HORSEPLOP.COM
General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: Chips N Salsa on August 16, 2025, 03:14:38 PM
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Tall Dark Stranger’s Shadow: How One Stallion’s Early Record Risks Setting Standardbred Pacing Back
The hype cycle vs. the scorecard
Tall Dark Stranger (Bettor’s Delight—Precocious Beauty) was an electric racehorse and a 2020 U.S. Horse of the Year. No one disputes that. But the only measure that matters to the breed is what his foals do on the track and in the breeding shed. After the early crops hit the races, the scoreboard hasn’t matched the sales-ring hype: first American crop yearlings averaged over $80,000, with 27 selling for six figures, yet the initial waves of 2-year-old performers delivered only scattered highlights and few breakout headliners relative to the hype and the mare quality he saw. Harnesslink
In Australasia, where his oldest are just turning two, the returns have been similarly modest so far—handfuls of winners, not a takeover. Early snapshots aren’t destiny, but they matter when a stallion was priced and promoted as a generational sire. Empire Stallions
Even in North America, where the book sizes and mare quality were premium from the jump, the narrative has required careful marketing spin. A 2024 Kentucky Sire Stakes win by a filly like KARMA showed he can get a quality horse—but one or two bright spots don’t offset a broader pattern of ordinary results from extraordinary opportunities. Empire Stallions
The opportunity cost of blue-chip mares
The breed advances when the very best broodmares are mated to sires that lift the average—producing durable, fast, and sound stock that stand up to stakes calendars and long campaigns. Tall Dark Stranger received that privilege. He bred large books of elite mares in 2021–2023, producing big foal crops and eye-popping yearling averages. When that pipeline yields “nice” horses instead of consistently superior ones, the loss isn’t just financial—it’s genetic opportunity cost: those same mares could have gone to stallions with stronger strike rates for top-end performers. Harnesslink+1
The “blue-blood loser filly” problem
Here’s the uncomfortable downstream effect: fashion drives matings. Fillies by hot, high-priced sires out of royal mares are valuable on pedigree alone. If many of those fillies underperform on the track, they still head to the broodmare band on name recognition and family—dragging their modest athletic merit into the next generation. That’s how mediocrity compounds:
1. Pedigree momentum keeps them in demand despite race records.
2. Breeding inertia means they’ll be bred early and often.
3. Selection bias preserves the wrong traits (speed flashes without durability; pedigree over constitution).
Multiply that by a few hundred mares across two or three crops and you’ve redirected thousands of matings over a decade toward average instead of excellent.
Early stats: less than the marketing promised
Public databases and farm blurbs tell part of the story. Hanover’s own page pitched Tall Dark Stranger as a top-10 three-year-old pacing sire by progeny earnings in 2025 as of June 11, which sounds impressive until you benchmark against expectations for a horse that got elite mares and elite numbers. Being “top-10” isn’t the point when you were sold as era-defining. The question is conversion rate: how many stakes horses, how many six-figure earners, how many true open-class prospects relative to book size and mare quality? (Those ratios—more than raw dollars—separate breed-shapers from passengers.) hanoverpa.com
Broader USTA sire tables show he’s competitive in money lists, but not running away from contemporaries who had lower books or less gilded opportunities. That gap between promise and production is exactly what “sets the breed back”: we paid the genetic premium and didn’t collect the genetic dividend. ustrotting.com+1
Why this matters for the next 10–15 years
• Genetic bottlenecking. When one fashion sire hoovers up a big share of the best mares, the whole crop tilts toward his genotype. If his average runner is merely good, you’ve just flattened a generation’s ceiling.
• Soundness and longevity. The breed needs horses that can race hard at two and still matter at five. If the typical foal isn’t robust (or if the sire’s get skew toward flash-in-the-pan 2-year-old speed without staying power), stakes calendars become more attritional, not more competitive.
• Economics of false signals. Sales chase pedigrees. Trainers and owners chase sale-ring signals. If the signal is wrong (high price ≠ high performance), capital is misallocated, good mares get “parked” into mediocre outcomes, and programs misread what’s actually improving the athlete.
The uncomfortable fix: change breeder behavior
If you want to stop a slide before it starts, you don’t wait five crops. You correct course now:
1. Mate on performance, not logo. Audit each mare’s nick outcomes and biomechanical fit with multiple sires—not just the fashionable one. Put performance ratios (stakes winners per starters; $100k earners per live foal) ahead of median yearling price.
2. Penalize underperformance quickly. If a stallion’s first two racing crops underdeliver versus book quality, farms and syndicates should cut the fee, reduce the book, and allow market share to return to sires with better conversion.
3. Protect the broodmare band. Don’t automatically retire underachieving fillies by brand-name sires into the broodmare pool at premium fees. Make them earn the right via durability and class, or cull ruthlessly.
4. Diversify the gene pool. Use more outcross and proven “value” sires with high strike rates per opportunity. The breed gets better when more stallions get real shots and only the best rise.
“But he has winners…” — separating signal from noise
Every fashionable stallion will have winners and a few nice stakes horses. The question is relative to opportunity. Tall Dark Stranger’s supporters can point to stakes wins (e.g., KYSS) and money lists that keep him visible. That’s not the standard he was sold against. With the mare base and numbers he enjoyed, a true breed-lifter would be dominating the top end, not just holding a place on aggregate earnings lists. The early Australasian data—limited winners from a manageable starter pool—reinforces the theme: pleasant results, not paradigm-shifting. Empire Stallions+1
The long tail: how a single stallion can delay progress
Because he touched so many of the best mares in a short window, his genetic “echo” will ring through yearling sales and broodmare bands for a decade. If the echo is average, you’ve muted the breed’s progress: slower stakes miles at the margins, fewer iron horses, fewer true open performers—while pedigrees still look glossy on paper. That’s the definition of setting the breed back: using up the premium ingredients without elevating the recipe.
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Could be a great broodmare sire. Many duds have been.
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What a fantastic read. Thank you for posting that
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Could be a great broodmare sire. Many duds have been.
Name one?
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Excellent observation. Are you an owner, breeder , agent or trainer?
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Chips N Salsa can't get a license ANYWHERE so he bashes whatever and whomever he can. Why don't you come clean and admit who you are and what you did asshole?
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Tall Dark Stranger (Bettor’s Delight—Precocious Beauty) was an electric racehorse and a 2020 U.S. Horse of the Year. No one disputes that.
I dispute this statement. Party Girl Hill had a better record AND beat the boy. Tall Dark Stranger did nothing to match that. It was the antiquated thinking of the harness arcing establishment that did not make Party Girl Hill the horse of the year.
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I dispute this statement. Party Girl Hill had a better record AND beat the boy. Tall Dark Stranger did nothing to match that. It was the antiquated thinking of the harness arcing establishment that did not make Party Girl Hill the horse of the year.
"TDS did nothing to match that" ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 Yeah, winning the Meadowlands Pace, The NA Cup and The Cane is nothing ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
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Name one?
Pine Chip
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This post is way far fetched. He will never ruin the breed and while he hasn't set the world on fire yet he could still produce a few champs. Time will tell, what isn't far fetched is the fact that Uber Sire Bettors Delight has never had an extender that was great in the breeding shed. This was his last chance.
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One sire will not destroy the breed. If that were the case Ralph Hanover or Deweycheatumnhowe would have accomplished that years ago. No TDS has not taken the torch from Bettor's Delight, but he is proving to be a competent sire -- much better than any other son of Bettor's Delight -- Bettor's Wish's success still in question.
Perhaps a better topic would be why hasn't Bettor's Delight delivered a successful sire comparable to his own accomplishments? With ten less years Somebeachsomewher e, even in death, keeps delivering sire after sire -- his latest appears to be Cattlewash.
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This post is way far fetched. He will never ruin the breed and while he hasn't set the world on fire yet he could still produce a few champs. Time will tell, what isn't far fetched is the fact that Uber Sire Bettors Delight has never had an extender that was great in the breeding shed. This was his last chance.
Nijinsky will be standing in NY next year. As told by The Answer weeks ago he is injured and done racing.
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This post is way far fetched. He will never ruin the breed and while he hasn't set the world on fire yet he could still produce a few champs. Time will tell, what isn't far fetched is the fact that Uber Sire Bettors Delight has never had an extender that was great in the breeding shed. This was his last chance.
Subject was started by a felon who got thrown out of Takter's barn and now bashes anything that Takter is or was a part of.
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Most of Takters Super Star horses have been duds in the breeding shed. He hasn’t destroyed the breed yet and neither did Bill Robinson
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Most of Takters Super Star horses have been duds in the breeding shed. He hasn’t destroyed the breed yet and neither did Bill Robinson
Some of Robinson’s were great sires. Art Major was very good. But the two most influential were Mach Three for obvious reasons and I think Cams Card Shark who will change the to breed. Cams Card Shark - Cams Seeker - Goo Goo Ga Ga - Captain Corey.
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That hits HARD.!! Good read/analysis tho, but harness racing will be in serious jeopardy in 10-20 yrs so it won't matter..
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Could be a great broodmare sire. Many duds have been.
Nihilator was a dud….one of the best broodmare sites of all time.
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"TDS did nothing to match that" ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 Yeah, winning the Meadowlands Pace, The NA Cup and The Cane is nothing ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
Party Girl Hill did the equivalent and then went to Lexington AND beat the colts. If TDS would have raced older horses that would have put him in the class of Party Girl Hill beating the boys.
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TDS was a very fast rat !!! Remember both wins at Lex as a 3 year old ?? Yannick got fined for excessive use of the whip both times.. That turned me off. Looked at 0 of his get. Saved me a ton of $$$..
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Its not what you pay for them its what you give to them that makes them win. Come on we have been over this time and time again.
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TDS was a very fast rat !!! Remember both wins at Lex as a 3 year old ?? Yannick got fined for excessive use of the whip both times.. That turned me off. Looked at 0 of his get. Saved me a ton of $$$..
You might want to take another look. 3 wins last night at the Red Mile and 3 seconds, including a hard closing second to Brandon Blvd in the feature.
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You might want to take another look. 3 wins last night at the Red Mile and 3 seconds, including a hard closing second to Brandon Blvd in the feature.
The real story:
https://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/sire_stats/stats.cfm?type=earnings&gait=P&yr=2025&age=2
https://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/sire_stats/stats.cfm?type=avg&gait=P&yr=2025&age=2
https://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/sire_stats/stats.cfm?type=earnings&gait=P&yr=2025&age=3
https://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/sire_stats/stats.cfm?type=avg&gait=P&yr=2025&age=3
Not great.
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The real story:
https://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/sire_stats/stats.cfm?type=earnings&gait=P&yr=2025&age=2
https://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/sire_stats/stats.cfm?type=avg&gait=P&yr=2025&age=2
https://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/sire_stats/stats.cfm?type=earnings&gait=P&yr=2025&age=3
https://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/sire_stats/stats.cfm?type=avg&gait=P&yr=2025&age=3
Not great.
You're right he's not great -- but he is competent. And second crop is proving better than his first.
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Party Girl Hill did the equivalent and then went to Lexington AND beat the colts. If TDS would have raced older horses that would have put him in the class of Party Girl Hill beating the boys.
Big fucking deal. So she beat colts. I thought this was a discussion between her and TDS.
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legit and interesting topic, better than 99% of them on this site
as a commercial stallion he is done , none and i mean none of the mares he got in the first two years will be bred back to him
some of those mares doubled down in year one and two and many were young captain mares or slightly older sbsw mares
to the writers point now those mares need to make a recovery, not their fault that the tds blood added very little, they will now get bred to confederate, cannibal , huntsville, legendary hanover etc to try and get back on track
but these tds foals will not regress the bred, its a blip on the radar, the 50% that are colts will be raced wherever they fit, the 50% that are females and especially the well bred ones will be given a chance to see if they can overcome tds being their sire and have their maternal lineage shine through
having said that if he continues to have a decent year this year and even next year at $8k stud fee he will get takers, especially those in PA sires just looking for a decent horse and have no illusions of the grand circuit etc , but the top breeders and owners of the blue blood fillies will not be going back to tds
what will be interesting is how much does hanover continue to support tds with what quality mares they have
their website only shows 9 tds foals being born in 2024 ( selling this fall) and 13 foals born in 2025
hey , it happens , not every sire is going to hit
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Nijinsky will be standing in NY next year. As told by The Answer weeks ago he is injured and done racing.
Maybe not quite done yet per article on Standardbred Canada.
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legit and interesting topic, better than 99% of them on this site
as a commercial stallion he is done , none and i mean none of the mares he got in the first two years will be bred back to him
some of those mares doubled down in year one and two and many were young captain mares or slightly older sbsw mares
to the writers point now those mares need to make a recovery, not their fault that the tds blood added very little, they will now get bred to confederate, cannibal , huntsville, legendary hanover etc to try and get back on track
but these tds foals will not regress the bred, its a blip on the radar, the 50% that are colts will be raced wherever they fit, the 50% that are females and especially the well bred ones will be given a chance to see if they can overcome tds being their sire and have their maternal lineage shine through
having said that if he continues to have a decent year this year and even next year at $8k stud fee he will get takers, especially those in PA sires just looking for a decent horse and have no illusions of the grand circuit etc , but the top breeders and owners of the blue blood fillies will not be going back to tds
what will be interesting is how much does hanover continue to support tds with what quality mares they have
their website only shows 9 tds foals being born in 2024 ( selling this fall) and 13 foals born in 2025
hey , it happens , not every sire is going to hit
Yea, you are right on with this post. The mares will be fine, TDS will be a decent broodmare sire, I don't think that will be an issue. He wasn't a total flop.....just not in the upper echelon of top sires. And yes.....not every stud is a hit. 43xc.2
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Maybe not quite done yet per article on Standardbred Canada.
You'll see him back.....as far as a sire....who would have though being a Bettors Delight would kill your stallion career?
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Hanover bred 16 mares this year to TDS
And have 13 foals of 2025
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Tall Dark Stranger’s Shadow: How One Stallion’s Early Record Risks Setting Standardbred Pacing Back
The hype cycle vs. the scorecard
Tall Dark Stranger (Bettor’s Delight—Precocious Beauty) was an electric racehorse and a 2020 U.S. Horse of the Year. No one disputes that. But the only measure that matters to the breed is what his foals do on the track and in the breeding shed. After the early crops hit the races, the scoreboard hasn’t matched the sales-ring hype: first American crop yearlings averaged over $80,000, with 27 selling for six figures, yet the initial waves of 2-year-old performers delivered only scattered highlights and few breakout headliners relative to the hype and the mare quality he saw. Harnesslink
In Australasia, where his oldest are just turning two, the returns have been similarly modest so far—handfuls of winners, not a takeover. Early snapshots aren’t destiny, but they matter when a stallion was priced and promoted as a generational sire. Empire Stallions
Even in North America, where the book sizes and mare quality were premium from the jump, the narrative has required careful marketing spin. A 2024 Kentucky Sire Stakes win by a filly like KARMA showed he can get a quality horse—but one or two bright spots don’t offset a broader pattern of ordinary results from extraordinary opportunities. Empire Stallions
The opportunity cost of blue-chip mares
The breed advances when the very best broodmares are mated to sires that lift the average—producing durable, fast, and sound stock that stand up to stakes calendars and long campaigns. Tall Dark Stranger received that privilege. He bred large books of elite mares in 2021–2023, producing big foal crops and eye-popping yearling averages. When that pipeline yields “nice” horses instead of consistently superior ones, the loss isn’t just financial—it’s genetic opportunity cost: those same mares could have gone to stallions with stronger strike rates for top-end performers. Harnesslink+1
The “blue-blood loser filly” problem
Here’s the uncomfortable downstream effect: fashion drives matings. Fillies by hot, high-priced sires out of royal mares are valuable on pedigree alone. If many of those fillies underperform on the track, they still head to the broodmare band on name recognition and family—dragging their modest athletic merit into the next generation. That’s how mediocrity compounds:
1. Pedigree momentum keeps them in demand despite race records.
2. Breeding inertia means they’ll be bred early and often.
3. Selection bias preserves the wrong traits (speed flashes without durability; pedigree over constitution).
Multiply that by a few hundred mares across two or three crops and you’ve redirected thousands of matings over a decade toward average instead of excellent.
Early stats: less than the marketing promised
Public databases and farm blurbs tell part of the story. Hanover’s own page pitched Tall Dark Stranger as a top-10 three-year-old pacing sire by progeny earnings in 2025 as of June 11, which sounds impressive until you benchmark against expectations for a horse that got elite mares and elite numbers. Being “top-10” isn’t the point when you were sold as era-defining. The question is conversion rate: how many stakes horses, how many six-figure earners, how many true open-class prospects relative to book size and mare quality? (Those ratios—more than raw dollars—separate breed-shapers from passengers.) hanoverpa.com
Broader USTA sire tables show he’s competitive in money lists, but not running away from contemporaries who had lower books or less gilded opportunities. That gap between promise and production is exactly what “sets the breed back”: we paid the genetic premium and didn’t collect the genetic dividend. ustrotting.com+1
Why this matters for the next 10–15 years
• Genetic bottlenecking. When one fashion sire hoovers up a big share of the best mares, the whole crop tilts toward his genotype. If his average runner is merely good, you’ve just flattened a generation’s ceiling.
• Soundness and longevity. The breed needs horses that can race hard at two and still matter at five. If the typical foal isn’t robust (or if the sire’s get skew toward flash-in-the-pan 2-year-old speed without staying power), stakes calendars become more attritional, not more competitive.
• Economics of false signals. Sales chase pedigrees. Trainers and owners chase sale-ring signals. If the signal is wrong (high price ≠ high performance), capital is misallocated, good mares get “parked” into mediocre outcomes, and programs misread what’s actually improving the athlete.
The uncomfortable fix: change breeder behavior
If you want to stop a slide before it starts, you don’t wait five crops. You correct course now:
1. Mate on performance, not logo. Audit each mare’s nick outcomes and biomechanical fit with multiple sires—not just the fashionable one. Put performance ratios (stakes winners per starters; $100k earners per live foal) ahead of median yearling price.
2. Penalize underperformance quickly. If a stallion’s first two racing crops underdeliver versus book quality, farms and syndicates should cut the fee, reduce the book, and allow market share to return to sires with better conversion.
3. Protect the broodmare band. Don’t automatically retire underachieving fillies by brand-name sires into the broodmare pool at premium fees. Make them earn the right via durability and class, or cull ruthlessly.
4. Diversify the gene pool. Use more outcross and proven “value” sires with high strike rates per opportunity. The breed gets better when more stallions get real shots and only the best rise.
“But he has winners…” — separating signal from noise
Every fashionable stallion will have winners and a few nice stakes horses. The question is relative to opportunity. Tall Dark Stranger’s supporters can point to stakes wins (e.g., KYSS) and money lists that keep him visible. That’s not the standard he was sold against. With the mare base and numbers he enjoyed, a true breed-lifter would be dominating the top end, not just holding a place on aggregate earnings lists. The early Australasian data—limited winners from a manageable starter pool—reinforces the theme: pleasant results, not paradigm-shifting. Empire Stallions+1
The long tail: how a single stallion can delay progress
Because he touched so many of the best mares in a short window, his genetic “echo” will ring through yearling sales and broodmare bands for a decade. If the echo is average, you’ve muted the breed’s progress: slower stakes miles at the margins, fewer iron horses, fewer true open performers—while pedigrees still look glossy on paper. That’s the definition of setting the breed back: using up the premium ingredients without elevating the recipe.
Tall Dark Stranger 2yr. old colt Ubrute blew by undefeated Brandon Blvd in the stretch at the Red Mile today -- 1:50.1 last quarter 25.3.
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Tall Dark Stranger 2yr. old colt Ubrute blew by undefeated Brandon Blvd in the stretch at the Red Mile today -- 1:50.1 last quarter 25.3.
Burke at the Red Mile doesn’t count he’s racing on jet fuel while the rest are racing lowest octane available.
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Burke at the Red Mile doesn’t count he’s racing on jet fuel while the rest are racing lowest octane available.
Fair point, but Warrawee Ubeaut was a hell of a mare. She has every right to throw a good one regardless of sire or trainer.
IMO, this article about TDS is just noise. He still has good bloodlines, he was still a good horse. Plenty of sires before him were great on the track and nothings in the shed and the breed hasn't been destroyed by it.
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Until the later season big $$ races are decided and the stats tallied, TDS (the horse) is looking pretty decent; racking up better numbers than Captain Treacherous both in the wins and avg./start for 2 yo and I don't see anyone bemoaning Captain Treacherous as "destroying" the industry. This is just claptrap clickbait IMHO.. You can check the ytd numbers yourself:
https://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/sire_stats/stats.cfm?type=earnings&gait=P&yr=2025&age=2
https://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/sire_stats/stats.cfm?type=avg&gait=P&yr=2025&age=2
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Bloodlines are just something nice for breeders and the upper 10% of owners to talk about.
About any horse that does very well on the track has bloodlines that can justify its success.
I wonder how many breeders scoffed at the breeding of the Hambo winner. ?
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Until the later season big $$ races are decided and the stats tallied, TDS (the horse) is looking pretty decent; racking up better numbers than Captain Treacherous both in the wins and avg./start for 2 yo and I don't see anyone bemoaning Captain Treacherous as "destroying" the industry. This is just claptrap clickbait IMHO.. You can check the ytd numbers yourself:
https://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/sire_stats/stats.cfm?type=earnings&gait=P&yr=2025&age=2
https://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/sire_stats/stats.cfm?type=avg&gait=P&yr=2025&age=2
12th is average earnings of two year olds with more starters than all but three.
16th in average earnings of three year olds. only one has more starters.
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Until the later season big $$ races are decided and the stats tallied, TDS (the horse) is looking pretty decent; racking up better numbers than Captain Treacherous both in the wins and avg./start for 2 yo and I don't see anyone bemoaning Captain Treacherous as "destroying" the industry. This is just claptrap clickbait IMHO.. You can check the ytd numbers yourself:
https://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/sire_stats/stats.cfm?type=earnings&gait=P&yr=2025&age=2
https://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/sire_stats/stats.cfm?type=avg&gait=P&yr=2025&age=2
Very valid point. But are we witnessing the slow decent of Treacherous? He's yet to produce a legitimate siring son. His 2yr. old crop this year are overshadowed by Cattlewash, TDS, Stay Hungry, and Sweet Lou. Unless a champ pops out of the weeds his yearling numbers are sure to suffer.
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Destroy the breed huh? I don't know about that, LOL, but there is a downside to a stallion being too popular so to speak. I don't think that's going to happen with TDS, LOL. Is the "genetic bottlenecking" concept real? Absolutely. However, it doesn't happen to any substantial extent, because commercial breeders have far too much to lose. You can see it in one year, maybe the second, but breeders know much more and much sooner, so it doesn't happen much longer. I haven't seen this happen with any stallion who shifted or damaged the breeding pool in a detrimental way in the last 50 years. There are plenty of duds, but their impact is inconsequential. One example, and it didn't shift the breeding pool, was Niatross. However, some will say he positively impacted the breeding pool.
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Very valid point. But are we witnessing the slow decent of Treacherous? He's yet to produce a legitimate siring son. His 2yr. old crop this year are overshadowed by Cattlewash, TDS, Stay Hungry, and Sweet Lou. Unless a champ pops out of the weeds his yearling numbers are sure to suffer.
I don not think TDS is doing as well as your other examples. Cattlewash is cleaning up in Ontario but will that hold up in all of North America?
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lets wait until the end of the season and then determine what stallions are good /bad/indifferent
right now there is too much influence of sires stakes for some stallions and not for others
as for burke he could have a mule as the stallion and win stakes races
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I don not think TDS is doing as well as your other examples. Cattlewash is cleaning up in Ontario but will that hold up in all of North America?
Yes, I think it will. His fee will go up next year and book will be closed.
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Tall Dark Stranger’s Shadow: How One Stallion’s Early Record Risks Setting Standardbred Pacing Back
The hype cycle vs. the scorecard
Tall Dark Stranger (Bettor’s Delight—Precocious Beauty) was an electric racehorse and a 2020 U.S. Horse of the Year. No one disputes that. But the only measure that matters to the breed is what his foals do on the track and in the breeding shed. After the early crops hit the races, the scoreboard hasn’t matched the sales-ring hype: first American crop yearlings averaged over $80,000, with 27 selling for six figures, yet the initial waves of 2-year-old performers delivered only scattered highlights and few breakout headliners relative to the hype and the mare quality he saw. Harnesslink
In Australasia, where his oldest are just turning two, the returns have been similarly modest so far—handfuls of winners, not a takeover. Early snapshots aren’t destiny, but they matter when a stallion was priced and promoted as a generational sire. Empire Stallions
Even in North America, where the book sizes and mare quality were premium from the jump, the narrative has required careful marketing spin. A 2024 Kentucky Sire Stakes win by a filly like KARMA showed he can get a quality horse—but one or two bright spots don’t offset a broader pattern of ordinary results from extraordinary opportunities. Empire Stallions
The opportunity cost of blue-chip mares
The breed advances when the very best broodmares are mated to sires that lift the average—producing durable, fast, and sound stock that stand up to stakes calendars and long campaigns. Tall Dark Stranger received that privilege. He bred large books of elite mares in 2021–2023, producing big foal crops and eye-popping yearling averages. When that pipeline yields “nice” horses instead of consistently superior ones, the loss isn’t just financial—it’s genetic opportunity cost: those same mares could have gone to stallions with stronger strike rates for top-end performers. Harnesslink+1
The “blue-blood loser filly” problem
Here’s the uncomfortable downstream effect: fashion drives matings. Fillies by hot, high-priced sires out of royal mares are valuable on pedigree alone. If many of those fillies underperform on the track, they still head to the broodmare band on name recognition and family—dragging their modest athletic merit into the next generation. That’s how mediocrity compounds:
1. Pedigree momentum keeps them in demand despite race records.
2. Breeding inertia means they’ll be bred early and often.
3. Selection bias preserves the wrong traits (speed flashes without durability; pedigree over constitution).
Multiply that by a few hundred mares across two or three crops and you’ve redirected thousands of matings over a decade toward average instead of excellent.
Early stats: less than the marketing promised
Public databases and farm blurbs tell part of the story. Hanover’s own page pitched Tall Dark Stranger as a top-10 three-year-old pacing sire by progeny earnings in 2025 as of June 11, which sounds impressive until you benchmark against expectations for a horse that got elite mares and elite numbers. Being “top-10” isn’t the point when you were sold as era-defining. The question is conversion rate: how many stakes horses, how many six-figure earners, how many true open-class prospects relative to book size and mare quality? (Those ratios—more than raw dollars—separate breed-shapers from passengers.) hanoverpa.com
Broader USTA sire tables show he’s competitive in money lists, but not running away from contemporaries who had lower books or less gilded opportunities. That gap between promise and production is exactly what “sets the breed back”: we paid the genetic premium and didn’t collect the genetic dividend. ustrotting.com+1
Why this matters for the next 10–15 years
• Genetic bottlenecking. When one fashion sire hoovers up a big share of the best mares, the whole crop tilts toward his genotype. If his average runner is merely good, you’ve just flattened a generation’s ceiling.
• Soundness and longevity. The breed needs horses that can race hard at two and still matter at five. If the typical foal isn’t robust (or if the sire’s get skew toward flash-in-the-pan 2-year-old speed without staying power), stakes calendars become more attritional, not more competitive.
• Economics of false signals. Sales chase pedigrees. Trainers and owners chase sale-ring signals. If the signal is wrong (high price ≠ high performance), capital is misallocated, good mares get “parked” into mediocre outcomes, and programs misread what’s actually improving the athlete.
The uncomfortable fix: change breeder behavior
If you want to stop a slide before it starts, you don’t wait five crops. You correct course now:
1. Mate on performance, not logo. Audit each mare’s nick outcomes and biomechanical fit with multiple sires—not just the fashionable one. Put performance ratios (stakes winners per starters; $100k earners per live foal) ahead of median yearling price.
2. Penalize underperformance quickly. If a stallion’s first two racing crops underdeliver versus book quality, farms and syndicates should cut the fee, reduce the book, and allow market share to return to sires with better conversion.
3. Protect the broodmare band. Don’t automatically retire underachieving fillies by brand-name sires into the broodmare pool at premium fees. Make them earn the right via durability and class, or cull ruthlessly.
4. Diversify the gene pool. Use more outcross and proven “value” sires with high strike rates per opportunity. The breed gets better when more stallions get real shots and only the best rise.
“But he has winners…” — separating signal from noise
Every fashionable stallion will have winners and a few nice stakes horses. The question is relative to opportunity. Tall Dark Stranger’s supporters can point to stakes wins (e.g., KYSS) and money lists that keep him visible. That’s not the standard he was sold against. With the mare base and numbers he enjoyed, a true breed-lifter would be dominating the top end, not just holding a place on aggregate earnings lists. The early Australasian data—limited winners from a manageable starter pool—reinforces the theme: pleasant results, not paradigm-shifting. Empire Stallions+1
The long tail: how a single stallion can delay progress
Because he touched so many of the best mares in a short window, his genetic “echo” will ring through yearling sales and broodmare bands for a decade. If the echo is average, you’ve muted the breed’s progress: slower stakes miles at the margins, fewer iron horses, fewer true open performers—while pedigrees still look glossy on paper. That’s the definition of setting the breed back: using up the premium ingredients without elevating the recipe.
This an intelligent, lucid, well thought out post... no one cares.
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Yes, I think it will. His fee will go up next year and book will be closed.
The Cattlewash babies are racing other Cattlewash babies and some Bulldog babies. What happens when they have to race the grand circuit?
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The Cattlewash babies are racing other Cattlewash babies and some Bulldog babies. What happens when they have to race the grand circuit?
Well, and Bettors Delight is up there, though he is not having the best year himself.
Beau Jangles gives the impression he can compete on the Grand Circuit, but frankly I'm not sure it matters. Cattlewash has proven he can dominate the provincial program, and they're probably only going to get better now as he will get better mares based on his performance as a sire up there.
I share Lance's opinion he will close early at a higher stud fee next year.