HORSEPLOP.COM
General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: LimeTime on February 24, 2024, 08:48:15 PM
-
If your using last half or last quarter to figure ability- factor in the racing involved like parkout ,wide, no/cover and wind conditions as evidenced by flags on infield. For example a 28 flat last quarter at Meadows is a great last quarter and if it was raced wide at end of last turn and against wind in the stretch-its a world class monster quarter- if it was wind aided or a rail trip of course its no where near as good. Same principle with last half figures. Also, Im very skeptical of the last quarter readouts on mile tracks- I dont know if they are running downhill or what but they dont seem legit and dont stand up to scrutiny- they are unrealistically fast. I dont rely on mile track program last quarters listed in the program- I add time to them. All other track configurations are legit fractions excluding Fairs tracks ofcourse.
-
You cannot simply use the last half or last quarter in and of itself. It's simply a number. If you are going to use a myopic number, you have to include variables which don't have a fixed number -- they are subjective. That's why anyone who offers a "number" -- representing anything -- is nothing more than BS. Look at the Beyer #'s and understand those. You say to "figure ability" but factor in "the racing involved like parkout ,wide, no/cover and wind conditions as evidenced by flags on infield" -- which have nothing to do with ability. So how do you combine the two, or three, four, and so on? Objective and subjective! That's all it is.
You are better off doing the work, handicapping the races, and investing your money.
-
You can use many methods to pick winners.
1 - Voodoo
2 - Your cat may be an excellent handicapper, just smear some tuna fish on the program and see which horse name he eats first.
3 - Call a psychic.
4 - The Suicide hotline.
These are a few excellent ways.
-
If your using last half or last quarter to figure ability- factor in the racing involved like parkout ,wide, no/cover and wind conditions as evidenced by flags on infield. For example a 28 flat last quarter at Meadows is a great last quarter and if it was raced wide at end of last turn and against wind in the stretch-its a world class monster quarter- if it was wind aided or a rail trip of course its no where near as good. Same principle with last half figures. Also, Im very skeptical of the last quarter readouts on mile tracks- I dont know if they are running downhill or what but they dont seem legit and dont stand up to scrutiny- they are unrealistically fast. I dont rely on mile track program last quarters listed in the program- I add time to them. All other track configurations are legit fractions excluding Fairs tracks ofcourse.
All good stuff 30 plus years ago. This is all a juice game now. Learn the cheaters, their patterns and how they operate. Beards in, beards out,etc. One does not need a program for past performances, just knowledge of the owners, "trainers" and moves they make. If real penalties were actually put in place, the game would cease to exist because of how much cheating that is taking place.
-
You can use many methods to pick winners.
1 - Voodoo
2 - Your cat may be an excellent handicapper, just smear some tuna fish on the program and see which horse name he eats first.
3 - Call a psychic.
These are a few excellent ways.
tmbz1 tmbz1 tmbz1
Much better than the OPs take on what a fast last quarter means.
-
You cannot simply use the last half or last quarter in and of itself. It's simply a number. If you are going to use a myopic number, you have to include variables which don't have a fixed number -- they are subjective. That's why anyone who offers a "number" -- representing anything -- is nothing more than BS. Look at the Beyer #'s and understand those. You say to "figure ability" but factor in "the racing involved like parkout ,wide, no/cover and wind conditions as evidenced by flags on infield" -- which have nothing to do with ability. So how do you combine the two, or three, four, and so on? Objective and subjective! That's all it is.
You are better off doing the work, handicapping the races, and investing your money.
Ive won almost every year for a long time by using an exact science as much as possible and not a general approach of top trainer, top driver and other general information. I suse a time rating system factoring in trip, wind, etc, real factors not pie in the sky. Yes, doing the work as you say. lets have a little contest sometime. I will post a selection and you give your reply. ANd using a last quarter correctly adjusted as I basically described is a real angle- not for every race but where it can be applied as an outstanding quarter.
-
All good stuff 30 plus years ago. This is all a juice game now. Learn the cheaters, their patterns and how they operate. Beards in, beards out,etc. One does not need a program for past performances, just knowledge of the owners, "trainers" and moves they make. If real penalties were actually put in place, the game would cease to exist because of how much cheating that is taking place.
Valid point, but I have an answer for that. I can usually detect the phony races understanding that the phony race may be repeated but when they move up in class its usually not. But my main answer is I stay away from those type races- I concentrate on NW1,Maiden,NW2, 2 yr olds, early 3 yr olds- races that dont involve drugging nearly as much and at times not at all.
-
You cannot simply use the last half or last quarter in and of itself. It's simply a number. If you are going to use a myopic number, you have to include variables which don't have a fixed number -- they are subjective. That's why anyone who offers a "number" -- representing anything -- is nothing more than BS. Look at the Beyer #'s and understand those. You say to "figure ability" but factor in "the racing involved like parkout ,wide, no/cover and wind conditions as evidenced by flags on infield" -- which have nothing to do with ability. So how do you combine the two, or three, four, and so on? Objective and subjective! That's all it is.
You are better off doing the work, handicapping the races, and investing your money.
Also, part of your confusion is you have been relying on mile track last quarters in the program which I described my concerns with in my original post.
-
Valid point, but I have an answer for that. I can usually detect the phony races understanding that the phony race may be repeated but when they move up in class its usually not. But my main answer is I stay away from those type races- I concentrate on NW1,Maiden,NW2, 2 yr olds, early 3 yr olds- races that dont involve drugging nearly as much and at times not at all.
The races you are talking about, especially NW 1,2,3, etc. are all about stiffing to finish second and third start after start, milking the class. Purses at places like Dover are very good for these classes and guys like Alan Davis have been grabbing a big hold in the lane for years. Only winning if they know they can handle the next NW class and so on. The best gas and just hitting the board huge keys to betting ROI.
-
You can use many methods to pick winners.
1 - Voodoo
2 - Your cat may be an excellent handicapper, just smear some tuna fish on the program and see which horse name he eats first.
3 - Call a psychic.
4 - The Suicide hotline.
These are a few excellent ways.
You can buy the DNRS for 5 bucks and get half the horses in the race. 73cv.2 (although with inflation it's probably up to 20 now!)
-
Al Stanley 2024 tmbz1