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Author Topic: Who is this kid Santangelo ??  (Read 1610 times)
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equityryder
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« on: June 19, 2017, 01:55:16 PM »

Look at his stats ! Kid either is a phenom or a chemist.
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JOHN FRANK
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« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2017, 01:58:14 PM »

Never heard of him. What TRACK.
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JOHN FRANK
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« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2017, 01:58:55 PM »

And don't say: CHILLAII.
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equityryder
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« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2017, 03:20:53 PM »

Mostly smaller tracks but also Churchill. Based out of Kentucky at a training center. Not afraid to ship one to better classify.
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Fatboy
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« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2017, 03:39:32 PM »

Mostly smaller tracks but also Churchill. Based out of Kentucky at a training center. Not afraid to ship one to better classify.

THE NEXT CALVIN?
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JOHN FRANK
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« Reply #5 on: June 19, 2017, 03:42:15 PM »

You gots me confused. You saying TRAINER.
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equityryder
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« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2017, 06:01:39 AM »

Trainer with 63 starts, 10 wins, 19 seconds, 7 thirds.  Kid is amazing !!!!
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equityryder
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« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2017, 09:45:05 PM »

Check out his entry on 7/15 at Ellis Park. Horse will be alive !!
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humphrey
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« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2017, 09:27:31 AM »

Historically, the best of the best trainers have win% in the range of 20-25%. ANY short time win percentage outside that range smacks of "outside influences," or statistical error.

You can bet on that.

Short term statistical sampling error can, and often does, skew a short term scutiny to give the unsuspecting observer a false positive on trainer competence.
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Ace Bonner: "If this world is all about winners, what's for the loser's?" Jr Bonner: "Well someone's got to hold the horses Ace."
humphrey
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« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2017, 09:44:02 AM »

Short term competence extrapolated to long term success is fraught with statistical error.

In his great book (The Drunkard's Walk:How Randomness Rules Our Lives) author Leonard Mlodinow shows a classic example starting on page 198. He charted the return on investment of mutual funds from 1991-95 from best to worst. He then charted the SAME funds in their SAME original order over a period from 1996-2000 and the charting resembled chaos: the competence of any ONE particular mutual fund over an EXTENDED period of time had little to no correlation to one specific time period.

LONG term competence then requires looking at LONG TERM data as sampling error can cause erroneous conclusions.

At Hastings one trainer who has lead the standings now for the past several years had been just a competent trainer (Troy Taylor). A wealthy patron (Glenn Todd) chose him to be the exclusive trainer for his high priced stock and BOOM, a good trainer now leads the standings. Did he get better or did his stock? There can be many reasons for statistical data.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2017, 09:46:33 AM by humphrey » Logged

Ace Bonner: "If this world is all about winners, what's for the loser's?" Jr Bonner: "Well someone's got to hold the horses Ace."
equityryder
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« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2017, 04:13:28 PM »

Humphrey, not speaking of long term success when this young mans career is just starting. Life time less than 90 starts.
Just happy to cash tickets as I believe he is flying under the radar.
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equityryder
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« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2017, 03:18:52 PM »

On a tear: won four of last 5 starts and one second. Wake up people, this kid deserves top owners with deep pockets !!
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equityryder
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2017, 12:06:17 PM »

Boy wonder is having a super year. 88 starters, 16 firsts, 23 seconds, and 8 thirds !
Won last start at Churchill Downs !!!
Why is he flying under the radar ?
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Fatboy
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2017, 01:52:43 PM »

Boy wonder is having a super year. 88 starters, 16 firsts, 23 seconds, and 8 thirds !
Won last start at Churchill Downs !!!
Why is he flying under the radar ?

Proper classification with cheaper stock could be a reason? Nobodys watching
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equityryder
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« Reply #14 on: December 02, 2017, 08:34:42 AM »

I guess no one is watching but he is on a roll. Yesterday at Turfway a win and a good 3rd. These horses were not chalk !!
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