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General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: HorseplayerB on January 08, 2025, 09:48:48 AM

Title: Today's Carryovers
Post by: HorseplayerB on January 08, 2025, 09:48:48 AM
There is a decent Pick 5 Carryover at Western Fair today:

https://todayscarryovers.blogspot.com/
Title: Re: Today's Carryovers
Post by: firhill on January 08, 2025, 12:10:35 PM
Races cancelled tonight..snow.
Title: Re: Today's Carryovers
Post by: Brown jug on January 08, 2025, 02:13:49 PM
thanks for headsup
more time to study it for Friday
Title: Re: Today's Carryovers
Post by: HorseplayerB on January 16, 2025, 10:20:42 AM
Pick 4 carryovers at Dover and Meadows today.
https://todayscarryovers.blogspot.com/2025/01/todays-horse-racing-carryovers-for_16.html
Title: Re: Today's Carryovers
Post by: Scooteroo on January 16, 2025, 10:29:53 AM
Normally when Dover has a 1-day Pick 4 carryover, the total pool ends up between $15,000 and $20,000.
Title: Re: Today's Carryovers
Post by: Papillon on January 16, 2025, 11:47:10 AM
Carryovers are an optical illusion

it makes many believe there exists an advantage-or even worse-a "negative takeout"

in reality, carryovers catch the attention of CAWs, and their pool analyses will see all the combinations played before they bet-and then they bet accordingly

there is no advantage
Title: Re: Today's Carryovers
Post by: Scooteroo on January 16, 2025, 01:44:58 PM
I totally agree with you, but of course lapdog Jason Settlemoir feels the need to bring up the negative takeout when Meadowlands has a carryover.  The pools aren't that big at Dover, so I highly doubt they spend much time there.
Title: Re: Today's Carryovers
Post by: Superfecta on January 16, 2025, 04:47:58 PM
The pick 4 carryover earlier this afternoon at The Meadows was races 1-4. The morons at USTA put up the program for races 10-13.
Title: Re: Today's Carryovers
Post by: Kenny on January 16, 2025, 05:29:30 PM
Carryovers are an optical illusion

it makes many believe there exists an advantage-or even worse-a "negative takeout"

in reality, carryovers catch the attention of CAWs, and their pool analyses will see all the combinations played before they bet-and then they bet accordingly

there is no advantage

This information is not correct. All you need to do is calculate  the payouts using the money bet after the takeout in that race. The actual payouts will be higher by the amount of the carryover.

Quote
In the process of demonstrating the negative effect of takeout, I will be limiting my wagering to non-jackpot, carryover wagers only*. For example, one of my favorite wagers to make is the $1 Hi 5 when there is a substantial carryover. The resulting pool, with the carryover added, almost always results in a near 0% takeout situation

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/carryover-a-year-long-exploration-for-true-value/
Title: Re: Today's Carryovers
Post by: Papillon on January 19, 2025, 10:56:29 AM
This information is not correct. All you need to do is calculate  the payouts using the money bet after the takeout in that race. The actual payouts will be higher by the amount of the carryover.

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/carryover-a-year-long-exploration-for-true-value/

Elite sees all the combinations after everyone else has made their bets

you thinking you have an edge with a carryover is laughable ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
Title: Re: Today's Carryovers
Post by: Any1Left on January 19, 2025, 11:59:29 AM
Elite sees all the combinations after everyone else has made their bets

you thinking you have an edge with a carryover is laughable ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
it makes no sense what you are saying PAP and yet as crazy as it sounds i have to agree with you and that might make no sense to many but it does to me and you,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,i do not know of a person who is doing super well on carryovers these days yet im sick and still overplay them,,,,,,
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