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General Category => Thoroughbred Racing => Topic started by: Calhoun on January 07, 2026, 12:15:27 PM

Title: % Winning Favorites
Post by: Calhoun on January 07, 2026, 12:15:27 PM
* Each Year 30,500 - 31,500 races *

All Favorites     Favorites <6/5
2021: 37.1%    50.9%
2022: 38.1       50.3
2023: 38.4       49.6
2024: 39.0       51.5
2025: 39.5       52.4

Conclusions:
1. Handicappers, including CAWs, are better
2. Races are less competitive
3. The product is garbage.

Thanks to Craig Milkowski. He's a good follow on X/Twitter
Title: Re: % Winning Favorites
Post by: Trigger on January 07, 2026, 12:34:02 PM
Good stuff!

With the CAWs, damn, so many of those favs weren't until the last second of wagering and reflected only after the race started.

I need 5 hours to handicap a race, at least  ngc3
Title: Re: % Winning Favorites
Post by: Calhoun on January 07, 2026, 01:11:22 PM
What's kind of interesting is that it's reasonable to believe CAWs don't have any kind of "minimum " win payoff. 

Title: Re: % Winning Favorites
Post by: Papillon on January 07, 2026, 08:01:07 PM
* Each Year 30,500 - 31,500 races *

All Favorites     Favorites <6/5
2021: 37.1%    50.9%
2022: 38.1       50.3
2023: 38.4       49.6
2024: 39.0       51.5
2025: 39.5       52.4

Conclusions:
1. Handicappers, including CAWs, are better
2. Races are less competitive
3. The product is garbage.

Thanks to Craig Milkowski. He's a good follow on X/Twitter

they are allowed to bet after the bell later than in previous years

the open window is open longer
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