HORSEPLOP.COM
General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: SeattleSlew on July 08, 2023, 05:43:06 AM
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Great night to be better with confidence that many of the races will be "fair" to the players.
The new system for selecting posts for the Meadowlands Pace final will insure that all of the runners are motivated to more than just "slide in".. Those rules are below:
ELIMINATION TO FINAL POST POSITION DRAW
The premise of this system is to be fair to all participants and not penalize winners while at the same time
providing a competitive and interesting betting event.
Those stakes requiring a single elimination will have the winner draw from positions 1-6.
Those stakes requiring two eliminations (with the first 5 finishers advancing to the final field of
10) would have positions selected in the following manner:
• Winners would draw for posts one to six
• Second place finishers would draw for post seven and down, eliminating positions selected by the
winners
• Third place finishers would draw for post eight and down, eliminating positions already selected
• Fourth place finishers would draw for post nine and down, eliminating positions already selected
• Fifth place finishers would draw for the remaining positions
With that out of the way, here are some thoughts/selections for Saturday night:
Race 6: Meadowlands Pace Elimination 1
Yannick will almost certainly leave and do what Yannick does best.. steal a slow 2nd quarter.
Voukefalas will hopefully get a better drive from Stratton than the last two and will ride cover to the top of the stretch and then pull away (if Stratton doesn't "overdrive" him). Five qualifiers will be Voukefalas, Fulton, Cannibal and Combusion.
Race 8: Graduate Series Trot Final: Jiggy Jog S (happy to see Dexter rather than Ake); no other commentary necessary
Race 9: Graduate Series Pace Final: Dreamfair Arnie B
Race 10: Meadowlands Pace Elimination 2: Confederate (others making the elimination should be..Ammo, Stockade Seelster, El Rey and Christchurch
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look easy
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The Sweig and Steaks at Vermin Downs....12 15 post.
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Nobody wants post 1... you win and get post one not fair.....should pick your post if you win. fastest first etc......end of story
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Nobody wants post 1... you win and get post one not fair.....should pick your post if you win. fastest first etc......end of story
worst kept secret of all time.....post one is terrible at M1 and even worse at Mohawk. Huge penalty when others think the inside draw is a good thing.
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worst kept secret of all time.....post one is terrible at M1 and even worse at Mohawk. Huge penalty when others think the inside draw is a good thing.
They put the post position stats in the program every single race card.
It's not that big a secret.
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Nice night of racing tonight. Funny last night. Noel daley i believe 3 for three. He does that at times. First one that paid over $200 caught my attention because driven by karma. Vanderkamp used to drive a few for noel yrs ago and every once in a while noel would throw a live drive his way. Looked comparable.
Enjoy the racing. My two plays heaven s showgirl in 2nd and coachella bound a in 5th.
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Great night to be better with confidence that many of the races will be "fair" to the players.
The new system for selecting posts for the Meadowlands Pace final will insure that all of the runners are motivated to more than just "slide in".. Those rules are below:
ELIMINATION TO FINAL POST POSITION DRAW
The premise of this system is to be fair to all participants and not penalize winners while at the same time
providing a competitive and interesting betting event.
Those stakes requiring a single elimination will have the winner draw from positions 1-6.
Those stakes requiring two eliminations (with the first 5 finishers advancing to the final field of
10) would have positions selected in the following manner:
• Winners would draw for posts one to six
• Second place finishers would draw for post seven and down, eliminating positions selected by the
winners
• Third place finishers would draw for post eight and down, eliminating positions already selected
• Fourth place finishers would draw for post nine and down, eliminating positions already selected
• Fifth place finishers would draw for the remaining positions
With that out of the way, here are some thoughts/selections for Saturday night:
Race 6: Meadowlands Pace Elimination 1
Yannick will almost certainly leave and do what Yannick does best.. steal a slow 2nd quarter.
Voukefalas will hopefully get a better drive from Stratton than the last two and will ride cover to the top of the stretch and then pull away (if Stratton doesn't "overdrive" him). Five qualifiers will be Voukefalas, Fulton, Cannibal and Combusion.
Race 8: Graduate Series Trot Final: Jiggy Jog S (happy to see Dexter rather than Ake); no other commentary necessary
Race 9: Graduate Series Pace Final: Dreamfair Arnie B
Race 10: Meadowlands Pace Elimination 2: Confederate (others making the elimination should be..Ammo, Stockade Seelster, El Rey and Christchurch
The other side of the coin is all this makes the final a less appealing betting race
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Burke doesn’t just say shit to the media. Gung Ho will be on GO tonight.
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Are you going to post some of those easy picks?
ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
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1st - 7 Always B Billy 6,2,1
2nd - 6 Moneymakehersmile 3,5,9
3rd - 2 Whitecookie 5,4,1
4th - 3 Seeuinnashville A 6,4,5
5th - 2 Coachellabound N 8,7,3
Good Luck To All!!!!
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Why is Gary deleo dressed like the Riddler
And his clothes are always too big for him
ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
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good topic
i actually like the way the big m does it, not perfect but what is
here is why i like winners getting post 1-6 draw and not winners pick your post
you should not get rewarded twice for drawing a good post in a elim race
for example say 2 horses are comparable in a elim race, one has post 2 and the other post 9
the post 2 horse wins off a favourable trip and the post 9 horse finishes third
is it fair that the post 2 winner now gets to pick another favourable post for big money final
perhaps if their post positions in the elim were reversed their finish in elim might have been reversed
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Unless you're receiving rebates, it's not going to be easy to make money with this card.
race 6, #3 Fulton (7/5) looks best. #1 Voukefalas (6/5) will be seriously overbet, I can't see him beating #3.
race 7, #10 Allywag Hanover (7/5) got written into this race, he missed the the FFA event last week, it's not
easy to think he will bring his best effort here. #6 Captain Kirk (10/1) is a good one to use here, his form is
better than it looks. #9 Southwind Gendry (2/1) isn't the best horse here, this is a big underlay.
race 8, #1 Jiggy Jog S (1/5) will jog here.
race 9, #5 Stonebridge Helios (7/5) is slightly better than #4 Mad Max Hanover (2/1) This is a good race.
Pick 4, (races 6-9) 1,3 with 6 with 1 with 5
race 10, #1 Confederate (1/5) is much the best. #6 Christchurch is easily 2nd best.
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ngc3 what the fuck do the new rules matter at all. Sure if ur first you get your pick of posts, but being second doesnt mean ur going to be banished to the outside. Id still not use all the gas in my horse in a elim if im a lock to be in top 2 or 3. Does it really matter to confederate if he gets to be in the 4 5 or 6 hole in the final? I would want tk avoid 1 and 8 thru 10 though.
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Ever notice buccis horses seem to break more than other trainers. Even his pacers break a lot.
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Not as easy to win DD when race results arent preordained. Someone make sure ake didnt sneak into dexters gear - cus that was an ake like drive.
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Confederate looks tough to beat in pace. Have to wonder how much christchurch was softened up for final. JB s sustained pressure in blistering half understandably took its toll on takter horse who i thought showed remarkable resilience in not totally crumbling in stretch.
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And where exactly is gung ho
what a bunch of noise
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Joe B got schooled again. Terrible drive on Lyons Surfing absolutely gutted that poor horse
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Edison Hatter is an embarrassment to morning line oddsmakers
15-1 on Christchurch wtf
oh and Voukefalas deserves a real driver. He is going to lose a half million plus if they insist on a B track driver handling the reins
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Edison Hatter is an embarrassment to morning line oddsmakers
15-1 on Christchurch wtf
oh and Voukefalas deserves a real driver. He is going to lose a half million plus if they insist on a B track driver handling the reins
tmbz1 tmbz1 tmbz1
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Confederate 1.47.3 last Q 27.2 wrapped up last sixteenth have fun beating him in the final! They won't!
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Confederate 1.47.3 last Q 27.2 wrapped up last sixteenth have fun beating him in the final! They won't!
Definitely impressive and I thought El Rey looked impressive coming through some bottlenecks and flying at the end. I can't believe that the owners were very happy with the drive JB gave. All emotion and no "finesse".. to say the least. Amazing that both Burke and Svanstedt give him catch drives at all. (JUST MY OPINION).
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Total agreement here! Minus the connections, Joey Bongiorno, to me, is no better or worse, than say a Jimmy Marohn Jr.
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Total agreement here! Minus the connections, Joey Bongiorno, to me, is no better or worse, than say a Jimmy Marohn Jr.
Every once in a while he drives well, but I agree he totally sucks!
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More skillful drivers must cringe in big races to have him with cheap (for grand circuit level) speed to the far outside. He is certainly capable of disrusrupting a major event. With huge $ on line for breeding accolades, owners must quiver to see if he'll flush all their hopes down the drain with questionable decision making. Wouldnt mind if it was a was a onetine mistake but with jb seems to occur far too often - doesnt adhere to reasonable standards other top drivers seem to use. Very willing to fuck up a race with a snowball chance in hell move. Id categorize it as a callous disregard for others. Even on ur inside he's a wild card. Pros cant like that.
Yrs ago was playing poker all night with friends. @ 4 in am were semi exhausted in the midst of the biggest pot of night when a goofy friend dealing cards in a stud game lays out the joker card to a player right at a key point of the game. Joe is that joker card.
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Did nothing wrong..took a shot left gate .normally give and go..did not happen...that's racing
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confederate got about as perfect trip as you could get
he should have looked good , drifted out from rail without engaging in speed, sat to after the half, pulled and circled exhausted front end horses and won handily, (although i dont think he wanted that wire much further away)
likely wont be as easy saturday
although i do agree he is clearly the horse to beat and should be the clear favorite
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Perfect trip elim winners should be easy bet-against in the final as favorites
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I guess shutting him down last 8th doesn't count
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I guess shutting him down last 8th doesn't count
With Christchurch beat up, Jamieson breaking and el Rey nowhere, he should have been wrapped up in that spot. Not sure i would say he responded when asked late, however.
This is pari-mutuel gambling game, if you want to take odds on favorites off very easy trips against a better, more competitive field,
You have be right way more often than you're wrong to make it long term
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All I'm saying is that they were closing in on him st wire because he was shut down..could have win by 5...he will be fav.abd should be...it's a horse race and anyone can win...but I would not puck anyone else...by the way I was all over other division winner...got great great set up but one convincingly
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Even if he won by 5 (I don't agree,he was pretty much all out when tetrick asked him), betting him back off that sweet trip at maybe 2/5, 1/2, 3/5 against a better group is a losing long term strategy. Picking him to win if gambling wasn't involved and you simply want to say you picked the winner? Yeah, I guess I would pick him too. But, isn't this a gambling game?
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Im going cold exacta confederate fulton and saver triple confeferate, el rey fulton. Dunn must be jumping off lindas hirse to drive cannibal. Could be some banging here too; sometimes is in these ngc3. Fulton might luck into a decent trip - but i think a little value. Takter winner is improving though and wouldnt be a surprise. As a fan, im looking forward to race. Wont be a serious wager for me.
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Dunn is driving Fulton
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1 Fulton Dunn
2 Voukefalas Stratton
3 Christchurch Gingras
4 Cannibal A. Mccarthy
5 Confederate Tetrick
6 Hungry Angel Boy T. McCarthy
7 El Rey Zeron
8 Its A Me Mario Tritton
9 Ammo D. Miller
10 Save America Kakaley
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And thus info came from where?
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No surprise the bouncy, bouncy guy isn’t down to drive. 'However, I hate to say this but I’d rather he was driving in place of one other driver. Some owners are very loyal…..
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And thus info came from where?
I was just guessing, let's see how many I get right.
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All I'm saying is that they were closing in on him st wire because he was shut down..could have win by 5...he will be fav.abd should be...it's a horse race and anyone can win...but I would not puck anyone else...by the way I was all over other division winner...got great great set up but one convincingly
He was toast. He was walking across the line and not "shut down" He was exhausted and done. Everyone in that race seen it. Timmy grabbed him to make it look good but he was finished.
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He was toast. He was walking across the line and not "shut down" He was exhausted and done. Everyone in that race seen it. Timmy grabbed him to make it look good but he was finished.
I'd love to be "finished" like that 100 hundred times out of 100. Tetrick was motionless through the entire stretch in a 27.2 last quarter, his 27 flat, off 20.1 fractions. Easily measured, close enough second over and exploding off cover to win for fun. Will be overbet in the final though, with all contenders inside. Should be a great race.
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He was toast. He was walking across the line and not "shut down" He was exhausted and done. Everyone in that race seen it. Timmy grabbed him to make it look good but he was finished.
It's hard for most gamblers to allow themselves to see any holes in big chalk
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It's hard for most gamblers to allow themselves to see any holes in big chalk
This is true! Im more of a bomber than chalk player but its hard to toss a horse that on paper looks much best. I had to convince myself yrs ago that tossing a chalky favorite is like an investment for a bettor. Its like bluffing in poker. Sure youll get stung but the loss is immaterial. 1 bluff a night pays off way more when you have "the nuts" in a kater hand.
That said; races like the pace are way more formful. Pelling is as sharp a trainer as there is in game. Im betting the race funny i think. Im playing pelling over toscano for a small amt to me. In my horizontals, im splitting my plays. Ill use fulton, canibal and el rey with a few logical contenders . Confederate i may also use defensively but only if i can single a 9/2 or better play in another leg. I really need saturdays program to finalize my strategy.
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No surprise the bouncy, bouncy guy isn’t down to drive. 'However, I hate to say this but I’d rather he was driving in place of one other driver. Some owners are very loyal…..
There are a few horses in this race that could get beneficial driver improvements.
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When do M1 make the cheap Past Performances available on the website?
Thx
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re Joe Bongo drive...
There's only 2 trips you can give a big longshot a chance at making the final...
1. Leave like he did, trip out close to the front and hope the pace is slow
2. Take back, never ever leave the rail, trip out and hope the front end collapses.
I don't blame him for trying.