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General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: wizardofoz on November 06, 2023, 07:59:40 PM

Title: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: wizardofoz on November 06, 2023, 07:59:40 PM
RACE 12 - Dover Downs - DE - November 9, 2023
Conditions: MATRON STAKES 3 Year Old Colts & Geldings Declaration Fee $1,500
Gait: PacePurse: 170,850 Class: MATRON 3CP Distance: 1 Mile Post Time: 8:10 PM
 
PP    Horse   Med   2023 North America YTD    Driver    Trainer   ML   Claim
    Equip   Sts    W    P    S    Time    Earnings         Stable   Odds   Price
1    Fulton
    L    14     4     1     2     1:48.2S     $255449     Scott Zeron    Linda Toscano       
2    El Rey
     17     3     3     3     1:48.3M     $202832     Dexter Dunn
    Andrew Harris       
3    Hungry Angel Boy
   L    15     1     5     4     1:48.2M     $305915     Todd McCarthy    Tony Alagna       
4    Thunder Hunter Joe
     12     6     2     2     1:49.2S     $317926     Montrell Teague    Nicholas Devita       
5    Ken Hanover
    L    18     8     5     1     1:48.4H     $395103     David Miller    Roland Mallar       
6    Cannibal
   L    16     11     2     1     1:48.1M     $580730     Yannick Gingras    Nancy Takter       
7    Confederate
    L    13     12     1     0     1:46.1M     $1544929     Tim Tetrick    Brett Pelling       
8    Redwood Hanover
 3, Stay Hungry       16     4     2     2     1:49.0S     $204123     Dexter Dunn    Chris Ryder       
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: wizardofoz on November 06, 2023, 08:00:25 PM
After the recent midnight revelations he is back this Thursday from an outside post.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Wally C on November 06, 2023, 08:09:16 PM
Big
7514
7541

Smaller
5714
5741

Good Luck  tmbz1
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: JIDGE on November 06, 2023, 08:41:50 PM
I don't really get the purpose of this. If he wins, it's not going to prove anything we don't already know. And if he loses, it will only tarnish his excellent record. Anything can happen in a horse race especially on a smaller track and a bad post position.  I say go out a BC winner.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Bitter Truth on November 06, 2023, 08:48:20 PM
It's called greed.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Wally C on November 06, 2023, 08:50:24 PM
I don't really get the purpose of this. If he wins, it's not going to prove anything we don't already know. And if he loses, it will only tarnish his excellent record. Anything can happen in a horse race especially on a smaller track and a bad post position.  I say go out a BC winner.

Your conservative thinking makes sense. 

The decision was probably made a while ago.

It takes balls to be a gambler, horseman all a days, good to see DCF and connections lifted up their skirt and produced a set.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Bitter Truth on November 06, 2023, 09:03:57 PM
The race hasn't been run yet..Wouldn't be shocked If the seven hole might cause a slight 'COLD OR COUGH'. 'Precautionary' scratch.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: JIDGE on November 06, 2023, 09:14:01 PM
Your conservative thinking makes sense. 

The decision was probably made a while ago.

It takes balls to be a gambler, horseman all a days, good to see DCF and connections lifted up their skirt and produced a set.

It's a prep to race against the aged horses, Tattoo Artist, etc., in hopes of victory and padding his announced 20K stud fee.  It does come down to money, but I fear they are throwing caution to the wind.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Wally C on November 06, 2023, 09:25:47 PM
It's a prep to race against the aged horses, Tattoo Artist, etc., in hopes of victory and padding his announced 20K stud fee.  It does come down to money, but I fear they are throwing caution to the wind.

Probable 1/500 odds his book is full for the next 2 years, but like you said starting at 20, and then please call for pricing. 

I watched that treacherous wet track and how he wins wrapped up and BP said he's so "willing".  An understatement.

Well if he doesn't die on the track *God forbid*, get beamed up by a ufo from the finish line we'll see if he's to pacers as Walner is currently to trotters.

It's all above my pay grade.   ngc3
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: SeattleSlew on November 06, 2023, 09:37:06 PM
It's a prep to race against the aged horses, Tattoo Artist, etc., in hopes of victory and padding his announced 20K stud fee.  It does come down to money, but I fear they are throwing caution to the wind.

Yes, they tipped that they are strongly considering the FanDuel race (formerly TVG).
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Generation XYZ on November 07, 2023, 12:04:23 PM
Adam Bowden starting to act a lot more like Ahmed Zayat, (of American Pharaoh Fame). Just another greedy fuck pushing the horse for more money.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: onabrake on November 07, 2023, 12:22:14 PM
A free $ 85,425 for a trip of the Dover oval. Wins for fun.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: shotgunner on November 07, 2023, 03:25:14 PM
So wait, Diamond Creek are cowards for not going two heats at the Jug but a one off for history going for a quarter of the money is “greedy”. Make up your minds.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Jackie Mo on November 08, 2023, 09:12:02 AM
The race hasn't been run yet..Wouldn't be shocked If the seven hole might cause a slight 'COLD OR COUGH'. 'Precautionary' scratch.

post #7 is actually a good spot when your horse will be 1-9

why anyone would think post #7 is a bad draw is mindboggling
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Chips N Salsa on November 08, 2023, 10:40:05 AM
Adam Bowden starting to act a lot more like Ahmed Zayat, (of American Pharaoh Fame). Just another greedy fuck pushing the horse for more money.

Ahmed Zayat was biggest scumbag in T breds.  Owed everyone and complete degenerate loser.  Not many people know he sold Pharaoh after derby and agreed to get rest of racing money.  That's why they raced his guts out. 
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Grandstand Handicapper on November 08, 2023, 12:59:45 PM
This has nothing to do with greed. At least not for purse money, LOL. If you think it does then you don't know and don't understand the business, or the sport for that matter. This exclusively has to do with Bowden not wanting the foals excluded via the Gural. He's had numerous conversations with breeders, met with people during the KY sales, and he's getting the temperature of the market landscape. The breeders and the buyers have spoken. As a result of all this, this is all a plan to prep the horse to race against the older horses.

Racing against older horses, even a very brief 4yo racing career, did it hurt Captaintreacherou s? And somehow they syndicated him for $12mm or so. LOL.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Mailbox Money on November 08, 2023, 01:16:26 PM
I'm hoping that one of his competitors will get some help from the Trunk Vet and send a shock thru the Harness universe!💉💉💉💉💉💉💉💉💉 ngc3
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: wizardofoz on November 09, 2023, 01:54:19 PM
Program page:   https://harnessracingupdate.com/pdf/trackmaster/20231109ddx.pdf
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Kirbys Ace on November 09, 2023, 03:04:00 PM
Dovers short stretch and his post makes his racing style beat-able tonight.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: wizardofoz on November 09, 2023, 03:46:11 PM
Dovers short stretch and his post makes his racing style beat-able tonight.
He has to leave, tuck and then 1/4 move the horse to the lead by the 1/2 mile pole.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Bernie Madoff on November 09, 2023, 05:23:45 PM
He has to leave, tuck and then 1/4 move the horse to the lead by the 1/2 mile pole.



Or else?
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: wizardofoz on November 09, 2023, 06:15:41 PM
Might be too far back with the short stretch if Tetrick waits too long.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: hoosierboy on November 09, 2023, 07:27:15 PM
Might be too far back with the short stretch if Tetrick waits too long.

You better call the paddock and remind Tetrick how short the stretch is.  He has only won about 20 races in two weeks there
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Stan durbread on November 09, 2023, 08:48:28 PM
Or he can just sit outside then brush to front after 1/4. And win for fun
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Bitter Truth on November 09, 2023, 08:52:11 PM
Kudos to them for taking the risk..I felt like there was more to lose than gain but he is definitely a badass..Having his stablemate getting to the front first didn't hurt.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: hoosierboy on November 09, 2023, 08:56:34 PM
Congratulations Timmy glad you were able to win with a short stretch
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Stan durbread on November 09, 2023, 08:57:57 PM
Kudos to them for taking the risk..I felt like there was more to lose than gain but he is definitely a badass..Having his stablemate getting to the front first didn't hurt.
Not stable mate   Just common owner. Watch the Jug and tell me Yanick and Timmy play nice just because they both drive for DC
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Bitter Truth on November 09, 2023, 09:02:25 PM
That was then, this is now..Last I looked Confederate didn't race in the Jug.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: White Rabbit on November 09, 2023, 09:04:16 PM
Yannick folded Canibal in half , he run DMiller over his back, to turn him loose. If they’re stupid enough to race him in the TVG FFA he will get his nuts clipped.
He gets no curiosity release to the front in that race. He will get his head handed to him
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Mailbox Money on November 09, 2023, 09:21:41 PM
The Fan Dual is a free swing for him! When they beat him we will hear everything from scoped sick to he didn't like the surface, and every other reason under the sun and moon except the truth!
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Laag on November 09, 2023, 09:57:30 PM
Confederate jiggity jogs

he will win the TVG with a late rush. Remember Ruthless Hanover is coming back for this. He and Tattoo will burn themselves out
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: wizardofoz on November 10, 2023, 12:41:14 AM
He has to leave, tuck and then 1/4 move the horse to the lead by the 1/2 mile pole.
As was a textbook drive to win.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: cheapseats on November 10, 2023, 10:37:19 AM
When and where is the Fan Dual..TVG..race coming up?
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Grandstand Handicapper on November 10, 2023, 10:39:50 AM
Confederate won't need excuses racing against older horses. Remember, he is not racing against older horses for or to appease the fans. He's doing it for the breeders and yearling buyers. Period. You want to attract top quality mares and sell big money foals -- exclude foals and see what happens.

Same with Captaintreacherou s (who as an aside they even gave an abbreviated 4yo campaign).
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Stan durbread on November 10, 2023, 11:32:45 AM
Confederate won't need excuses racing against older horses. Remember, he is not racing against older horses for or to appease the fans. He's doing it for the breeders and yearling buyers. Period. You want to attract top quality mares and sell big money foals -- exclude foals and see what happens.

Same with Captaintreacherou s (who as an aside they even gave an abbreviated 4yo campaign).
Racing in the Fan Duel will not make his foals eligible to M1 stake races   And the buyers don’t care.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: wizardofoz on November 10, 2023, 11:35:49 AM
When and where is the Fan Dual..TVG..race coming up?
2 weeks from tomorrow night at the Meadowlands.   https://playmeadowlands.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/FANDUEL-FFA-CHAMPIONSHIP-PACE-may.pdf   He has an invite.  Races: The FanDuel Pace, FanDuel Trot, FanDuel Mare Trot, FanDuel Mare Pace, Valley Victory, Three Diamonds, Governor’s Cup & Goldsmith Maid.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Grandstand Handicapper on November 10, 2023, 11:45:45 AM
Racing in the Fan Duel will not make his foals eligible to M1 stake races   And the buyers don’t care.

An injury would. 🤔

And the buyers absolutely care. Go to the sales and ask the buyers -- look at a big ticket yearling and find our he's not eligible for X, Y, or Z. It's business. Buy a $200,000 yearling without a major sire stakes program, and you ain't buying him for a late closer. These are grand circuit purchases (hopefully, LOL).
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Stan durbread on November 10, 2023, 12:10:24 PM
An injury would. 🤔

And the buyers absolutely care. Go to the sales and ask the buyers -- look at a big ticket yearling and find our he's not eligible for X, Y, or Z. It's business. Buy a $200,000 yearling without a major sire stakes program, and you ain't buying him for a late closer. These are grand circuit purchases (hopefully, LOL).
What races do you think it disqualifies you for?  Only 1 as a 3yr old pacer
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Stan durbread on November 10, 2023, 12:11:37 PM
Downbytheseaaide doing just fine without M1 stakes.  So did Greenshoe first 2 crops
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: hoosierboy on November 10, 2023, 12:27:07 PM
An injury would. 🤔

And the buyers absolutely care. Go to the sales and ask the buyers -- look at a big ticket yearling and find our he's not eligible for X, Y, or Z. It's business. Buy a $200,000 yearling without a major sire stakes program, and you ain't buying him for a late closer. These are grand circuit purchases (hopefully, LOL).

The horse is standing in PA they have a huge sire stake program.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Grandstand Handicapper on November 10, 2023, 12:37:36 PM
Downbytheseaaide doing just fine without M1 stakes.  So did Greenshoe first 2 crops

And that's a marquee race for a stallion prospect. You don't make a stallion to do just fine and lose out on a marquee race. It ain't what it used to be, but that's a race that makes a stallion. If you aren't a commercial breeder it's all Greek.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Grandstand Handicapper on November 10, 2023, 12:39:14 PM
The horse is standing in PA they have a huge sire stake program.

You're kidding, right? A breeder wants to sell 200 and 300k yearlings, and the people who buy them are looking at sire stakes. Sire stakes is a fall-back position, it's an out, for a horse that is not top of the class.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Stan durbread on November 10, 2023, 12:47:54 PM
You're kidding, right? A breeder wants to sell 200 and 300k yearlings, and the people who buy them are looking at sire stakes. Sire stakes is a fall-back position, it's an out, for a horse that is not top of the class.
Name 1 stallion that the Gural rule has hurt. I can’t think of any. Looks like you right no one paying big money for the TDS offspring
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: wizardofoz on November 10, 2023, 04:34:31 PM
CON-federate did not really get challenged by his 3 year old crop.  In the TVG he will be pushed to the limit by the faster older horses.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Stan durbread on November 10, 2023, 07:52:12 PM
Fan Duel is a no lose situation. If he wins it elevates him to one of the best 3yr olds. If he loses it took older horses to beat him and he still has his WR and a pretty nice season behind him. I know they used the other horse for a rabbit but no other horse has been able to move their legs that fast. Even after big 3/4 times
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Harness Stats on November 10, 2023, 08:17:30 PM
It will be an interesting race. This was a very weak year for three year old pacers except for Confederate. Confederate's mark was set up by a stablemate. He will have to beat real horses in this race.
The "rabbit" has a 47.1 mark of his own so he's a real horse. 
Statistically speaking this year has been the best for fast 3 year olds since 2019. 
There were 23 horses taking a record of 49 flat or better in 2019, 23 in 2020, 24 in 2021, 18 in 2022, and 32 this year. 
It looks like a weak group because Confederate is so much better than the others but the crop is really above average
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Brown jug on November 10, 2023, 09:02:33 PM
thank you thorn
good facts
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Bitter Truth on November 10, 2023, 09:15:45 PM
Would be curious to see how the average times have progressed in general in those years.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Harness Stats on November 10, 2023, 09:21:18 PM
What races do you think it disqualifies you for?  Only 1 as a 3yr old pacer
Downbytheseaaide doing just fine without M1 stakes.  So did Greenshoe first 2 crops

Greenshoe ?  Only has one crop racing and it sucks with or without the rule.  Look at the horrible sales prices this week

As for how many races it involves here is the current list and it's more than one.

https://playmeadowlands.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/SRC-with-Exclusion-REVISED-2.4.2022.pdf
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Stan durbread on November 10, 2023, 09:32:24 PM
Greenshoe ?  Only has one crop racing and it sucks with or without the rule.  Look at the horrible sales prices this week

As for how many races it involves here is the current list and it's more than one.

https://playmeadowlands.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/SRC-with-Exclusion-REVISED-2.4.2022.pdf

How is Gural going to exclude horses racing in the Houghton and Doherty. They don’t go at his tacks. Empire Breeders is NY restricted. Jersey races are NJ restricted.
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Stan durbread on November 10, 2023, 09:33:21 PM
That is an old posting. TDS not on it
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Parked on November 11, 2023, 07:27:31 AM
Trying to cover bad decisions.. not going to the Jug, the set up race for his (time trial) mark, the midnight Lex. Fiasco, and publicly saying the farm retains their best yearlings.  Thats like having a steak cook off  with them starting with the tenderloin and you a chunk of bottom round. 
A couple more races is a win, win situation for them.  If he wins he beats some aged horses, if he gets beat he got hurt and his get will be eligible for the Mlands Pace. 
Title: Re: CON-federate is back in Matron stakes!
Post by: Brown jug on November 11, 2023, 07:57:02 AM
bring back the  time trials
no confusion there, you go on your own and create your own speed
i would put more credence in that than the "race he won"
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