HORSEPLOP.COM
General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: Harness Stats on October 02, 2023, 07:22:16 PM
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Sale just started http://www.lexingtonselected.com/year-sale-video.html
This thread is if anyone wants to discuss or observe things that seem interesting for whatever reason.
First thing I see that was weird was they couldn't give away the first foal of Hen Party so to speak. 35,000 for a Cap T . Real Cheap
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Must have had a major flaw somewhere
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It was a Crawford yearling. Looks like the TDS are not being well received
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Bidding seems slow not “spirited”
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I bet the owners of the Maven filly expected more than $135,000. Must be something that many did not like
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Sale just started http://www.lexingtonselected.com/year-sale-video.html
This thread is if anyone wants to discuss or observe things that seem interesting for whatever reason.
First thing I see that was weird was they couldn't give away the first foal of Hen Party so to speak. 35,000 for a Cap T . Real Cheap
$45,000 but that is SHOCKING so MUST be MAJOR issue but if so why selling first night?
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Could it possibly be the owners are sick of the M Crawford look at me shit. While employers of 4 individuals that are in prison. So far their horses are selling cheap
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Yes it was 45 not 35 but still something wrong there.
Next weird observation hip 32 A Muscle Hill first foal of Quincy Blue Chip went for only 50,000.
Quincy Blue Chip was that filly that won a ton of NY Sires Stakes in a row in 2019 and was trained by Dowse. When the shit hit the fan with the Marks/Schnittiker thing Blue Chip pulled this filly and put her for sale (I think on Ongait) Banca bought her and did OK but not the same as Dowse. She retired at the end of that year.
So with the real good racing career of this mare 50 grand for a Muscle Hill seems cheap. Are they worried about after effects of juice???
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We buying 43
If under 350gees
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That would have been a deal. Went for half million.
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For the mares he got TDS are not that hot. Maybe trainers noticed driver had to pound on him to keep him going forward ?
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On par but just short of last year. 189k in 22 vs 183k average 23. Look like one deep pocket spent over 3.0m while last year deep pocket spent more less on buying a single yearling.
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Could it possibly be the owners are sick of the M Crawford look at me shit. While employers of 4 individuals that are in prison. So far their horses are selling cheap
tmbz1
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Lets give some credit to Gympanzee. So far the sales topper with the Mission Brief filly Kadena for Eight Hundred Grand. Is that the highest ever paid for a filly at a yearling sale?
His other six all went for over a hundred grand, most much higher. I did not see any averages posted yet although they might be, but I would be willing to bet that Gympanzee had the highest average by far.
Next on the weird scale is Determination. So far all pacers which in itself is weird, except for Eurobank Hanover who went for the 2nd lowest of the entire sale 40,000. This trotting bred colt is a full brother to their Emoji Hanover who just went in the Mohawk Million and Emoticon Hanover dam of Drawn Impression, also theirs and in that race who may also go on to be a great horse. There has to be something really off with this one to go for that price.
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I'm thinking the bidding will be concentrated among fewer bidders this year. The ones with deep pockets and the large stables. Adding new sires increased the horses available. Overall yoy price averages will not as impressive as last year. Inflation and higher interest rates will take its toll on some smaller bidders. There will be bargains to be had. #61 Shartin N filly for 140k seem low to me.
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The overall condition of the industry has a lot more to do with the prices paid than inflation and interest rates.
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Excellent point, Parked. Trotters have a much greater market on the top end as their potential is international. Both in race earnings and much greater in breeding value.
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some bidders get scared off purchasing yearlings that raced for trainers who may be perceived as trainers who won't ever be confused with hay and oats trainers
another huge price for a Mission Brief yearling, how have the other yearlings done on the track?
that's my point
newer larger buyer at the sale who purchased 3 higher priced trotting yearlings for a trainer not known for training trotters, training trotting babies is an art, an acquired skill, and not as easy as training pacers
we'll see how they do by the end of next year
overall sale was weaker than last year but still rather high, sale numbers will decrease (probably) from last year for the rest of the week, then the sale company may say they were expecting that
I saw a few that will give their owners great tax write-offs over the next couple of years, some prices baffled me
more fun to come
best wishes!
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some bidders get scared off purchasing yearlings that raced for trainers who may be perceived as trainers who won't ever be confused with hay and oats trainers
another huge price for a Mission Brief yearling, how have the other yearlings done on the track?
that's my point
newer larger buyer at the sale who purchased 3 higher priced trotting yearlings for a trainer not known for training trotters, training trotting babies is an art, an acquired skill, and not as easy as training pacers
we'll see how they do by the end of next year
overall sale was weaker than last year but still rather high, sale numbers will decrease (probably) from last year for the rest of the week, then the sale company may say they were expecting that
I saw a few that will give their owners great tax write-offs over the next couple of years, some prices baffled me
more fun to come
best wishes!
Largely agree with you. The extent of European buyers is also down, they usually contribute immensely to opening night gavel smashers. Not so much this year. Equally affecting is that there are many more sales and opportunities for buyers in other areas of the country. The proof of this is the altered sales schedules that were once set in stone. Including an entire day removed from the Harrisburg sale that once carried into the weekend. Mainly this is harness racing only! TB's sales are still brisk, and the amount of entries just as large as ever.
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No Downbytheseaside to sell on first day ?? Is his value dropping ??
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No Downbytheseaside to sell on first day ?? Is his value dropping ??
No Downbytheseaside's till Day 5
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No Downbytheseaside to sell on first day ?? Is his value dropping ??
And 2 Sweet Lous. What's the criteria for day one?
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And 2 Sweet Lous. What's the criteria for day one?
Is it a breeder farm thing that they have clout to get horses onto the first day menu ?
19 Tall Dark Strangers ---- that didn't all that well....
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The overall condition of the industry has a lot more to do with the prices paid than inflation and interest rates.
I am just saying some bidders I know have pockets tied to real estate which is in the dumps right now from higher interest rates . They might not reach as deep this year. And even the industry is feeling the effects of higher inflation. Full yoy sales numbers will tell us . They already mentioned 1st day sales yoy are down.
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day one down slightly
i can guarantee you there is not one breeder/seller complaining
NOT ONE !!!
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day one down slightly
i can guarantee you there is not one breeder/seller complaining
NOT ONE !!!
At least one .. I wonder how much money they spent on advertising Shartin's foal ? Do you think they were happy with 140?
There's probably a few others, but for the most part I'm sure there are few complaints although it seems to me that foals of well known racehorses did worse than expected in general.
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The overall condition of the industry has a lot more to do with the prices paid than inflation and interest rates.
More so the impact felt will be on the higher US dollar and weaker euro against it. YOY for the most part European money sees more buying power with their money. Not the case this year.
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day one down slightly
i can guarantee you there is not one breeder/seller complaining
NOT ONE !!!
Day one sees the deep pocket buyers come out where very little affects their buying power. Let's look at the whole picture after Friday where the middle and smaller level buyers come into play.
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ok thorn , valid point
i guess the guy who paid a million to buy shartin is a little disappointed
but based on her lack of maternal pedigree that was a possibility
now if the first one or two are stars then the next ones go for big $$
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ok thorn , valid point
i guess the guy who paid a million to buy shartin is a little disappointed
but based on her lack of maternal pedigree that was a possibility
now if the first one or two are stars then the next ones go for big $$
I know I am going to get hammered for this comment but I have a theory why the Shartin filly may not have brought what many expected. First, her pedigree is average at best and second, is it possible some may feel that her exploits on the racetrack may be questionable. wink wink
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I know I am going to get hammered for this comment but I have a theory why the Shartin filly may not have brought what many expected. First, her pedigree is average at best and second, is it possible some may feel that her exploits on the racetrack may be questionable. wink wink
Probably more the pedigree, plus sometimes - I would even argue more often that not - these superfreak mares do not reproduce as expected.
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correct on both points mike
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Here is my observation
Andy Miller has some wealthy owners
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Probably more the pedigree, plus sometimes - I would even argue more often that not - these superfreak mares do not reproduce as expected.
This is dead on. Sometimes the full sister no accounts are better producers.
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Probably more the pedigree, plus sometimes - I would even argue more often that not - these superfreak mares do not reproduce as expected.
Well discount it or not, as with anything I say. But super freak mares are usually baked by the time they get to the breeding shed. Half have been hormonally transitioned to geldings, and the other half take multiple breedings to get in foal. After a breeding or two, only then do they start to become mares again, if ever.
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Well discount it or not, as with anything I say. But super freak mares are usually baked by the time they get to the breeding shed. Half have been hormonally transitioned to geldings, and the other half take multiple breedings to get in foal. After a breeding or two, only then do they start to become mares again, if ever.
I pretty much agree with this, I mentioned earlier that I thought a lot of the better racemares foals prices were low.
A rare exception to this is World record holder Shebestingin. Her 2nd foal was Perfect Sting
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I pretty much agree with this, I mentioned earlier that I thought a lot of the better racemares foals prices were low.
A rare exception to this is World record holder Shebestingin. Her 2nd foal was Perfect Sting
Perfect Sting actually tested positive though, will that drive his yearing prices down
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Here is my observation
Andy Miller has some wealthy owners
Agree, but is it me or does Andy and Julie spend not do this every year? IMO, and correct me if I’m wrong but the results are pretty light compared to what they spend
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What are the observations on the Papi Rob Hanover offspring. Would like to breed some of my mares to Papi Rob Hanover. So any type of feedback would be appreciated. Such if anyone has been to sale looking at his offspring, are they standing correct, etc. Any opinions on whether his offspring is catching good money results in sales? Thank you 🐴☘️💕
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"IMO, and correct me if I’m wrong but the results are pretty light compared to what they spend"
i think you will find this is true for most of the big spenders
good thing they can afford it
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What are the observations on the Papi Rob Hanover offspring. Would like to breed some of my mares to Papi Rob Hanover. So any type of feedback would be appreciated. Such if anyone has been to sale looking at his offspring, are they standing correct, etc. Any opinions on whether his offspring is catching good money results in sales? Thank you 🐴☘️💕
I liked what I saw on them for the most part. If I wa breeding to keep for myself I would take a shot with a mare I like the cross on. If breeding for sale you can do better. Also I would look around for discount breedings. Should be a few guys looking to sell theirs next year
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With some questionable placement this year, is it possible that corruption has taken over the Sale also? Sure looks fishy to me!
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Overall I liked what I saw. I would take a shot. By the time they are yearlings he will be established as a top sire while TDS will fail like Greenshoe…
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With some questionable placement this year, is it possible that corruption has taken over the Sale also? Sure looks fishy to me!
Please explain what you mean by corruption
The sale company assigns hip numbers based on alphabetical system using first letter of mare’s name. In cases where there is a farm name first they use 2nd name. The consigners can then move yearlings around within their allotted numbers as they see fit.
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nobody bragging about sales prices today
Captain Crunch, McWicked and Six Packs were not that loved
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Always B Miki taking a beating too.
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Agree, but is it me or does Andy and Julie spend not do this every year? IMO, and correct me if I’m wrong but the results are pretty light compared to what they spend
Yes I agree for why they spend the results don’t match up
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Great example of the shrinking numbers of small to lower middle sized owners getting out. After the “cream” things crash. You will see the same at Harrisburg.
Never observed as many “big name” trainers buying yearlings from $40,000 down.
Never could understand why record yearling prices were great news except for the big breeders. The
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It is the TRAINING expenses going through the roof that are whittling down the smaller investors which is an added thought when buying a yearling. These trainers have 8 months of basically FREE money to feed and jog a horse for top dollar monthly with basically no expectations of performance pressure on them. Once the stakes season starts, that is when the expenses skyrocket and the attitudes of all change, and the reality of wasted money sets in, as do the excuses, in 90% of the cases!
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It is the TRAINING expenses going through the roof that are whittling down the smaller investors which is an added thought when buying a yearling. These trainers have 8 months of basically FREE money to feed and jog a horse for top dollar monthly with basically no expectations of performance pressure on them. Once the stakes season starts, that is when the expenses skyrocket and the attitudes of all change, and the reality of wasted money sets in, as do the excuses, in 90% of the cases!
This statement tells me you have never trained a young horse. Do you expect them to just get fit by themselves. Training fees are up on average about 15% over last 20 years. Purses on the whole are 2-3x what they were. Some of the top stake races are down or stagnant but the sire stakes and overnight purses are way above what they were. Which in my opinion spreads the money around more.
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For those PAYING these bills the rates have changed dramatically. The standard rate per day 8 years ago was 50.00 per day. Now the rates are anywhere from 65.00-70.00 per day. That is a 30% increase. Stall space has seen a 50% increase over that time, as 250.00 per month was the norm. Add on the overpriced sales cost and that is why many smaller owners cannot see a path forward and can no longer be involved in buying a yearling. 3000 + per year are sold with probably half never reaching the races. Maybe 5%-10% are quality. The sport is pricing itself out of a lot of owners.
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Great example of the shrinking numbers of small to lower middle sized owners getting out. After the “cream” things crash. You will see the same at Harrisburg.
Never observed as many “big name” trainers buying yearlings from $40,000 down.
Never could understand why record yearling prices were great news except for the big breeders. The
Overall sale average of $71,566 was down 3 per cent from 2022’s record total. The small owners numbers are shrinking. Trainings bills are up due to inflation which squeezes the smaller owner. Sure purses are up but so is the competition with the breeders flooding the market which is an advantage for the big stables with the deep pocket owners who can pick and choose. No guaranteed the small owner will get any more of the higher purse pie to offset their higher training cost.
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ALAGNA TOPPED THE BUYERS: Trainer Tony Alagna led all buyers in purchases for the second straight year. He spent $4,627,500 to take home 35 yearlings. The tandem of Bill Pollock and Andrew Harris were second with $3,550,000 spent, total, on 10 yearlings. The Andy Miller Stable was third with 15 horses purchased for a total of $2,353,000.......so 60 yearlings sold for $10.5 million.......... .how many of these will even make $50K? Big owners with deep pockets throwing out money and thinking they all have the next big thing, when in reality, for what they spent, they were foolish. Think of the training bills on these 60 horses that these 3 trainers will earn the next 8 months until a small percentage of them will finally race.
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Thats why Tony always has a smile on his face