CONFEDERATE goes to $400,000 KY Sire Stake Final -- It's My Show -- a no show

[JIDGE]

RACE 8 - The Red Mile - KY - September 17, 2023
Conditions: KENTUCKY SIRES STAKE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES FINAL 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS
Gait: PacePurse: 400,000Class: KYSSFINALDistance: 1 MilePost Time: 3:13 PM
 
PP    Horse   Med   2023 North America YTD    Driver    Trainer   ML   Claim
    Equip   Sts    W    P    S    Time    Earnings         Stable   Odds   Price
1    A Cool Moment
 3, Captaintreacherou s-
 Cool Treasure       13     5     3     1     1:50.2S     $89200     Joey Putnam    Joe Putnam       

2    Command
 3, Captaintreacherou s-
 Fable       11     5     3     1     1:50.0F     $128475     Todd McCarthy    Brett Pelling       

3    Larceny
 3, Always B Miki-
 Someomensomewhere       11     0     3     2     -     $56846     Brian Sears    Jennifer Bongiorno       

4    Camsolution
 3, Camgrandest-Ohmybelle       14     4     0     6     1:51.3M     $56894     Randal Jerrell    Randal Jerrell       

5    Confederate
 3, Sweet Lou-Geothermal       8     7     1     0     1:46.1M     $877929     Tim Tetrick    Brett Pelling       

6    Kopi Luwak
 3, Stay Hungry-
 Auniqueaquistion       10     2     0     0     1:49.1M     $66250     Andrew McCarthy    Tony Alagna       

7    For Once Inmy Life
 3, Downbytheseaside-
 Flyme To The Moon       12     4     2     1     1:50.1F     $121800     Andrew McCarthy    Noel Daley



I'm assuming It's My Show is headed to the Jug along with Cannibal and perhaps Seven Colors.

[HarnessFan1981]

https://x.com/DRFHarness/status/1702010097805787478?s=20

[Fuguzzi]

 

RACE 8 - The Red Mile - KY - September 17, 2023
Conditions: KENTUCKY SIRES STAKE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES FINAL 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS
Gait: PacePurse: 400,000Class: KYSSFINALDistance: 1 MilePost Time: 3:13 PM
 
PP    Horse   Med   2023 North America YTD    Driver    Trainer   ML   Claim
    Equip   Sts    W    P    S    Time    Earnings         Stable   Odds   Price
1    A Cool Moment
 3, Captaintreacherou s-
 Cool Treasure       13     5     3     1     1:50.2S     $89200     Joey Putnam    Joe Putnam       

2    Command
 3, Captaintreacherou s-
 Fable       11     5     3     1     1:50.0F     $128475     Todd McCarthy    Brett Pelling       

3    Larceny
 3, Always B Miki-
 Someomensomewhere       11     0     3     2     -     $56846     Brian Sears    Jennifer Bongiorno       

4    Camsolution
 3, Camgrandest-Ohmybelle       14     4     0     6     1:51.3M     $56894     Randal Jerrell    Randal Jerrell       

5    Confederate
 3, Sweet Lou-Geothermal       8     7     1     0     1:46.1M     $877929     Tim Tetrick    Brett Pelling       

6    Kopi Luwak
 3, Stay Hungry-
 Auniqueaquistion       10     2     0     0     1:49.1M     $66250     Andrew McCarthy    Tony Alagna       

7    For Once Inmy Life
 3, Downbytheseaside-
 Flyme To The Moon       12     4     2     1     1:50.1F     $121800     Andrew McCarthy    Noel Daley



I'm assuming It's My Show is headed to the Jug along with Cannibal and perhaps Seven Colors.

  1-9

[Chips N Salsa]

Who called this?  I told you a month ago Confederate will not race in Jug.  Now I'm going to say there is less than 50/50 It's My Show races.  He might get drawn into the box BUT it will be 50/50 if he races.

[Fuguzzi]

I am glad you are proud of yourself. It's a damned shame for racing.

[Chips N Salsa]

I'm not proud.  I'm telling you what I knew.  Bowden will not expose Confederate on a half mile track because he has zero gate speed and would get smoked at Delaware.  He has to protect him every way he can now.  Doesn't race Cannibal in the KYSS so he can avoid accidentally beating Confederate.  Instead he uses a rat to whack stupid fractions to set up the race.  Bowden is no "hollier than though" horseman.  He spoiled arrogant trust fund baby playing with daddy's money.

[Fuguzzi]

Not gonna go 15 rounds with you on this one. We know you hate Confederate and his connections. I try not to argue with smartest guy in the room - all downside, no upside.

[wiseowl]

Why would you want to race a half mile track when you can race a mile track for$400.000 it is like a walk in the park and who is avoiding who here lets see who shows up in Oct. at the Red Mile.

[JIDGE]

I'm not proud.  I'm telling you what I knew.  Bowden will not expose Confederate on a half mile track because he has zero gate speed and would get smoked at Delaware.  He has to protect him every way he can now.  Doesn't race Cannibal in the KYSS so he can avoid accidentally beating Confederate.  Instead he uses a rat to whack stupid fractions to set up the race.  Bowden is no "hollier than though" horseman.  He spoiled arrogant trust fund baby playing with daddy's money.

The horse has gate speed -- he's grabbed the top easily in 26.4. I'm sure they feel there's no need to race two heats on a half -- which by the way may come from Pelling, since Bowden enjoys the money. I highly doubt they're afraid Cannibal will accidentally beat him. As far as Bowden -- I have no idea what his financial statement, etc. looks like, but he is having a helluva year with two of the best 3yr old pacers and possibly one of the best ever.  Remember the guy's been at it 15 plus years. We'll see who shows up later in the meet at the Red Mile and then Indiana.

[Brown jug]

this is the way it was always going to play out
its my show likely shows up at the jug with cannibal
why race for second money for $400k when you can try to win for $1m
when you have the luxury of having a few very good horses like diamond creek you can play this game

[shotgunner]

this is the way it was always going to play out
its my show likely shows up at the jug with cannibal
why race for second money for $400k when you can try to win for $1m
when you have the luxury of having a few very good horses like diamond creek you can play this game

100% This. Diamond Creek is sending Cannibal to Delaware because he NEEDS the win to get into a position where he can be a commercial stallion. Confederate is already there. Give Confederate the easier path with less money, and push and try to get another stallion people will pay 10k to breed to in Cannibal. They could win the Jug with Confederate and lose money in the long run by not giving Cannibal a chance to become big time.

[comeonman]

Other than the purse...which is fantastic...nobod y thinks winning the jug is important for a horses value for one as great as confederate...no trainer wants to race on a half wi t h star like that...

[JIDGE]

100% This. Diamond Creek is sending Cannibal to Delaware because he NEEDS the win to get into a position where he can be a commercial stallion. Confederate is already there. Give Confederate the easier path with less money, and push and try to get another stallion people will pay 10k to breed to in Cannibal. They could win the Jug with Confederate and lose money in the long run by not giving Cannibal a chance to become big time.

Agree with all -- except I don't think Cannibal needs to win the Jug to be commercial -- I think he's there already, but a good performance (more cash on his card) will certainly enhance his value. The question is what state will stand Confederate and what state will stand Cannibal.  And there's always the possibility they race Cannibal at 4 -- not so much with Confederate.

[JIDGE]

Other than the purse...which is fantastic...nobod y thinks winning the jug is important for a horses value for one as great as confederate...no trainer wants to race on a half wi t h star like that...

Very true. I'm guessing it's Pelling's call and he's right.

[Fuguzzi]

Great analysis here. Ultimately it is about the money and all of use, me too would play it the same way given the luxury. I wish them all well and good luck except IMS and her BS "trainer".