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General Category => Thoroughbred Racing => Topic started by: Trigger on July 31, 2025, 12:47:48 AM
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If you read yesterday's SPA thread, check the videos for yourself you will see there is some bull shitty shit going on there. Catching and capitalizing, but it reinforces with all the $money$ being bet there the insiders are not worried about missing their opportunities to take down millions in wagering and even forgo some purses in doing so.
The weather looks awesome, high 60's, high humidity, but looks clear of rain, but again be on alert that can change, for the time being FAST DIRT, FIRM TURF anticipated.
I'm only wagering on only one race there today, the 9th Race (5:44 pm), the John Morrissey Stakes, $150k non graded 7f dirt race.
13 horses, this is a tough one.
My attention is centered around one horse, #5, The Wine Steward. A multiple graded stakes placer, a multiple un-graded stakes winner. Never uses lasix and is not allowed here too. 6-1 ml odds is a gift and subject to change. This 4yo colt is 1/2 at the SPA, I'll forgive him not winning the Belmont Stakes against Dornoch lol. They toss Saez and J Ortiz (also in the race with lesser) and go with Prat. The horse has never raced at 7f but I truly believe his connections are confident this and up to a mile might be his best placement.
I've got 302 beans (pre-scratches) in bets starting with 50wp #5. Others to key with him in exotics (ex, tri, sup) - 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13. Likely an all in a small ex, and in back and forth dds for the 8th and 9th races with alls.
Good Luck! ;D
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I ended up going $392.
I additionally doubled up with the #5 on top of the tris and sups, and added $100 show as well on the #5. I'm not a show bettor, however when betting above my average it works 3 ways for and only one against. Mitigates a loss of wp, pays 1,2,3 obviously, there is going to be a heavy favorite in the 9 and if a bad day some extra to show payout potential for the #5 - against the extra 100.
Saez as mentioned earlier was the number one previous jockey option for the #5, the fact that his horse scratched is a very good sign if the decision was based on insider knowledge to scratch that Saez #10 horse.
Here are the wagers:
DBL - Saratoga - R8 - $8
Race 8: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9
Race 9: 5
Bets ( 8 ) Amount: $1 Total: $8
Placed At: 07-31-2025 10:34 AM
DBL - Saratoga - R9 - $8
Race 9: 5
Race 10: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 10, 12, 13
Bets ( 8 ) Amount: $1 Total: $8
Placed At: 07-31-2025 10:35 AM
WP - Saratoga - R9 - $100
1st: 5
Bets (2) Amount: $50 Total: $100
Placed At: 07-31-2025 10:36 AM
EX - Saratoga - R9 - $22
Exacta Key Box
1st: 5
2nd: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13
Bets (22) Amount: $1 Total: $22
Placed At: 07-31-2025 10:36 AM
EX - Saratoga - R9 - $28
Exacta Key Box
1st: 5
2nd: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
Bets (14) Amount: $2 Total: $28
Placed At: 07-31-2025 10:37 AM
TRI - Saratoga - R9 - $21
1st: 5
2nd: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
3rd: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
Bets (42) Amount: $0.50 Total: $21
Placed At: 07-31-2025 10:38 AM
TRI - Saratoga - R9 - $21
1st: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
2nd: 5
3rd: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
Bets (42) Amount: $0.50 Total: $21
Placed At: 07-31-2025 10:39 AM
SPR - Saratoga - R9 - $21
1st: 5
2nd: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
3rd: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
4th: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
Bets (210) Amount: $0.10 Total: $21
Placed At: 07-31-2025 10:39 AM
SPR - Saratoga - R9 - $21
1st: 5
2nd: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
3rd: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
4th: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
Bets (210) Amount: $0.10 Total: $21
Placed At: 07-31-2025 10:40 AM
SPR - Saratoga - R9 - $21
1st: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
2nd: 5
3rd: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
4th: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
Bets (210) Amount: $0.10 Total: $21
Placed At: 07-31-2025 10:40 AM
TRI - Saratoga - R9 - $21
1st: 5
2nd: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
3rd: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
Bets (42) Amount: $0.50 Total: $21
Placed At: 07-31-2025 10:43 AM
SHW - Saratoga - R9 - $100
1st: 5
Bets (1) Amount: $100 Total: $100
Placed At: 07-31-2025 10:44 AM
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*****According to 2 different weather sources, Accuweather and Weather.com it is currently raining at the SPA, a 1/2" of rain is expected during the day. The radar (below) shows predicatively consistent rain with some possible breaks between 3p-5p. My #5 is no mudder, however I'm leaving all wagers alone, and if his connections are concerned they can always scratch.*****
https://weather.com/weather/radar/interactive/l/4ba10d6d9c4e4298b963b064ecca4c7080ea71e8d89423f711d2c2e36d272bf2
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Spa Pick 5 beginning in race 3:
ALL/4/ALL/9/ALL.. only 60 bucks
Let's catch a few prices and beat the 1 in race 5
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Spa Pick 5 beginning in race 3:
ALL/4/ALL/9/ALL.. only 60 bucks
Let's catch a few prices and beat the 1 in race 5
$20 bux on the 9 at 2-1 . 5/2 and you even up. Those are the type strategies I'm toying with. Next time bro!
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Two big shots because I'm sick of losing lol
Spa Pick 5 starting in race 6..
9/1,8,10,11/1,4/2,5,9,11,12,13/2,4,10,12,13
$120 bucks
Indiana Pick 5 starting in race 4..
8/ 1 2,10,12,13/3,7,8/2,4,6,13/1,9
$60 beans
Yes i know I posted late but I am trying to work to ngc3
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If 4 wins race 4 minimum payout was $800 bucks from the pick 5 at the spa starting in race 3.. but if if's and buts we're candy and nuts we'd all have a Merry Christmas. On a bright note both singles got through in the 1st leg of both tickets ;D
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Two big shots because I'm sick of losing lol
Spa Pick 5 starting in race 6..
9/1,8,10,11/1,4/2,5,9,11,12,13/2,4,10,12,13
$120 bucks
Indiana Pick 5 starting in race 4..
8/ 1 2,10,12,13/3,7,8/2,4,6,13/1,9
$60 beans
Yes i know I posted late but I am trying to work to ngc3
So far so good at both!!!! tmbz1
Yeh, singling the first is balls to the wall excitement!
Where you pull some of these tracks out of your ass, I always have to brace myself....Charles Town...Indiana... Finger Lakes...! ;D
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Ind 6th - All aboard the Fucking 8 Train!
JT, you hit this p5, next time your in Shelbyville, Indiana buy Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. a drink!
What a race! ;D
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So far so good at both!!!! tmbz1
Yeh, singling the first is balls to the wall excitement!
Where you pull some of these tracks out of your ass, I always have to brace myself....Charles Town...Indiana... Finger Lakes...! ;D
I like to single whenever possible in leg 1.. if ya lose it's like ripping off the band-aid. Indiana is a tough track, lots of maidens there.
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I like to single whenever possible in leg 1.. if ya lose it's like ripping off the band-aid. Indiana is a tough track, lots of maidens there.
I'm livid this Marcelo another race to the wire, damn!
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Ind 6th - All aboard the Fucking 8 Train!
JT, you hit this p5, next time your in Shelbyville, Indiana buy Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. a drink!
What a race! ;D
No drink..he couldn't get the 13 there in leg 4.. my horses got 2nd,3rd and 4th to a 29-1 shot lol
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No drink..he couldn't get the 13 there in leg 4.. my horses got 2nd,3rd and 4th to a 29-1 shot lol
You and me both, another race to the wire.
The 50 pl, 100 sh, 1 ex was enough to pull a 100+ profit.
Considering the horse is not a mudder, did pretty damn good lol! ;D
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No 1A 7 8 fuck em!
Go JT!!!
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You and me both, another race to the wire.
The 50 pl, 100 sh, 1 ex was enough to pull a 100+ profit.
Considering the horse is not a mudder, did pretty damn good lol! ;D
That was a tough beat for ya trigger, glad you still made a few bucks.. of course the 9 won the last leg in Indiana so 4 out of 5 what's that pay?
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No 1A 7 8 fuck em!
Go JT!!!
Of course 1a won with Franco.. the same jockey who fucked me on the 4 with my first pick 5 which paid 2 grand. That was brutal.. 5 horses deep in an eight horse race and lose. They were all good will pays to.
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Of course 1a won with Franco.. the same jockey who fucked me on the 4 with my first pick 5 which paid 2 grand. That was brutal.. 5 horses deep in an eight horse race and lose. They were all good will pays to.
I'm feeling for ya bro, the SPA was tough, both 4/5, brutal.
I think there is a strategy to the SPA though especially when all your payouts are over a grand, just put 50 on the other 3 horses, worst case you lose and the win bet covers and makes some profit, best scenario you lose 150 insurance.
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I'm feeling for ya bro, the SPA was tough, both 4/5, brutal.
I think there is a strategy to the SPA though especially when all your payouts are over a grand, just put 50 on the other 3 horses, worst case you lose and the win bet covers and makes some profit, best scenario you lose 150 insurance.
No I should have just thrown an extra 20 bucks on the ticket to include the 1A, he was the one I feared the most. When I put the ticket together I was trying to decide between 1 and 2. I chose poorly lol. By not putting an extra 20 on it cost me $1700. Sometimes I'm not to bright. To many paint fumes I guess
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No I should have just thrown an extra 20 bucks on the ticket to include the 1A, he was the one I feared the most. When I put the ticket together I was trying to decide between 1 and 2. I chose poorly lol. By not putting an extra 20 on it cost me $1700. Sometimes I'm not to bright. To many paint fumes I guess
That's a good point budget parameters.
We've seen situations where you win and can lose.
Picking winners is half the winning race, betting strategies is the other half.
The fact that you rewind back shows how intelligent and mature enough to learn form the investment.
You're very smart, very talented and super intuitive...you have stamina too, it's taking me hours to try to learn the story of those in a race that I have no previous knowledge of.
Your fearless too and at the same time conservative, very balanced, to be doing what your doing while distracted and see the results you do is extraordinary!
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That's a good point budget parameters.
We've seen situations where you win and can lose.
Picking winners is half the winning race, betting strategies is the other half.
The fact that you rewind back shows how intelligent and mature enough to learn form the investment.
You're very smart, very talented and super intuitive...you have stamina too, it's taking me hours to try to learn the story of those in a race that I have no previous knowledge of.
Your fearless too and at the same time conservative, very balanced, to be doing what your doing while distracted and see the results you do is extraordinary!
Thanks for the kind words. I study a few cards with my morning coffee before leaving for work. I put my bets in once the changes come in. I can only post on here on during breaks, that's why sometimes I post after leg 1 or 2 is done and don't have time to post the exotics.
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Thanks for the kind words. I study a few cards with my morning coffee before leaving for work. I put my bets in once the changes come in. I can only post on here on during breaks, that's why sometimes I post after leg 1 or 2 is done and don't have time to post the exotics.
tmbz1
If you use the last month as a start to gauge I'd have to say you're doing excellent, as these type wager are as high risk as it gets, so failure rates that go along with it are typically higher than average for everyone, and lower on the success rate, yet you've overcame it.
One thing that is a huge benefit, if you're not already, do an ROI. With some ADW's it's built in to your account. If not do your own, weekly is great. This way you can not only reflect back on if the type wagers have worked but even specifically the tracks themselves. You can gauge if certain elements of life / work itself helped or hindered during that time period.
The stuff we're talking about is universal it just reminds and polishes us to be in the + category. You'd never hear me telling someone why didn't you bet this horse or why not bet this other, and I tease about po-dunk tracks but I'd never say do / don't do it!