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General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: Bitter Truth on April 29, 2026, 04:38:40 PM

Title: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Bitter Truth on April 29, 2026, 04:38:40 PM
I'm picking #12 Chief Wallabee  boxed with #6 Commandment and #18 Further Ado.On a side note
Derby day race 8 Pat Day Mile #1 Englishman is an absolute freak. Good luck to those betting.
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Pacer 2 on April 29, 2026, 06:56:58 PM
I'm doing an exacta box     Puma, Further Ado, Potente, Emerging Market
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: LUCPARK on April 29, 2026, 07:03:58 PM
Chads filly in oaks

Further had a tremendous output in last race
With highest beyers number of any one in derby it’s no t close


I’m betting with 8 zactas

And filly of chads with 6 zactas

2000 win on each

200 zactas.

PAULIE.  Aka. Can verify my bets 

He loves danon

I used him in zactas

Good luck all  tmbz1
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: GOAT on April 29, 2026, 07:40:40 PM
Baffert has two in the Derby and both are longshots. Going with Litmus Test . Martin Garcia aboard.
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Kirby's Ace on April 29, 2026, 08:16:24 PM
Chads filly in oaks

Further had a tremendous output in last race
With highest beyers number of any one in derby it’s no t close


I’m betting with 8 zactas

And filly of chads with 6 zactas

2000 win on each

200 zactas.

PAULIE.  Aka. Can verify my bets 

He loves danon

I used him in zactas

Good luck all  tmbz1

I hope he post his picks early so I can toss those selections
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Dingus on April 29, 2026, 08:24:33 PM
I'm picking #12 Chief Wallabee  boxed with #6 Commandment and #18 Further Ado.On a side note
Derby day race 8 Pat Day Mile #1 Englishman is an absolute freak. Good luck to those betting.

I’m with you on the 12-6 box
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Pacer 2 on April 29, 2026, 08:24:49 PM
I hope he post his picks early so I can toss those selections

     tmbz1 tmbz1 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Pacer 2 on April 29, 2026, 08:35:11 PM
Chads filly in oaks

Further had a tremendous output in last race
With highest beyers number of any one in derby it’s no t close


I’m betting with 8 zactas

And filly of chads with 6 zactas

2000 win on each

200 zactas.

PAULIE.  Aka. Can verify my bets 

He loves danon

I used him in zactas

Good luck all  tmbz1

   I'm calling BULLSHIT on those amounts you RETARDED DWARF!    ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: goblue on April 29, 2026, 09:27:34 PM
My opinions:

I like #12 Chief Wallabee a lot, but I'm afraid he'll be over-bet. When everyone has the same "sleeper" horse, are they really a sleeper? He's still my top choice for all the reasons everyone loves him.

I loved the effort from #16 Pavlovian in the LA derby. I think the race shape sets up nicely for him. Has the most race experience, which historically is an advantage. Not sure why he isn't getting more love. A price horse to include in exotics.

#20 Fulleffort's last two races on the synthetic at Turfway were absolutely monster performances, and he is still improving. I think he is at a minor tactical disadvantage here and I don't know if he'll like the dirt, but based on eye test alone, he is a top pick for me.

#19 Golden Tempo's last race is a toss. Brutal trip and awful ride; still put in a big effort. I could see him taking a huge step forward here.


My tickets:

12 $50 WPS = $150

12/1,6,16,19,20 $10 ex key box = $100

1,6,7,9,12,16,19,20 $2 ex box = $112

12/1,6,7,9,16,19,20/1,6,7,9,16,19,20 $1 tri wheel box = $126

Total: $488
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: LUCPARK on April 29, 2026, 10:33:44 PM
   I'm calling BULLSHIT on those amounts you RETARDED DWARF!    ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3

YEA IM REALLY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT A BUSTOUT TROLL BELIEVES  ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Kirby's Ace on April 29, 2026, 10:46:52 PM
Derby

#15 Emerging Market (Pratt's pick over #6 who was my 1st pick)

15-6-1

 11.wp
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Calhoun on April 30, 2026, 09:20:23 AM
Full Effort - Scratched - ankle

Ocelli in.

-drf
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Janny on April 30, 2026, 11:44:06 AM
Chief Wallabee has looked mighty good in training the past few weeks.
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Calhoun on April 30, 2026, 12:48:41 PM
Derby

Golden Temple

Chief Wallabee
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Calhoun on April 30, 2026, 12:53:32 PM
Fun Fact

2000 Breeders Cup Juvenile (2yo's)
14 Starters
Average 4.8 Starts per horse

2026 Derby (3 yo's)
20 Starters
Average 4.8 Starts per horse
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Yonkers1A on April 30, 2026, 02:45:27 PM
1) So Happy, 2) The Puma, 3) Wonder Dean, 8-9-10, box them up and make some money
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: toothman on April 30, 2026, 02:51:20 PM
Is the rail in the Derby the official kiss of death?
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Yonkers1A on April 30, 2026, 03:48:39 PM
Is the rail in the Derby the official kiss of death?

I hope so
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Pacer 2 on April 30, 2026, 06:04:49 PM
Is the rail in the Derby the official kiss of death?

   Its a slight disadvantage but hardly the kiss of death.
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: GOAT on April 30, 2026, 07:41:05 PM
Calvin Borrel made his living on the rail at Churchill Downs.
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Calhoun on April 30, 2026, 08:42:12 PM
Oaks Day Early Scratches

R3: 1
R5: 12, 14, 15, 16
R6: 3, 7, 14, 15
R7: 2
R9: 9
R10: 8
R12: 7
R13: 6, 8, 12

Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Calhoun on April 30, 2026, 09:22:21 PM
Oaks Day Selects
R4   Couplet
R8   Sippin Pretty
9R   Skrippy
R12   Indigo Woods
R13   Percys Bar
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: LUCPARK on April 30, 2026, 09:23:58 PM
 I USED PERCY UP AND DOWN IN LARGE ZACTAS.I CANT GET OFF OF CHADS FILLY I POUNDED HER ...

SEE WHAT HAPPENS
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: SRP22 on May 01, 2026, 08:29:30 AM
Happy Oaks Day

We start the day with Renegade as the current Derby favorite at 5/1
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Pacer 2 on May 01, 2026, 08:37:25 AM
I USED PERCY UP AND DOWN IN LARGE ZACTAS.I CANT GET OFF OF CHADS FILLY I POUNDED HER ...

SEE WHAT HAPPENS


   Why am I not surprised you fuck animals?     ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: JT on May 01, 2026, 08:40:55 AM
Thanks for starting a thread Bitter. My choices won't be popular from what I read but trends are made to be broken, just like the Big 10 winning the natty in college basketball for the first time in 25 years. Post 1 hasn't won in 40 years, but this is the year. The starting gate changed in 2020, so the 1 isn't as bad a spot. Irad has ridden many of these but he opted for #1 Renegade. The 1 hole will not hurt this horse. . He will drop way back and then come from the clouds and win. If I would trust anyone to navigate through the field it would be him. My other top selection would break another trend and that's #15 Emerging Market. Last time a horse with only 2 starts won was back in the 1880's. Flavian Prat is probably the hottest jockey in the country right now, and his win in Louisiana was impressive and that prep race is 9.5f. So I will box those two horses.
Underneath I am fading the Florida Derby runners... if you pick 1 you almost have to pick 3.. so underneath #7 Danon Bourbon monster from Japan, #8 So Happy Mike Smith never can be discounted and #11 Incredibolt..big longshot I really like who has won over the Churchill surface twice already.
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Kirby's Ace on May 01, 2026, 10:08:40 AM
Oaks....Meaning with Percy's Bar...But if Trigger picks either of them then throw them out!
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Calhoun on May 01, 2026, 10:51:06 AM
Renegade will wear three-quarter shoes on both fronts in the Derby as he did in Arkansas.

Quarter cracks an issue for the colt.

-Paulick



Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Papillon on May 01, 2026, 11:09:49 AM
not sure if I am repeating this information for the Derby.......

#5 Right To Party--SCRATCHED
#13 Silent Tactic---SCRATCHED
#20 Fulleffort------SCRATCHED


#21 Great White  draws in
#22 Ocelli           draws in
#23 Robusta       draws in


Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Bitter Truth on May 01, 2026, 12:43:37 PM
I see no reason with favorable track conditions that Englishman can't break the track record for a mile
at Churchill which was set in 2014 by Fruit Ludt in 1:33.26. He can go 1:08 just galloping , home in an
honest 24 gets the job done. I say he does it. Race 8 Sat. Pat Day Mile tmbz1
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Calhoun on May 01, 2026, 03:13:41 PM
r6 Camila Catslina and Carmel Coast
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Calhoun on May 01, 2026, 08:52:00 PM
I USED PERCY UP AND DOWN IN LARGE ZACTAS.I CANT GET OFF OF CHADS FILLY I POUNDED HER ...

SEE WHAT HAPPENS
Attaboy
Nice price too
Hope you caught good.
 tmbz1
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Papillon on May 01, 2026, 08:53:19 PM
Chads filly in oaks

Further had a tremendous output in last race
With highest beyers number of any one in derby it’s no t close


I’m betting with 8 zactas

And filly of chads with 6 zactas

2000 win on each

200 zactas.

PAULIE.  Aka. Can verify my bets 

He loves danon

I used him in zactas

Good luck all  tmbz1

 tmbz1 tmbz1
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: JT on May 01, 2026, 09:01:07 PM
Nicely done LucPark.. I love seeing people win on here!!
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Bitter Truth on May 01, 2026, 09:33:36 PM
Beauty pick Rocco!  tmbz1 Did Pacer give you that one? ngc3
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Sweet on May 01, 2026, 09:36:30 PM
Pacer 2 is going through Rocky's trash for dinner and old socks  ngc3...Frankie's life is about a million times better than that broke ass jelly bitch  ;D
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Calhoun on May 02, 2026, 08:06:14 AM
The Puma is scratched

-drf Grening
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Bitter Truth on May 02, 2026, 03:29:33 PM
No record [damn close] and no win for Englishman. I gave him the kiss of death.
Couldn't shake that Baffert horse. Oh well
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Sweet on May 02, 2026, 03:33:29 PM
No record [damn close] and no win for Englishman. I gave him the kiss of death.
Couldn't shake that Baffert horse. Oh well

He just can't be rated is the problem. 

Races at one speed.

CV got his BB vitamin supplements too  ngc3
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Bitter Truth on May 02, 2026, 03:42:00 PM
He did the 1:08 I predicted but couldn't do the 24 last 1/4. If he had, would have won and got record.
They missed the record by .6 of a second. Thought he had it when he wandered inside and got a
little separation.
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Papillon on May 02, 2026, 03:46:56 PM
way back in 2003 a horse named Najran raced a 1:31 and change mile in the Westchester Handicap at Belmont--a prep for The Met Mile
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: JT on May 02, 2026, 03:50:18 PM
He did the 1:08 I predicted but couldn't do the 24 last 1/4. If he had, would have won and got record.
They missed the record by .6 of a second. Thought he had it when he wandered inside and got a
little separation.
A nicer day out and it would have been broke.. its freezing cold here today.
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Sweet on May 02, 2026, 03:54:26 PM
Englishman is a great sprinter and gets retarded after that, 14 seconds or so final furlong.

He'd run the derby in 205, 206.

Whatever  ngc3
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Bitter Truth on May 02, 2026, 04:19:20 PM
For fun: Top 5 Jocks
1 Pratt
2 Jose Ortiz
3 Irad Ortiz
4 Gafflione
5 Saez
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: JT on May 02, 2026, 04:42:11 PM
For fun: Top 5 Jocks
1 Pratt
2 Jose Ortiz
3 Irad Ortiz
4 Gafflione
5 Saez
Pretty spot on I'd say.. maybe Jr. Just box those 5 jockeys in the Derby
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Harness racer on May 02, 2026, 04:50:44 PM
For fun: Top 5 Jocks
1 Pratt
2 Jose Ortiz
3 Irad Ortiz
4 Gafflione
5 Saez

Irad
Prat
Jose Ortiz
Gafflione
Torres
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Calhoun on May 02, 2026, 07:49:46 PM
Derby

Golden Temple

Chief Wallabee

Told you
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Sweet on May 02, 2026, 07:58:36 PM
Told you

Nice pick  tmbz1

Sorry I got off his trail.

Why CW took so much money is beyond me, bad pairing.

Knowing how you wager, you hit a nice win wager.
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Calhoun on May 05, 2026, 05:14:03 PM
GPS  chart shows Ocelli ran 19 feet further than Golden Tempo and was fastest on adjusted basis.

Ocelli will have the best Sheet/Ragozin figures. Should be out next couple days.
Title: Re: Derby / Oaks Picks / thoughts
Post by: Sweet on May 05, 2026, 05:25:21 PM
GPS  chart shows Ocelli ran 19 feet further than Golden Tempo and was fastest on adjusted basis.

Ocelli will have the best Sheet/Ragozin figures. Should be out next couple days.

Too bad your dumb dead grandpa told you not to bet to show you bitch, paid almost 40!  ngc3
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