2nd and 3rd although will be fav or co fav.

4 - Contender for 2nd and 3rd although will be fav or co fav.

5 - The Lailman's who claimed this one, have a very good owner / trainer win % but have tailed way off being in the winner circle, 4th is a strectch.

6 - Horse wins and doesn't hit the track for 50 days, a problem, now adding 1/2 furlong, don't see it, 4th a strecth.

7 - The projected winner, raced 13 days ago and has a history of racing back in 2 weeks or so, very tight, and speed figure going up by double digits.  Got to taste the SPA.  122 2/5 at AQU at this distance with only 1lb more 5 weeks ago.

8 - Rice picked this horse up from Baffert, has done nothing for her or him, turf to dirt switch 24% win and 52% itm for Rice. Dangerous bitch with the needle and raced with better, going to say 2nd or 3rd or 4th here.

Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Trigger on July 23, 2025, 01:37:35 PM
Pick 5: 1,2,3,5,6/ All/ 2/ 3,4,5/ 2,3.. $75 beans

GL JT, and nice job again with the Mohawk opening p5 yesterday!   ;D
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Trigger on July 23, 2025, 01:47:14 PM
SPA 7th race wagers:

WIN - Saratoga - R7 - $5
   
1st: 7
Bets (1) Amount: $5 Total: $5

Placed At: 07-23-2025 1:42 PM
EX - Saratoga - R7 - $12
   
1st: 7
   
2nd: 3, 4, 8
Bets (3) Amount: $4 Total: $12

Placed At: 07-23-2025 1:42 PM
TRI - Saratoga - R7 - $6
   
1st: 7
   
2nd: 3, 4, 8
   
3rd: 3, 4, 8
Bets (6) Amount: $1 Total: $6

Placed At: 07-23-2025 1:43 PM
SPR - Saratoga - R7 - $2.4
Superfecta Box    
: 3, 4, 7, 8
Bets (24) Amount: $0.10 Total: $2.40

Placed At: 07-23-2025 1:44 PM
SPR - Saratoga - R7 - $3
   
1st: 7
   
2nd: 3, 4, 8
   
3rd: 3, 4, 8
   
4th: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Bets (30) Amount: $0.10 Total: $3

Placed At: 07-23-2025 1:44 PM
SPR - Saratoga - R7 - $3
   
1st: 7
   
2nd: 3, 4, 8
   
3rd: 3, 4, 8
   
4th: 3, 4, 8
Bets (6) Amount: $0.50 Total: $3

Placed At: 07-23-2025 1:45 PM
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: JT on July 23, 2025, 02:03:10 PM
Good luck to you to.. I also hit the early pick 4 at Mountaineer yesterday for $229 on a $31 bet. On a little mini heater knock on wood.
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Trigger on July 23, 2025, 02:49:11 PM
Good luck to you to.. I also hit the early pick 4 at Mountaineer yesterday for $229 on a $31 bet. On a little mini heater knock on wood.

Bro, that's amazing.  Nothing I would attempt I do not follow WV, most racing.  Just A tracks and or typically their big stakes in harness and t-breds.

The issue I have with multi-leg wagers is I feel compelled to back up my selections with individual race bets, and smaller multi-leg, dds, p3s and it's a big $ commitment.

The handicapping is different, one seeking winners opposed to the other seeking out the placers for the same race exotics.

It's all good!  ;D
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: dougie on July 23, 2025, 02:56:59 PM
Betting #7 Remi's Moon in the 5th at the Spa. Trainer doesn't run much at the Spa, but he sharp at placing his limited stable. $20WIN $100Place on this one.
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: JT on July 23, 2025, 02:59:26 PM
Bro, that's amazing.  Nothing I would attempt I do not follow WV, most racing.  Just A tracks and or typically their big stakes in harness and t-breds.

The issue I have with multi-leg wagers is I feel compelled to back up my selections with individual race bets, and smaller multi-leg, dds, p3s and it's a big $ commitment.

The handicapping is different, one seeking winners opposed to the other seeking out the placers for the same race exotics.

It's all good!  ;D
I usually back up my pick 5's with small exactas, tri's and super's no dd or pick 3's.. I just pick 1 or 2 tracks a day and roll with it
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Trigger on July 23, 2025, 03:07:48 PM
I usually back up my pick 5's with small exactas, tri's and super's no dd or pick 3's.. I just pick 1 or 2 tracks a day and roll with it

Keep it up, 3 down at the SPA and great single in the 4th!   tmbz1
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: JT on July 23, 2025, 03:24:12 PM
Keep it up, 3 down at the SPA and great single in the 4th!   tmbz1
Thanks, that race was pretty easy looking at it.. I really wish 6 could of held on in race 3.. much higher potential payout
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: JT on July 23, 2025, 03:29:00 PM
Pick 5: 3,4,5/2,3/4/2,3,4,7/1,4,5,7,9.. $60 donuts
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: JT on July 23, 2025, 04:14:58 PM
I'll take a $235 profit from the early pick 5, it would have been a much better payout if 6 held on in race 3 and 3 held on in race 5.. but it's all good.. it paid for the 2nd pick 5 and then some.
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Trigger on July 23, 2025, 04:18:28 PM
I'll take a $235 profit from the early pick 5, it would have been a much better payout if 6 held on in race 3 and 3 held on in race 5.. but it's all good.. it paid for the 2nd pick 5 and then some.

BOOM! BOOM! BOOM!  tmbz1

Very well done and keep it up JT!
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: dougie on July 23, 2025, 04:39:58 PM
#6 Pam Pam in the 7th. Should be flying at the end. $10Win $40Place $50Show
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Trigger on July 23, 2025, 04:49:08 PM
Race 7 (440 pm) -

1A - Rabbit if that today, not even counting on this one for anything but a 4th.

2 - Big speed figure last, KC jumps to the 8, maybe a 4th too.

3 - Contender for 2nd and 3rd although will be fav or co fav.

4 - Contender for 2nd and 3rd although will be fav or co fav.

5 - The Lailman's who claimed this one, have a very good owner / trainer win % but have tailed way off being in the winner circle, 4th is a strectch.

6 - Horse wins and doesn't hit the track for 50 days, a problem, now adding 1/2 furlong, don't see it, 4th a strecth.

7 - The projected winner, raced 13 days ago and has a history of racing back in 2 weeks or so, very tight, and speed figure going up by double digits.  Got to taste the SPA.  122 2/5 at AQU at this distance with only 1lb more 5 weeks ago.

8 - Rice picked this horse up from Baffert, has done nothing for her or him, turf to dirt switch 24% win and 52% itm for Rice. Dangerous bitch with the needle and raced with better, going to say 2nd or 3rd or 4th here.

$30 into $160.

This race, and the 11th at Hoosiers I put almost $200 on.

We're starting to warm up fellas!   ;D
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: JT on July 23, 2025, 05:01:20 PM
$30 into $160.

This race, and the 11th at Hoosiers I put almost $200 on.

We're starting to warm up fellas!   ;D
Nice hit trigger.. he just held on to beat my 4 and knock me out of the late pick 5
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Trigger on July 23, 2025, 05:04:03 PM
Nice hit trigger.. he just held on to beat my 4 and knock me out of the late pick 5

Thanks JT!

I put these bets together and in way early today.

We see each others bets but we often times see different stuff when we're handicapping and decisions are often final.

We don't seem to worry what others say and think, or odds, feel it - bet it!

I hope if you back up those wagers they come in!
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: dougie on July 23, 2025, 05:16:15 PM
R8 #7 Midtown Lights. My usual bet!
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Trigger on July 23, 2025, 05:19:25 PM
Some serious cheating that 8th.

Dutrow, Irad and Prat.....zero effort.

2    The Big Calhouna    $134,997    $39,030    $75,716
2B    Everyoneloveslind a    $134,997    $39,030    $75,716
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Birdfantammy on July 24, 2025, 10:07:55 AM
Some serious cheating that 8th.

Dutrow, Irad and Prat.....zero effort.

2    The Big Calhouna    $134,997    $39,030    $75,716
2B    Everyoneloveslind a    $134,997    $39,030    $75,716

That was totally disgusting!  Clearly a jockey fixed race!  Big show pool and poof.....the usual crap in NY!

I still don't understand show betting. Seems crazy to risk thousands for pennies. 
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Trigger on July 24, 2025, 10:27:37 AM
That was totally disgusting!  Clearly a jockey fixed race!  Big show pool and poof.....the usual crap in NY!

I still don't understand show betting. Seems crazy to risk thousands for pennies.

 tmbz1

Bridge jumping is for the wealthy. Pick up 5 to 10% return.  If they are in for $50,000 to show x 30 races x 2.10 payout (5%) = 75,000 profit - $50,000 wrong on the 31st time they still made a $25,000 profit. 

Some tracks in some states are required to pay out $2.20 as the lowest return, even better for them.

For sure, the 3 of them (Irad, Dutrow and Prat), just look at the stretch effort.  They might of got a dose of something too.  Millions of dollars, not just wps, out of the sups too, taking them out of all exotics.  The stretch drive  ngc3, even the fight for 4th there was none.
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Birdfantammy on July 24, 2025, 11:09:49 AM
tmbz1

Bridge jumping is for the wealthy. Pick up 5 to 10% return.  If they are in for $50,000 to show x 30 races x 2.10 payout (5%) = 75,000 profit - $50,000 wrong on the 31st time they still made a $25,000 profit. 

Some tracks in some states are required to pay out $2.20 as the lowest return, even better for them.

For sure, the 3 of them (Irad, Dutrow and Prat), just look at the stretch effort.  They might of got a dose of something too.  Millions of dollars, not just wps, out of the sups too, taking them out of all exotics.  The stretch drive  ngc3, even the fight for 4th there was none.

Yep, literally nothing in the stretch.  They all watched the 1 run off and sat back there and stopped riding horses.  No effort...NONE!  I couldn't believe what I saw in that race.  Jockeys and trainers went together on a bet in that race.  No doubt in my mind. 
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Trigger on July 24, 2025, 11:23:51 AM
Yep, literally nothing in the stretch.  They all watched the 1 run off and sat back there and stopped riding horses.  No effort...NONE!  I couldn't believe what I saw in that race.  Jockeys and trainers went together on a bet in that race.  No doubt in my mind.

I had zero bet, just rooting for JT, Dougie and those that posted selections on the race so I'm an objective party, you too. 

A jockey and trainer wins a $1 mil purse.  About $30k each, plus training fees.  A lot of work, doesn't happen often sometimes never for some

These guys whack up $1mil on a race taking in $3-4mil, just another heavy fav this one a coupled entry, they take themself out and it leaves 7 horses from the 9, take out 1 more jockey / trainer partner say another heavily bet horse and you can just box the other 6 in race 8.

6x5 exacta (all x all) = for every $30 spent, paid $120.75 for $1 base exacta bet

6x5x4 tri (all x all x all) = for every $60 spent, paid $193.25 on $.50 base tri bet

6x5x4x3 sup (all x all x all x all) = For every $36 spent, paid $330.75 on $.10 base sup bet

The wps pools now mean nothing because you don't have to figure out who to bet and you swept through the exotics.
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: Papillon on July 24, 2025, 01:05:00 PM
betting on coupled entries is illogical--your price is getting slashed as opposed to them race as separate entries


"Oh look, there is two of them"   ngc3 attracts plenty of bettors--even some higher level players

both horses came up empty-it happens

Irad and Flavien are not holding back anything
Title: Re: SPA Wednesday, Day X, 7/23/25
Post by: JT on July 24, 2025, 01:06:17 PM
I try to avoid coupled entries at all costs
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