HORSEPLOP.COM
General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: winky on October 01, 2023, 09:54:56 AM
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At the end of Bret Hanover's career Frank Ervin shipped to California
and finished 3rd...
These are living things, whether humans or animals...not machines.
Novak Djokovic , arguably the greatest tennis player of all times
lost to a 19 year old upstart this year at Wimbledon in the finals.
Confederate raced off the pace in that NA and as we know
that presents problems as the leader usually gets a jump
and the off the pace horse is at the mercy of the pace.
As far as Confed goes....If I am a businessman heres the
math on the Breeding end...I am guessing on the stud Fee
but lets call it $10k? (could be $12-20)
150 Annual Breedings x $10k $1.5 Million Gross
10 years x $1.5 Million if all goes OK $15,000,000
Now , we do know if the first crop hits..the fees go up..
and subsequently vice versa....
We cannot forecast the future..
So far $1.558 Million earnings to date
(7) starts as a 2 yr old
(10) starts as a 3 year old
Now that...is how to race a horse..
When I see these jokers start a 2 year old more than 9 starts
I cringe.
They managed this horse very very well.
The public would like to see 20 starts as a 2 year old...
and then race every possible race as a 3 year old ...35 starts
There are KEY "GRADE 1" races @ 2 are .....#1
THE METRO
#2 The Breeders Crown
The Key races for 3 year olds are #1
#1 THE NORTH AMERICA CUP "Grade 1"
#2 Meadowlands Pace "Grade 1"
#3 The Breeders Crown "Grade 1"
# 4 The Jug Grade 2
Direct all nasty remarks and complaints to our secretary:
Helen Hunt
Modify message
Report to moderator
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Well since Diamond Creek is the owner they could stand him kn KY where are breeders award are getting good as they start to build up that program. Sweet Lou has a 15k stud fee has thrown just 4 millionaires and 2 happen to be 3 year olds this year. Confederate being a first foal and a millionaire may entice a higher stud fee than 10k. That 2nd and 3td dam production is legit. Going out 10 years in this business for breeding getting all that produce anyone would envy but just handfuls can produce. Breeders would actually start higher with the unknown of the future while having the hot iron in a boom or bust world. Being a Sweet Lou the 20k would probably be the top and maybe where Adam starts for the first few crops and if they don't hit the stud fee comes down.So the next question unless it's been floated what's the odds of racing at 4? Does this horse have a few left and that is it? You're right on the race schedule for this one almost like a thoroughbred hit the marks, win the races, then off to the shed.
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At the end of Bret Hanover's career Frank Ervin shipped to California
and finished 3rd...
These are living things, whether humans or animals...not machines.
Novak Djokovic , arguably the greatest tennis player of all times
lost to a 19 year old upstart this year at Wimbledon in the finals.
Confederate raced off the pace in that NA and as we know
that presents problems as the leader usually gets a jump
and the off the pace horse is at the mercy of the pace.
As far as Confed goes....If I am a businessman heres the
math on the Breeding end...I am guessing on the stud Fee
but lets call it $10k? (could be $12-20)
150 Annual Breedings x $10k $1.5 Million Gross
10 years x $1.5 Million if all goes OK $15,000,000
Now , we do know if the first crop hits..the fees go up..
and subsequently vice versa....
We cannot forecast the future..
So far $1.558 Million earnings to date
(7) starts as a 2 yr old
(10) starts as a 3 year old
Now that...is how to race a horse..
When I see these jokers start a 2 year old more than 9 starts
I cringe.
They managed this horse very very well.
The public would like to see 20 starts as a 2 year old...
and then race every possible race as a 3 year old ...35 starts
There are KEY "GRADE 1" races @ 2 are .....#1
THE METRO
#2 The Breeders Crown
The Key races for 3 year olds are #1
#1 THE NORTH AMERICA CUP "Grade 1"
#2 Meadowlands Pace "Grade 1"
#3 The Breeders Crown "Grade 1"
# 4 The Jug Grade 2
Direct all nasty remarks and complaints to our secretary:
Helen Hunt
Modify message
Report to moderator
Thank you Helen --
The limit is 140 mares. He could be syndicated with 120 of those breedings going to members. Opening stud fee probably in the 12.5-15 range. Most likely Pa. or Ky.
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Why not, he's in this business to make money and he loves the limelight. I wouldn't do anything different. What does he have to prove, NOTHING
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Hey Jidge,
Thanks for the comment...but I beg to differ to some degree.
If you wish to get technical....
As we speak...Bettors Delight is in Australia....awai ting
his return to Winbak Canada in January..
Not sure how many they wish to breed in Aussie but I am
sure that could push the total well over 140/150.
Helen
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Personally I wouldnt be shipping all over the Globe
but I donot call the shots.
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Hey Jidge,
Thanks for the comment...but I beg to differ to some degree.
If you wish to get technical....
As we speak...Bettors Delight is in Australia....awai ting
his return to Winbak Canada in January..
Not sure how many they wish to breed in Aussie but I am
sure that could push the total well over 140/150.
Helen
You are exactly correct Helen. I was commenting on the US. Not sure if they'll send him to Aussie, but they might do the frozen semen route. Good call.
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Exactly..I asked someone about that as it seems alot easier to
go that route rather than ship...
but they say having the horse there ...fits their program far better
and the semen works better..
I kept telling many of the girlfriends I tried to "date"
but unfortunately fell on deaf ears....
as most of my advances went in that department...
MY "stud fees" dipped dramatically with few takers.
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heck,
none of my dates even opted for my frozen semen.
0 Takers..
Story of my life.
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Will be syndicated most likely. Typical 120 share syndicate, sell shares at 80k to 100k, Diamond Creek will retain a fair number of shares and will retain all southern hemisphere rights just they’ve done with others. They’ll make around 8-10 million on the syndication up front and still retain a lot of shares plus all Aus/NZ income. That’s my prediction anyway, they don’t have to wait for stud fee income.
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Well since Diamond Creek is the owner they could stand him kn KY where are breeders award are getting good as they start to build up that program. Sweet Lou has a 15k stud fee has thrown just 4 millionaires and 2 happen to be 3 year olds this year. Confederate being a first foal and a millionaire may entice a higher stud fee than 10k. That 2nd and 3td dam production is legit. Going out 10 years in this business for breeding getting all that produce anyone would envy but just handfuls can produce. Breeders would actually start higher with the unknown of the future while having the hot iron in a boom or bust world. Being a Sweet Lou the 20k would probably be the top and maybe where Adam starts for the first few crops and if they don't hit the stud fee comes down.So the next question unless it's been floated what's the odds of racing at 4? Does this horse have a few left and that is it? You're right on the race schedule for this one almost like a thoroughbred hit the marks, win the races, then off to the shed.
This crop of 3 yr olds has been talked about since conception as Sweet Lous best book of mares. Lou has done more with less (started at 7500 and has produced to the point he will fill his book at 15k) and deserves the recognition for doing so. His # of millionaires will likely double next year as Hellabalou, Fourever Boy, Cannibal, and Geocentric will all likely race and reach that milestone.
If Confederate can win out, he will probably top 2 mil in earnings, a mark of 1:46.1, is well bred (Up close, Western Montana, and far back as its also the maternal family of Nihilator). That'll likely put him in the 20-25k range for a stud fee.
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Will be syndicated most likely. Typical 120 share syndicate, sell shares at 80k to 100k, Diamond Creek will retain a fair number of shares and will retain all southern hemisphere rights just they’ve done with others. They’ll make around 8-10 million on the syndication up front and still retain a lot of shares plus all Aus/NZ income. That’s my prediction anyway, they don’t have to wait for stud fee income.
exactly!!!
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What was the highest fee SBSW ever received?
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What was the highest fee SBSW ever received?
He started at 25k but if I remember right it got raised to $30 after his first crop hit the track. Captain Treacherous is 30. Tall Dark Stranger is 20. 25 makes sense for confederate
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What about Downbytheseaside, his crops just keep getting better and better. Stud fee goes up every year. Foot note on Confedatross stud career, don’t count on the down under money. Seaside had to stop doing double duty due colicky 2 yrs in row on arrival there. So that’s not a sure thing
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Nothing is a sure thing in the breeding business. If confederate doesn’t have a top 2yr old 1st crop the number of mares bred and the stud fee will go steadily down. Look at Sweet Loiu only 56 foals born this year
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It is a money game they will get all they can before first crop hits the track then that will tell what he is worth as a stud.
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Thank you Helen --
The limit is 140 mares. He could be syndicated with 120 of those breedings going to members. Opening stud fee probably in the 12.5-15 range. Most likely Pa. or Ky.
I predict a WAY higher stud fee than that. DCF stood Gimpanzee for $30k year 1, Father Patrick for an obscene amount as well if I recall ($25-$30k maybe?) Had to back both down.
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He will definitely stand in PA. No reason to take a stud to Kentucky. Lee your mares there 6 months and collect breeders awards both places
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I predict a WAY higher stud fee than that. DCF stood Gimpanzee for $30k year 1, Father Patrick for an obscene amount as well if I recall ($25-$30k maybe?) Had to back both down.
top trotter stallions usually start out higher, some breeders say pacers are a dime a dozen, tougher to find a top (Muscle Hill, C7, Walner) trotting stallion
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I predict a WAY higher stud fee than that. DCF stood Gimpanzee for $30k year 1, Father Patrick for an obscene amount as well if I recall ($25-$30k maybe?) Had to back both down.
You may be right, but maybe they learned from those mistakes. Sweet Lou is bound to go up from 15k after this year. Can they justify Confederate's fee higher than Sweet Lou especially if he also ends up in Pa.? Ky. offers additional purse $$ for stallion residence coupled with the 180 days for mares. Downbytheseaside at 17.5 is overpriced but what other semi grand circuit sire is there in Ohio? Just think it's better to start lower and raise a fee, like Stay Hungry.
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For what it's worth, IMO Tall Dark Stranger offspring will rule for years to come.
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For what it's worth, IMO Tall Dark Stranger offspring will rule for years to come.
He's the obvious one so far to take over from Bettor's Delight. I looked at four today -- pretty impressive.
I liked them better than the Papi Rob's -- better temperament too -- one Papi Rob filly almost nailed me.
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sweet lou had 96 foals born for this years 2 yr olds.. 76 have started
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That is an extremely impressive stat. 79%. I would say 69% was good to very good.
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That is an extremely impressive stat. 79%. I would say 69% was good to very good.
Interestingly enough - Father Patrick and his son Greenshoe are at 78% and 75%, respectively. Pretty strong numbers for 2yo trotters.
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Should be a strong factor in keeping the yearling prices up.
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Interestingly enough - Father Patrick and his son Greenshoe are at 78% and 75%, respectively. Pretty strong numbers for 2yo trotters.
Father Patricks undersold what they were worth last year and Greenshoes oversold. Be interesting to see if the trend continues. Greenshoe needs a champion to emerge soon.
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Father Patricks undersold what they were worth last year and Greenshoes oversold. Be interesting to see if the trend continues. Greenshoe needs a champion to emerge soon.
Father Patrick’s are very hard to deal with. They don’t do well in most of the one size fits all barns. Good thing to watch for if a small guy that has patience and likes to sell
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Father Patrick’s are very hard to deal with. They don’t do well in most of the one size fits all barns. Good thing to watch for if a small guy that has patience and likes to sell
My take on them - they come to their speed quick but are a little soft on guts. They'll get you high on them and then when the rubber meets the road, they largely say "no thanks."
Obviously exceptions as he's had some really nice ones but just my observation.
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My take on them - they come to their speed quick but are a little soft on guts. They'll get you high on them and then when the rubber meets the road, they largely say "no thanks."
Obviously exceptions as he's had some really nice ones but just my observation.
They take a little patience getting started but yea they come to their speed quickly. Unfortunately in most barns that means they go way too much too soon and can get sour
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They take a little patience getting started but yea they come to their speed quickly. Unfortunately in most barns that means they go way too much too soon and can get sour
Yeah, they seem to get sour or too hot if you aren’t careful with them.