HORSEPLOP.COM
General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: Scooteroo on September 25, 2024, 03:48:06 PM
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To no one's surprise, the great Karl is skipping the 1st week at the Red Mile.
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He will make a great stallion......... in Minnesota
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as his losses pile up--his value goes down
he will not race as a 4yo-that idea is not realistic-that is not how the industry conducts its business these days
there was a reason SBSW skipped so many races and mainly faced Ontario bred competiton--he was managed to be undefeated and that failed also
-- horses today don't dance all the dances --most have a carefully structured schedule to not stress a horse's season
i can recall Precious Bunny and Artsplace in 91 danced every dance--(even with Artsplace was supposedly "sick" his 3yo year)--ever since then horses are racing less and less
if you dance every dance-you must face adversity--shipping, outside posts, weather, not being 100%, different sized tracks-racing almost every week-which will create losses here and there-obviously those days are long gone
slots welfare also contributed--now there are plenty of big money races to schedule around as opposed to decades ago when skipping major races was unheard of-now you can skip whatever races you want and still earn plenty and command a solid stud fee without dancing all the dances
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I'm old school, and if I owned a horse, I'd want him running in more races than they do today.
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I only know what I saw on the track when this horse raced. I didn't talk to anyone at Takter's. I am not a trainer and I don't play on on TV or the internet. I am not an armchair or keyboard trainer. I look at horses with an eye to bet on them, today, next week, and so on. I've been doing it for over 40 years. I think I have a good eye, but if I don't, it's still an eye that I am willing to put my money on.
That said, this horse got lucky winning the Hambo. He's subsequently been beat in a race that should have been a paid training mile. He's not 100%. Whether it be sound, healthy, peak/performance, or something else. So, they are babying him. If status quo continues, and if he can show up, his starts will be limited to the biggest of the big dances remaining---money wise and prestige wise. That's what they will do. Why? Because they have to. If he runs the table in three more big races, including the Breeders Crown, other than some created/manipulated factoid.....this is the horse is going to be remembered as one of the greatest of all time? I question if he'd make top 50 of GOAT.
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papillion, not sure on your comments on the great sbsw, raced all the big races at 3
most races were in open competition , not ontario breds
21 starts, 20 wins and 1 second
and now the sire of sires
and he is the example you pick to show how inferior horses are protected nowadays???
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There are people who say SBSW was protected, ducked this, avoided that, and so on. I think people say that if you don't go to the LBJ. I think people say it if you "only" race on a half once or twice and you do it in restricted company. I also KNOW that if fans expect owners to campaign their horses up to the fans expectations, fans are going to be guaranteed disappointed. Owners campaign their horses to get maximum ROR. They put up their capital and their motivation is supposed to be to maximize ROR.
If an owner wants to let a horse do his talking in every, some, limited races, so be it. The horse will do his talking and the true experts can see, hear, listen, and watch, and they will know.
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is the Futurity no longer heats?
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papillion, not sure on your comments on the great sbsw, raced all the big races at 3
most races were in open competition , not ontario breds
21 starts, 20 wins and 1 second
and now the sire of sires
and he is the example you pick to show how inferior horses are protected nowadays???
how many races of the 21 were not in Canada?--with all due respect-thats hardly "dancing all the dances"
three at M1(he lost one)
two at Lexington
one at Yonkers
correct me if I am wrong-i believe the other 15 were in Canada
skipped the Jug
skipped the Adios
skipped the Cane
skipped the Matron
never raced on a 5/8ths track his entire career
how many were Gold Series OSS?
NONE of his 2yo races were in the USA
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Karl certinally is not building much of a resume for a stud career. Has to be a soundness factor. Cut his nuts out, give him a year off and see what happens.
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raced on a 1/2 , 5 times , won all 5
not sure exactly who you think he was ducking in his 3 yr old year
in his 3 yr old year he won the following races
na cup, meadowlands pace,confederation cup,simcoe, bluegrass,tattersals,messenger , breeders crown
i think that covers it
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raced on a 1/2 , 5 times , won all 5
not sure exactly who you think he was ducking in his 3 yr old year
in his 3 yr old year he won the following races
na cup, meadowlands pace,confederation cup,simcoe, bluegrass,tattersals,messenger , breeders crown
i think that covers it
Battle of Waterloo
Gold Series
Burlington
Nasagaweya
3yo Open
Confederation Cup
Simcoe
Gold Series
his two wins in Lexington he was 1/9 and faced nothing as they seeded Art Official in the other division
not saying the horse was ducking Shadow Play/Art Official/Badlands Nitro
...but they pampered the living shit out of him and was managed for an undefeated career--did not dance all the dances
all the races i listed above didnt have any US based horses facing him
so for me(and i am aware i am on an island here) his NA Cup, Messenger and Breeders Crown were quality wins and his mystique about how great he was, we will never know because MacGrath took that away from us-not really letting show how great he might have been -instead he chose the Gold Series as his priority
Niatross was 37 for 39 and had excuses in his two losses
SBSW brought his A game to The Big M Pace, the biggest race of his career --and lost to a horse who arguably had a slightly rougher trip(they were similar trips).
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I loved the horse.. but I was very disappointed when they skipped the jug. Yes he was protected... but he was awesome. Not to mention he would more then likely still be the top sire if he was still alive. Furthermore he had that career with an average driver at best...talking about SBSW of course.
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this is so ridiculous
Somebeachsomewher e is among the greatest of all time. So what he skipped the Jug
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this is so ridiculous
Somebeachsomewher e is among the greatest of all time. So what he skipped the Jug
I was disappointed because it was my one chance to see him in person. I don't blame the owners and trainer for skipping it at all.
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Karl certinally is not building much of a resume for a stud career. Has to be a soundness factor. Cut his nuts out, give him a year off and see what happens.
Cut out a Hambo winner's nuts? That would be a first. LOL.
If he runs the table for three more starts, including the BC, I'd be shocked if his stud fee was higher than 15k. I said 10k, but others said 15k. I don't have any trotting mares anymore, but if I did and they were a good cross, I wouldn't be rushing to breed a mare to him.
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how many races of the 21 were not in Canada?--with all due respect-thats hardly "dancing all the dances"
three at M1(he lost one)
two at Lexington
one at Yonkers
correct me if I am wrong-i believe the other 15 were in Canada
skipped the Jug
skipped the Adios
skipped the Cane
skipped the Matron
never raced on a 5/8ths track his entire career
how many were Gold Series OSS?
NONE of his 2yo races were in the USA
The race he lost at Meadowlands he raced beyond incredible, parked 51.4 and 119.2. It might have been his best race ever and if you think Art Official who was on the rail all the way around had a tougher trip is simply not true. The mile he raced at Yonkers parked against Shadow Place in a monsoon was sublime.
To criticize a horse and owners who won 20 of 21 races and didn't stay undefeated because he lost by a neck in 1.47 parked out has me lost for words. 1.47 was 1/5 off the world record set by Holborn as a older horse at Lexington. Oh and then he tied Holborn's world record winning in 46.4 by 7. And you somehow you believe it was a failure because he wasn't perfect .
His greatness stands out.
PS Holborn is the perfect example why time alone does not determine true greatness.
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I mean he was Canadian bred and they have a pretty good program so it kind of makes sense.
If they were protecting him they wouldn’t have raced him in the slop on a half at Yonkers in November. That may have been his best mile
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I asked every person who I respected and admired in this industry what they thought of SBSW. Not that their opinion would change mind. When the syndication deal was announced, I was buying a share in him from day one. There are many widely accepted experts in the sport/business. Bob Boni is one. I may not be a fan of his, but, aside from being one of the most respected judges of horseflesh in the world, he also selected, owned, managed, and raced, numerous World Champions, like Nihilator, Camtastic, and Always B Miki. Not too long ago, he said SBSW was the greatest horse he had seen in modern times (going back to the 70's). He added that his lone defeat did not at all subtract from his greatness, but it defined it. Bob Marks said something very similar. Geoff Stein (who died in 2012 I think) said that while Niatross was a horse a generation ahead of his time, SBSW was truly the greatest horse since then. Dave Reid, David James, Jerry Glantz, and I'll throw in Murray Brown, although I always felt he was a putz, all aside from a situational bias, have said similar things. If it were going to not be published, and you asked John Campbell and Billy O'Donnell, objectively, they have said the same thing.
Yes, Niatross will come up, and without question he was truly a horse who was ahead of time. But after SBSW came along, in my opinion, he displaced any others from Niatross on. Put together a GOAT pacer list, and nobody would be shocked if his name appeared on it. You won't find Precious Bunny's name on it, or Presidential Ball, or Cams Card Shark. A GOAT list is not about line item accomplishments. It's not about accolades on a pedigree page. It's about true greatness doing what you did. A teletimer ain't gonna show you that.
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I see MIKE CAMPBELL hasn't been online in a few days! It looks like he finally "LAID DOWN" after getting 'beaten down' over and over again by the posters here. Still awaiting his comeback though!
Now we can actually discuss for serious subjects here without the nasty vindictive comments, 'whining', and "crying"!
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For everyone who will be in Lexington, you can come out and watch all the horses train in the mornings. Karl will be there! I am sure he will be easily recognizable to people. ;)
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Like I said, I think I know where his stud fee lands if he runs the table.
Just curious.....if Karl unfortunately retired now.....what would his stud fee be?
He's skipping the Bluegrass, so let's say he unfortunately loses the KY Futurity and loses the BC.....what's his stud fee then?
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Like I said, I think I know where his stud fee lands if he runs the table.
Just curious.....if Karl unfortunately retired now.....what would his stud fee be?
He's skipping the Bluegrass, so let's say he unfortunately loses the KY Futurity and loses the BC.....what's his stud fee then?
Perhaps just as important, which farm would he be at?
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Like I said, I think I know where his stud fee lands if he runs the table.
Just curious.....if Karl unfortunately retired now.....what would his stud fee be?
He's skipping the Bluegrass, so let's say he unfortunately loses the KY Futurity and loses the BC.....what's his stud fee then?
$25-$30k
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Karl certinally is not building much of a resume for a stud career. Has to be a soundness factor. Cut his nuts out, give him a year off and see what happens.
He’s a double millionaire Breeders Crown and Hambletonian winner. 2 races Greenshoe never won who stands for $25k
his stud career is set in stone
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this is so ridiculous
Somebeachsomewher e is among the greatest of all time. So what he skipped the Jug
Totally agree and IMO one of the greatest stallions of all time so why would anyone bring up SBSW in this convo. We shall see but I highly doubt Karl comes anywhere close to the stud career Beach had. If only he were still here he may have been hands down greatest stallion of all time
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Totally agree and IMO one of the greatest stallions of all time so why would anyone bring up SBSW in this convo. We shall see but I highly doubt Karl comes anywhere close to the stud career Beach had. If only he were still here he may have been hands down greatest stallion of all time
You are correct, would have been one of the all time greats, probably still is. I've been around a lot of great stallions but he's one of the best.
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He’s a double millionaire Breeders Crown and Hambletonian winner. 2 races Greenshoe never won who stands for $25k
his stud career is set in stone
Depends on how he wins the BC. He has to show breeders something. In today's market, breeders are going to tell you Karl is far from set in stone. He's not competition for Greenshoe in the breeding shed. He could be a strong, even dominant second tier trotting stallion at $15k. If he debuts at $25k or $30k, it would be a huge hurdle to overcome. Greenshoe was a completely different pedigree scenario and they are completely different horses. Greenshoe was a $330,000 yearling and had a stallion's pedigree from day one. Look at his family, what the rest of the family sold for, the mare crosses, and what the yearlings sold for. On top of that, if you don't see the difference in the types of horses they are, it's a complete neglect of what each colt showed talent, ability, athleticism, etc. Even without Greenshoe winning those races, he was going to be greatly received and respected as a stallion. Look at what his yearlings sold for.
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Perhaps just as important, which farm would he be at?
He won't have trouble finding a farm. Stats/accolades alone will find him a home.
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Totally agree and IMO one of the greatest stallions of all time so why would anyone bring up SBSW in this convo. We shall see but I highly doubt Karl comes anywhere close to the stud career Beach had. If only he were still here he may have been hands down greatest stallion of all time
Agreed. The two shouldn't be in any of the same conversation, horse or stallion career.
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He’s a double millionaire Breeders Crown and Hambletonian winner. 2 races Greenshoe never won who stands for $25k
his stud career is set in stone
Keep something else in mind. He had an amazing 2yo year. Was light years ahead of the entire class, except, maybe, TCI some might argue. Regardless, now look at what happened at 3.....look at what breeders are going to see.....not people voting for HOTY, but breeders, look at what they look at. His 3yo year completely changed the perception and direction this colt's career was going in from a stallion perspective.
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Many years ago a very smart horseman told me. “Speed can come from anywhere but soundness is bred in. “
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Good Lord to say Art Official had a worse trip shows you will say anything to try and make your statement sound believable....the horse was bred in Canada so why wouldn't he race alot up there...they have a great sire program and big money races on their own....like others said if they were scared of competition they wouldn't have ran Yonkers in a monsoon.
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Many years ago a very smart horseman told me. “Speed can come from anywhere but soundness is bred in. “
Very insightful. Profound. Thought provoking too, LOL. Who was it that said that?
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Many years ago a very smart horseman told me. “Speed can come from anywhere but soundness is bred in. “
Most of the Tactical Landings we have had - especially the more light bodied ones - have had soundness issues. People have has lots of success with them but we have not
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Very insightful. Profound. Thought provoking too, LOL. Who was it that said that?
U C Steele
One day he was talking breeding , was well into his 80’s, and someone said “you are looking out pretty far”. He replied that he fully expected to live to be 100 and active. He passed at 99.
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U C Steele
One day he was talking breeding , was well into his 80’s, and someone said “you are looking out pretty far”. He replied that he fully expected to live to be 100 and active. He passed at 99.
That's great. Lyss! I really liked that guy! I met him a few times and we stayed in touch. He was a very sharp owner. Sharp breeder. Very astute, and a good judge of horseflesh. At one time he named every horse he bred with the first letter S. A really nice man.
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SBSW raced 15 times at 3. Not a "full" schedule, but certainly not babied. I would say babied is 10 to 12 starts and skipping one or two real majors---the NA Cup or the Meadowlands Pace, avoiding a half completely, and possibly ducking specific horses. At 2 he was 6 for 6 and raced in the Nassagaweya and the Champlain which are not slouch races, the Battle of Waterloo---elimination and final (which has become a far more prestigious Canadian, and in recent years has attracted horses from the US, but that's irrelevant here) and let's not forget the most prestigious race for 2yo's anywhere, the $1mm Metro, elimination and final.
At 3, he danced at won every race except the one-----both OSS Gold/Super Finals (only an idiot would skip those, remember, this is about making money, LOL, and nothing is better than easier money, LOL), the Simcoe, the Burlington, the Confederation Cup (elimination and final) the elimination and final of the NA Cup, the Meadowlands Pace, the Messenger, and for those of you who ONLY WATCH THE TELETIMER, he set a WR in the Bluegrass (146.4). Was it the fullest dance card, no, but he will be considered as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, horse of modern times. Certainly since Niatross and I would go back before that. SBSW will make the top 10 GOAT of any true expert in the sport.
Yes, he lost the Meadowlands Pace. That didn't subtract from his career or greatness, it defined it. SBSW didn't lose to a better horse. Nobody is going to say Art Official was a better horse. He simply wasn't. SBSW got a pretty unfavorable drive and trip and got beat by a horse who had a better trip. Not perfect, but better. Art Official had an excellent career, but his victory over a truly great horse doesn't make him a greater horse. Art Official won what---12 or 13 races out of 20 as a 3yo? Dominant? People say he was in a different division in the Bluegrass, yes that's true. SBSW went in 146.4 and Art Official went in 1:48.3 (just a side note for all of you who ONLY WATCH THE TELETIMER, LOL). Come on, set aside your own disappointments, frustrations, whatever. Owners who manage champions will disappoint you every day, LOL.
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lets all be honest the only reason sbsw lost the meds pace is paul macdonel.worst trip since titanic.my question is how good was sbsw to carry that anchor around and only lose once
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This thread has totally gone off the rails. It was a thread about Karl and he and SBSW shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence. If it wasn't for MacDonnell he would have been perfect. Ask anyone under the age of 40.. if there are any that young that follow harness racing..LOL and 90% would say SBSW is the goat.. regardless of gait. The other 10 percent would be split amongst Muscle Hill, Artsplace etc....
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lets all be honest the only reason sbsw lost the meds pace is paul macdonel.worst trip since titanic.my question is how good was sbsw to carry that anchor around and only lose once
tmbz1 tmbz1.. What I had just finished typing. ngc3 ngc3
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lets all be honest the only reason sbsw lost the meds pace is paul macdonel.worst trip since titanic.my question is how good was sbsw to carry that anchor around and only lose once
LOL (Titanic). Good one. Listen, I always liked Paul. I think he's one of the real good guys of our sport and he's a good horseman. I won't say anything bad about him, but that's just because I like him and I respect him. Yes, he gave him a very tough drive, rough, etc. Think about it this way, even with that, he almost pulled it off, LOL, and the horse that beat him was the only horse that possibly could. Better decision making by Ron Pierce, ingenious perhaps, LOL. Better trip, perfect trip to beat SBSW.
Paul felt bad about the race. Really bad. He took the blame upon himself. He felt bad for the horse and the owners, and also the sport. But races get run and that one went the way it went.
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This thread has totally gone off the rails. It was a thread about Karl and he and SBSW shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence. If it wasn't for MacDonnell he would have been perfect. Ask anyone under the age of 40.. if there are any that young that follow harness racing..LOL and 90% would say SBSW is the goat.. regardless of gait. The other 10 percent would be split amongst Muscle Hill, Artsplace etc....
Excellent points.
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this is so ridiculous
Somebeachsomewher e is among the greatest of all time. So what he skipped the Jug
Agreed.
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IMO,
Over the years, many trainers were not concerned about the Little Brown Jug as a priority on their agendas. A 1–2-mile track, decreasing purses, and heat racing were perhaps 'valid reasons' in their thought processes.
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Is there a second person who would put Karl on the GOAT list? I really can't imagine it.
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Is there a second person who would put Karl on the GOAT list? I really can't imagine it.
Crickets!
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IMO,
Over the years, many trainers were not concerned about the Little Brown Jug as a priority on their agendas. A 1–2-mile track, decreasing purses, and heat racing were perhaps 'valid reasons' in their thought processes.
I don't think purse has much to do with it.. I think the jug final was 525000 this year. I think the only races with a bigger purse are the Meadowlands Pace, NA Cup and breeders crown. It's 2 heats and the fear of drawing outside. Let's say SBSW raced in Delaware and drew the 8 hole. Just to qualify for the final would have taken alot out of him.. even a horse that great. And then come back an hour or 2 later and race again. I've seen it many times even with jug winners where that takes to much out of a horse and they are cooked the rest of the year.
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IMO,
Over the years, many trainers were not concerned about the Little Brown Jug as a priority on their agendas. A 1–2-mile track, decreasing purses, and heat racing were perhaps 'valid reasons' in their thought processes.
For SBSW I think it was more timing as he raced heats the same day on a 1/2 in the Confederation Cup.
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https://www.ustrotting.com/assets/pdf/3CPGC.pdf?v=20240926
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https://www.ustrotting.com/assets/pdf/3CPGC.pdf?v=20240926
Not sure how accurate that is Grandstand
It lists the LBJ as a million and they only did that last year. Total purse this year was 625,000.. 2 50,000 eliminations and 525,000 final
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Not sure how accurate that is Grandstand
It lists the LBJ as a million and they only did that last year. Total purse this year was 625,000.. 2 50,000 eliminations and 525,000 final
Have no idea. It's just what they published for this year. Take it with a mountain of salt! LOL.
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I don't question how connections manage their horses. I just watch the horse on the track and I watch how they manage the horse. No judgment. You draw your own conclusions. People who don't put up capital can't put themselves in the shoes of those who do. It's hypothetical. Nobody who is qualified, who knows what they are looking at, who knows anything about horses, would look at what races SBSW raced in order to reconcile whether he was a great horse or not.
Remember, there's at least one top 3yo every year. Very, very few make it onto a GOAT list.
Sorry, I forgot.....this was about Karl.
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Many years ago a very smart horseman told me. “Speed can come from anywhere but soundness is bred in. “
Agreed! Go to the pacing side of the ledger and Big Towner!
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lets all be honest the only reason sbsw lost the meds pace is paul macdonel.worst trip since titanic.my question is how good was sbsw to carry that anchor around and only lose once
tmbz1 tmbz1 tmbz1
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lets all be honest the only reason sbsw lost the meds pace is paul macdonel.worst trip since titanic.my question is how good was sbsw to carry that anchor around and only lose once
Like him or not, you just can't really deny that. :-X LOL
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UH-OH!!!
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Value is sinking as he loses third in a row. Only gets into the final because Kismet broke.
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he was terrible tonight but if overrated kismet didnt break and interfere with him he was going to make the final as 4th at worst
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Not that I would if I had money but I would send a mare to Tactical Approach before I send one to Karl, if comparing the two of them
TA is out of a Donato Hanover mare, and he is a bigger stronger-built horse.
Having said that, I would go to Walner before anything else period.
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Not that I would if I had money but I would send a mare to Tactical Approach before I send one to Karl, if comparing the two of them
TA is out of a Donato Hanover mare, and he is a bigger stronger-built horse.
Having said that, I would go to Walner before anything else period.
A quick look at Friday and Saturday charts show Walner had 7 three year olds start and 4 two year olds. All 4 fillies made the finals and 3 out of 7 colts. One winner and all the rest were 4 th or 5 th. We will see how thay do next week.
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Listen, Karl once again looked "ordinary" (compared to his 2yo year and expectations). People can speak to sound, not sound, bled, lasix, etc. That said, I never thought he was a "great" colt, simply because of----one, what I saw and how he did what he did. Two, I think too many people throw the word "great". Three, the word seems to be grossly overused and it applies to every leading horse of their respective class.
I am not a trainer. I don't who is on this website, but I would venture to say there is not one trainer on this site I would consider to be a better horseman than Jimmy Takter. So, if the horse is not sound, if anyone can get him right, it's Jimmy and not some poster here. I also don't suspect anyone here knows what number he bled, how long it's been going on, etc.
So, never being on the Karl or great train, and this may sound strange coming from me, but, I am not making him a toss for next week. Sure, he got lucky getting in. He would have been second to last or last had HK not broke. However, I think this is a weak crop. I think it's a bit of an inconsistent crop----in that the colts at the top of the class haven't been extremely consistent. Any one of them can break, throw in a clunker, or something of the like. I think Jimmy knows what he's dealing with and has been pointing this colt to the BC since Lexington, since he bled, etc. I think he was not all out, by design, but was used and a bit hard.
I am going to watch a lot of replays. I am going to watch what trainers really know how to peak a colt for a specific race. I will be at training centers this week watching whoever and whatever I can, and get as much information on the colts I can't or don't see (although I won't get any reports from Takter's farm, LOL). I did all of this for the KY Futurity, and just like I did in Lexington, I am going to be prepared, very prepared, so that in case I see something on the track and on the board, I can strike. I saw what I saw for the Futurity, with several minutes to post, and I fired away, and it paid off.....big time, LOL. But, that aside, I am not making Karl an automatic toss. Not by any means.