Talk Dark Stranger will Destroy the Breed

[Chips N Salsa]

Tall Dark Stranger’s Shadow: How One Stallion’s Early Record Risks Setting Standardbred Pacing Back

The hype cycle vs. the scorecard

Tall Dark Stranger (Bettor’s Delight—Precocious Beauty) was an electric racehorse and a 2020 U.S. Horse of the Year. No one disputes that. But the only measure that matters to the breed is what his foals do on the track and in the breeding shed. After the early crops hit the races, the scoreboard hasn’t matched the sales-ring hype: first American crop yearlings averaged over $80,000, with 27 selling for six figures, yet the initial waves of 2-year-old performers delivered only scattered highlights and few breakout headliners relative to the hype and the mare quality he saw. Harnesslink

In Australasia, where his oldest are just turning two, the returns have been similarly modest so far—handfuls of winners, not a takeover. Early snapshots aren’t destiny, but they matter when a stallion was priced and promoted as a generational sire. Empire Stallions

Even in North America, where the book sizes and mare quality were premium from the jump, the narrative has required careful marketing spin. A 2024 Kentucky Sire Stakes win by a filly like KARMA showed he can get a quality horse—but one or two bright spots don’t offset a broader pattern of ordinary results from extraordinary opportunities. Empire Stallions

The opportunity cost of blue-chip mares

The breed advances when the very best broodmares are mated to sires that lift the average—producing durable, fast, and sound stock that stand up to stakes calendars and long campaigns. Tall Dark Stranger received that privilege. He bred large books of elite mares in 2021–2023, producing big foal crops and eye-popping yearling averages. When that pipeline yields “nice” horses instead of consistently superior ones, the loss isn’t just financial—it’s genetic opportunity cost: those same mares could have gone to stallions with stronger strike rates for top-end performers. Harnesslink+1

The “blue-blood loser filly” problem

Here’s the uncomfortable downstream effect: fashion drives matings. Fillies by hot, high-priced sires out of royal mares are valuable on pedigree alone. If many of those fillies underperform on the track, they still head to the broodmare band on name recognition and family—dragging their modest athletic merit into the next generation. That’s how mediocrity compounds:
1.   Pedigree momentum keeps them in demand despite race records.
2.   Breeding inertia means they’ll be bred early and often.
3.   Selection bias preserves the wrong traits (speed flashes without durability; pedigree over constitution).
Multiply that by a few hundred mares across two or three crops and you’ve redirected thousands of matings over a decade toward average instead of excellent.

Early stats: less than the marketing promised

Public databases and farm blurbs tell part of the story. Hanover’s own page pitched Tall Dark Stranger as a top-10 three-year-old pacing sire by progeny earnings in 2025 as of June 11, which sounds impressive until you benchmark against expectations for a horse that got elite mares and elite numbers. Being “top-10” isn’t the point when you were sold as era-defining. The question is conversion rate: how many stakes horses, how many six-figure earners, how many true open-class prospects relative to book size and mare quality? (Those ratios—more than raw dollars—separate breed-shapers from passengers.) hanoverpa.com

Broader USTA sire tables show he’s competitive in money lists, but not running away from contemporaries who had lower books or less gilded opportunities. That gap between promise and production is exactly what “sets the breed back”: we paid the genetic premium and didn’t collect the genetic dividend. ustrotting.com+1

Why this matters for the next 10–15 years

•   Genetic bottlenecking. When one fashion sire hoovers up a big share of the best mares, the whole crop tilts toward his genotype. If his average runner is merely good, you’ve just flattened a generation’s ceiling.
•   Soundness and longevity. The breed needs horses that can race hard at two and still matter at five. If the typical foal isn’t robust (or if the sire’s get skew toward flash-in-the-pan 2-year-old speed without staying power), stakes calendars become more attritional, not more competitive.
•   Economics of false signals. Sales chase pedigrees. Trainers and owners chase sale-ring signals. If the signal is wrong (high price ≠ high performance), capital is misallocated, good mares get “parked” into mediocre outcomes, and programs misread what’s actually improving the athlete.

The uncomfortable fix: change breeder behavior

If you want to stop a slide before it starts, you don’t wait five crops. You correct course now:
1.   Mate on performance, not logo. Audit each mare’s nick outcomes and biomechanical fit with multiple sires—not just the fashionable one. Put performance ratios (stakes winners per starters; $100k earners per live foal) ahead of median yearling price.
2.   Penalize underperformance quickly. If a stallion’s first two racing crops underdeliver versus book quality, farms and syndicates should cut the fee, reduce the book, and allow market share to return to sires with better conversion.
3.   Protect the broodmare band. Don’t automatically retire underachieving fillies by brand-name sires into the broodmare pool at premium fees. Make them earn the right via durability and class, or cull ruthlessly.
4.   Diversify the gene pool. Use more outcross and proven “value” sires with high strike rates per opportunity. The breed gets better when more stallions get real shots and only the best rise.

“But he has winners…” — separating signal from noise

Every fashionable stallion will have winners and a few nice stakes horses. The question is relative to opportunity. Tall Dark Stranger’s supporters can point to stakes wins (e.g., KYSS) and money lists that keep him visible. That’s not the standard he was sold against. With the mare base and numbers he enjoyed, a true breed-lifter would be dominating the top end, not just holding a place on aggregate earnings lists. The early Australasian data—limited winners from a manageable starter pool—reinforces the theme: pleasant results, not paradigm-shifting. Empire Stallions+1

The long tail: how a single stallion can delay progress

Because he touched so many of the best mares in a short window, his genetic “echo” will ring through yearling sales and broodmare bands for a decade. If the echo is average, you’ve muted the breed’s progress: slower stakes miles at the margins, fewer iron horses, fewer true open performers—while pedigrees still look glossy on paper. That’s the definition of setting the breed back: using up the premium ingredients without elevating the recipe.

[The Answer]

Could be a great broodmare sire. Many duds have been.

[captain morgan]

What a fantastic read. Thank you for posting that

[Chips N Salsa]

Could be a great broodmare sire. Many duds have been.

Name one?

[Chessington]

Excellent observation. Are you an owner, breeder , agent or trainer?

[MIKE CAMPBELL]

Chips N Salsa can't get a license ANYWHERE so he bashes whatever and whomever he can. Why don't you come clean and admit who you are and what you did asshole?

[Kenny]

Tall Dark Stranger (Bettor’s Delight—Precocious Beauty) was an electric racehorse and a 2020 U.S. Horse of the Year. No one disputes that.

I dispute this statement. Party Girl Hill had a better record AND beat the boy. Tall Dark Stranger did nothing to match that. It was the antiquated thinking of the harness arcing establishment that did not make Party Girl Hill the horse of the year.

[MIKE CAMPBELL]

I dispute this statement. Party Girl Hill had a better record AND beat the boy. Tall Dark Stranger did nothing to match that. It was the antiquated thinking of the harness arcing establishment that did not make Party Girl Hill the horse of the year.

"TDS did nothing to match that"  Yeah, winning the Meadowlands Pace, The NA Cup and The Cane is nothing 

[The Answer]

Name one?

Pine Chip

[Putonashow]

This post is way far fetched. He will never ruin the breed and while he hasn't set the world on fire yet he could still produce a few champs.  Time will tell, what isn't far fetched is the fact that Uber Sire Bettors Delight has never had an extender that was great in the breeding shed.  This was his last chance.

[JIDGE]

One sire will not destroy the breed. If that were the case Ralph Hanover or Deweycheatumnhowe would have accomplished that years ago. No TDS has not taken the torch from Bettor's Delight, but he is proving to be a competent sire -- much better than any other son of Bettor's Delight -- Bettor's Wish's success still in question.
Perhaps a better topic would be why hasn't Bettor's Delight delivered a successful sire comparable to his own accomplishments? With ten less years Somebeachsomewher e, even in death, keeps delivering sire after sire -- his latest appears to be Cattlewash.

[The Answer]

This post is way far fetched. He will never ruin the breed and while he hasn't set the world on fire yet he could still produce a few champs.  Time will tell, what isn't far fetched is the fact that Uber Sire Bettors Delight has never had an extender that was great in the breeding shed.  This was his last chance.

Nijinsky will be standing in NY next year. As told by The Answer weeks ago he is injured and done racing.

[MIKE CAMPBELL]

This post is way far fetched. He will never ruin the breed and while he hasn't set the world on fire yet he could still produce a few champs.  Time will tell, what isn't far fetched is the fact that Uber Sire Bettors Delight has never had an extender that was great in the breeding shed.  This was his last chance.

Subject was started by a felon who got thrown out of Takter's barn and now bashes anything that Takter is or was a part of.

[Stan durbread]

Most of Takters Super Star horses have been duds in the breeding shed. He hasn’t destroyed the breed yet and neither did Bill Robinson

[Lance]

Most of Takters Super Star horses have been duds in the breeding shed. He hasn’t destroyed the breed yet and neither did Bill Robinson

Some of Robinson’s were great sires. Art Major was very good.  But the two most influential were Mach Three for obvious reasons and I think Cams Card  Shark who will change the to breed. Cams Card Shark - Cams Seeker - Goo Goo Ga Ga - Captain Corey.