HORSEPLOP.COM
General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: Winners Win on March 01, 2025, 11:05:57 PM
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Are you happy sucking a long for 3rds if its profitable or would you rather have your horse put in a spot to win if he is good enough?
I would rather have him in play rather than racing for third. If best he can get is third, I need to upgrade my horse or move him to a softer spot.
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It takes four third place checks to almost equal one win----and that's four more races; four more races out of the horse, and more maintenance, overhead, expenses, whatever you want to call it. While it's purely hypothetical, in overnight races, if you are in the right race, then you should be favorite (second choice, maybe third choice). Thus, you should be looking to win.
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agreed
the only way to make money is with wins
the thirds fourths help out but only when being added to the wins
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If mine aren't first or second you're not making money. Drop them down or move them along
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Most owners are in the game for the wins. I know a lot of fools on here think owning horses is an investment. It is not it is a hobby no different than owning a boat or a golf course membership. Being heavily involved in the sport for the last 40 years I can assure you the owners that getting to make money very rarely last for more than 5 years
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If I had a nw1 or nw2 and he was competitive he's never winning until I have no choice. They go for good money and race almost every week!
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The $8k claiming non-winners of a ham sandwich class at Western Fair is the worst of the worst horses in Ontario.
Purse is $5200 Condition was for nw $2500l5
Race secretary now allows nw 2races in 2024/25 in.
If I enter under the new condition, I'm finishing 2nd every week for the remainder of the year.
$1300/week for five weeks is $6500
A win every five weeks is $2600
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The $8k claiming non-winners of a ham sandwich class at Western Fair is the worst of the worst horses in Ontario.
Purse is $5200 Condition was for nw $2500l5
Race secretary now allows nw 2races in 2024/25 in.
If I enter under the new condition, I'm finishing 2nd every week for the remainder of the year.
$1300/week for five weeks is $6500
A win every five weeks is $2600
That's good management as is having a well educated nw1 or nw2 before they have to graduate
Few of today's drivers can skillfully do so without being very obvious
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Out here you have to be 1 or 2nd consistently to make money . 3rds do not break you even . Your losing money big time 4th - whatever
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If I had a nw1 or nw2 and he was competitive he's never winning until I have no choice. They go for good money and race almost every week!
Hopefully none of the "plop" gamblers read this one!
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Too many variables that can play out against your horse every week to be a consistent money making winner. From bad draws to bad drives to health problems. You better have very deep pockets to stay in this game very long.
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If I had a nw1 or nw2 and he was competitive he's never winning until I have no choice. They go for good money and race almost every week!
Here is an example of the problems with that plan.
A few years ago I raced two three year olds at several mid-west fairs. Each winning about half their starts.
First start a Maywood NW/PM I raced them both very conservative.
Same night two divisions.
One finished 2nd other one 3rd.
I went home thinking"Dam this will be a fun winter".
Next morning one had a bowed tenton the other a broken knee.
One never raced again.
The other not till the next year.
IMHO
Most times it is best to get all you can all the time!
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Here is an example of the problems with that plan.
A few years ago I raced two three year olds at several mid-west fairs. Each winning about half their starts.
First start a Maywood NW/PM I raced them both very conservative.
Same night two divisions.
One finished 2nd other one 3rd.
I went home thinking"Dam this will be a fun winter".
Next morning one had a bowed tenton the other a broken knee.
One never raced again.
The other not till the next year.
IMHO
Most times it is best to get all you can all the time!
Did the fair tracks you raced on have surfaces like Buffalo Raceway or were the surfaces as good at let's say Vernon Downs (supposedly the best surface) or a better pari-mutuel track?
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The other problem with 3rds and 4ths is your earnings last 4 starts don’t change much after each start. At least when you win, that large amount of $ drops off and allows you to drop down to a class you can win in.
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Example:
Buy nice 5 yo trotter for $50,000 and race him at YR (assuming he has shown comfort on a 1/2 mile track). Just let the horse perform as he has better and lesser form periods, but races over a range of NW7500 through NW20000. Assuming he is just "average" for that grouping and races 32 times and gets 4 wins, 4 seconds, 4 thirds etc....4 last. The "average" purse in that range where he is highly competitive is $17,000 over the season and thus he puts $68,000 on his card for the year. That, less driver, trainer, groom tips is a shade under $60,000 net. Assuming, again, he is "average horse", the bills for training, vet, shoe etc. are around $4,000/month (or $48,000 in a year.) Since you are racing at YR and he/she is older horse, no stakes fees, no major shipping fees (if in one of the stables that is still based there). That gives you a return of $12,000 on your $50,000 investment and he is one year older.
Again, I am speaking "averages" and clearly many at YR do better (concentrated in 5 or 6 barns). However, unless you get "lucky" with a very young horse, "step up" an older horse or crash the windows this would be "hobby" money for most if you have 8 or 10 horses like this.
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A lot of people have drowned in a lake that AVERAGES 3 ft deep.
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A lot of people have drowned in a lake that AVERAGES 3 ft deep.
ngc3
Classic line. Same with median? LOL. Just kidding. Seriously, thanks for the laugh.
I read that, and the line that always pops into my head is....."On paper....." On paper, oh yeah, that works. LOL.
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Are you happy sucking a long for 3rds if its profitable or would you rather have your horse put in a spot to win if he is good enough?
I would rather have him in play rather than racing for third. If best he can get is third, I need to upgrade my horse or move him to a softer spot.
classification is the MAJOR KEY TO SUCCESS
if your trainer cant classify get a new trainer ..
overnights racing is very hard to break even
i prefer taking shots with 2 and 3 three olds
to each his own
good luck all
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Typically, outside of a stakes race-----and no, I am not looking to put one over, make a score at the windows, nor do I combine ownership/breeding as a business, with my wagering business-----unless there's an X factor, an anomaly, etc., in a claiming race, if I am not the favorite, or second choice, then I am in the wrong race. Same considerations, I would love to race against as many horses as I can who are racing for second or third. People who talk about milking conditions for economic/financial reasons, as opposed to educating a horse a bit (and you are not going to do that for 3 months, LOL), or the like, doesn't make any sense to me. Does it happen? Sure. But it's more the exception than the norm.
For the most part purses are down, all expenses are up, and for some strange reason, the price of horses has gone up. It's a very inefficient marketplace. Less people are making money in the business today than in the past. I think there are less owners today than in the past. And the overall quality of the "product" is certainly lower today than in the past. The entire sport and industry is very different.
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You may be the new most knowledgeable poster on the plop! Thank you for your insights! tmbz1
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Typically, outside of a stakes race-----and no, I am not looking to put one over, make a score at the windows, nor do I combine ownership/breeding as a business, with my wagering business-----unless there's an X factor, an anomaly, etc., in a claiming race, if I am not the favorite, or second choice, then I am in the wrong race. Same considerations, I would love to race against as many horses as I can who are racing for second or third. People who talk about milking conditions for economic/financial reasons, as opposed to educating a horse a bit (and you are not going to do that for 3 months, LOL), or the like, doesn't make any sense to me. Does it happen? Sure. But it's more the exception than the norm.
For the most part purses are down, all expenses are up, and for some strange reason, the price of horses has gone up. It's a very inefficient marketplace. Less people are making money in the business today than in the past. I think there are less owners today than in the past. And the overall quality of the "product" is certainly lower today than in the past. The entire sport and industry is very different.
Purses are down??? You obviously are a newbie.
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3rd every race is ok and better than most