Author Topic: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have  (Read 3256 times)

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SeattleSlew

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Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« on: September 10, 2023, 05:13:15 AM »
George Carlin had a fun routine about airplanes.  You are really not "on" the plane, you are IN the plane.  Also, when there is a "near miss" between two planes it was really a "NEAR HIT."

Well, I have always owned mid-to-upper level "raceway" trotters (only one or two pacers along the way.)  I always am scouring On-Gait, Preferred Equine Online etc. (since I am now on the West Coast and not able to do my own direct scouting.)  My targets are typically solid, 3 or 4 year olds who are just below top level in state sire stakes, and (from my observation through RTN etc.) seem like they could develop into the trotters who could race in the mid/mid-upper levels of major (Meadowlands, Yonkers, Hoosier, Woodbine) track aged condition trots.  Many trainers have helped me along the way, and when I was back in the tri-state area, I would often sit behind them myself (if the owner was comfortable with that.)

During July there was a horse, Grand Revival, whom I spent a huge amount of time researching, as he was listed to On-Gait.  I watched every one of his races on RTN.  I was able to reach out to a few "locals" for feedback and was certainly a "live" bidder.  I went to about $55,000.  He was strong, good-gaited and seemed sound.  The feedback I received was positive.  I was not as "excited" for the possibility of BIG $$ from the Ohio Sire Stakes, although he was sitting at #5 at the time.  He ultimately went for over $70,000 to Jeff Faught and several other owners (including one from Brooklyn, NY... so my being on the West Coast was no further away!!).  Steve Carter now trains him and today he HANDILY won the $300,000  Scarlet 3 yo Trot at Scioto.

Congratulations to all of the connections, as they have done a great job with the horse, and he now sits in my "could have, would have, should have" set of horses....perhaps near the top!!

The Exporter

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Re: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2023, 08:40:48 AM »
The famous Plopster, The I Doctor is a partner. Congratulations, I man.

Generation XYZ

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Re: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2023, 09:15:41 AM »
That would have been a great buy. I'm sure alot of us have the same sentiments Could Have - Would have -Should have. But certainly agree congrats to those new connections.
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JIDGE

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Re: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2023, 10:28:31 AM »
George Carlin had a fun routine about airplanes.  You are really not "on" the plane, you are IN the plane.  Also, when there is a "near miss" between two planes it was really a "NEAR HIT."

Well, I have always owned mid-to-upper level "raceway" trotters (only one or two pacers along the way.)  I always am scouring On-Gait, Preferred Equine Online etc. (since I am now on the West Coast and not able to do my own direct scouting.)  My targets are typically solid, 3 or 4 year olds who are just below top level in state sire stakes, and (from my observation through RTN etc.) seem like they could develop into the trotters who could race in the mid/mid-upper levels of major (Meadowlands, Yonkers, Hoosier, Woodbine) track aged condition trots.  Many trainers have helped me along the way, and when I was back in the tri-state area, I would often sit behind them myself (if the owner was comfortable with that.)

During July there was a horse, Grand Revival, whom I spent a huge amount of time researching, as he was listed to On-Gait.  I watched every one of his races on RTN.  I was able to reach out to a few "locals" for feedback and was certainly a "live" bidder.  I went to about $55,000.  He was strong, good-gaited and seemed sound.  The feedback I received was positive.  I was not as "excited" for the possibility of BIG $$ from the Ohio Sire Stakes, although he was sitting at #5 at the time.  He ultimately went for over $70,000 to Jeff Faught and several other owners (including one from Brooklyn, NY... so my being on the West Coast was no further away!!).  Steve Carter now trains him and today he HANDILY won the $300,000  Scarlet 3 yo Trot at Scioto.

Congratulations to all of the connections, as they have done a great job with the horse, and he now sits in my "could have, would have, should have" set of horses....perhaps near the top!!

If I may ask -- since you're on the west coast do you have someone physically check the horse for you or do you just rely on integrity (eg. soundness) or possible viewing another live race (if available) before the sale ends?
« Last Edit: September 10, 2023, 11:17:48 AM by JIDGE »

SeattleSlew

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Re: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2023, 10:11:08 PM »
If it is on the East Coast or up in Canada, I have someone who will go and check out the horse (although they may not be allowed to sit behind him/her.)  I will also call the phone number provided to speak with the trainer (in most cases and/or owner in other cases.)  I always go back and check out EVERY race since they stepped on the racetrack (RTN) and watch closely (equipment, how handled, trainer changes etc.) I have only purchased three since I moved West and the last one was 4 years ago, so now it is just one at a time as I clearly don't get as much enjoyment not being able to watch in person.  For the three that were purchased they all turned out to be "as advertised" physically!!

JIDGE

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Re: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2023, 01:18:32 AM »
If it is on the East Coast or up in Canada, I have someone who will go and check out the horse (although they may not be allowed to sit behind him/her.)  I will also call the phone number provided to speak with the trainer (in most cases and/or owner in other cases.)  I always go back and check out EVERY race since they stepped on the racetrack (RTN) and watch closely (equipment, how handled, trainer changes etc.) I have only purchased three since I moved West and the last one was 4 years ago, so now it is just one at a time as I clearly don't get as much enjoyment not being able to watch in person.  For the three that were purchased they all turned out to be "as advertised" physically!!

Thanks. There's one on ongait.com now NOVEL that fits your criteria. Very competitive in the Commonwealth series at the Red Mile -- a notch below top stakes company.

SeattleSlew

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Re: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2023, 02:35:56 AM »
Part of his ultimate price will be the "helium" of an expected piece of the purse in the Commonwealth $100k.  He raced decently today, but between Dexter/Alagna, looking at all of his races to date, he really can't be "used" and "urged" very much.  They have protected him and he has never raced on any other track but Oak Grove and/or Red Mile and with some spacing between many of his starts.  He won his first two races, out of the box, last year at the Red Mile, but he went through a few races after where he was either bobbly in the stretch or broke.  He also, curiously (for a large track) seems to go a bit wider in the turns than he should need to.  I will pass BUT genuinely appreciate the suggestion.  Yes, he has quite a few elements of the profile I am looking for and hasn't been cut, does not wear "pants" and is not on Lasix (all of which are areas of possible improvement and two of which make it a bit easier for both a trainer and owner.)  There were formerly more of those types available coming out after their 3 yo. seasons from the large "factories" after their primary stakes earnings season was completed.   Again THANK YOU.

JIDGE

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Re: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2023, 09:11:39 AM »
I'm in the market for the same criteria but for a 3yr. pacing filly. With the stakes winding down there will be a number of horses that hit the market in the next couple of months online and of course at Harrisburg and the Blooded horse sale. Many will be from the top barns. And yes they are trying to get every cent out of the sale price by selling before the final. Ky does not allow lasix for stake races.

SeattleSlew

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Re: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2023, 06:40:59 PM »
I'm in the market for the same criteria but for a 3yr. pacing filly. With the stakes winding down there will be a number of horses that hit the market in the next couple of months online and of course at Harrisburg and the Blooded horse sale. Many will be from the top barns. And yes they are trying to get every cent out of the sale price by selling before the final. Ky does not allow lasix for stake races.

Do you want to breed?  I have noticed a significant premium (over standard racehorse value) for fillies, if they are decently bred, as they discount some future breeding value.  The issue is less important with trotters, where the filly trotters seem almost at a "par" to their male counterparts on the racetrack, but by buying a filly pacer, you are giving up some relative performance on the track in exchange for that residual value? 

JIDGE

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Re: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2023, 11:01:19 PM »
Do you want to breed?  I have noticed a significant premium (over standard racehorse value) for fillies, if they are decently bred, as they discount some future breeding value.  The issue is less important with trotters, where the filly trotters seem almost at a "par" to their male counterparts on the racetrack, but by buying a filly pacer, you are giving up some relative performance on the track in exchange for that residual value?

Yes. I'm in Ky. I'm looking for 3yr. old race fillies who are competitive -- preferably with a 2yr old record and a 3yr. old record 53 or better. Strong maternal family. No breathing or throat issues. I've been the underbidder on a few this past month. I'd like to race through their 4yr old year season and breed at five. I've seen some decent/well bred fillies that are not worth paying a training bill on go for 25-40K. If I'm gonna spend 40k I might as well buy a young well bred mare with a record, in foal.  There's a well bred Sweet Lou on there now that seems to enjoy suckalong miles and she'll probably go for well over 40k -- with no real value as a racehorse. I can get her, but then I have to get a maiden mare in foal, and if I race her perhaps lose money.

JIDGE

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Re: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2023, 09:12:45 PM »
Part of his ultimate price will be the "helium" of an expected piece of the purse in the Commonwealth $100k.  He raced decently today, but between Dexter/Alagna, looking at all of his races to date, he really can't be "used" and "urged" very much.  They have protected him and he has never raced on any other track but Oak Grove and/or Red Mile and with some spacing between many of his starts.  He won his first two races, out of the box, last year at the Red Mile, but he went through a few races after where he was either bobbly in the stretch or broke.  He also, curiously (for a large track) seems to go a bit wider in the turns than he should need to.  I will pass BUT genuinely appreciate the suggestion.  Yes, he has quite a few elements of the profile I am looking for and hasn't been cut, does not wear "pants" and is not on Lasix (all of which are areas of possible improvement and two of which make it a bit easier for both a trainer and owner.)  There were formerly more of those types available coming out after their 3 yo. seasons from the large "factories" after their primary stakes earnings season was completed.   Again THANK YOU.

Colt sold for $ 61,500

SeattleSlew

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Re: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2023, 02:08:37 AM »
Thx.  Definitely too much optimism baked into that price.  Check our Tuesday's 5th race at Pocono.  #8 horse (Evil Guy) was in for $33,750.  He was a Burke stable purchase a few months ago out of Canada (probably selected for fitting certain conditions that he has now won his way out of.)  He looked great on the track, and jogged to an easy win from the outside post-position (only 8 in the race) .  This was his 3rd straight win in the class and I am sure Burke will throw him right back out there.  (no Lasix, no hopples).  He left hard out of the 8 (Allard driving) made the top at the quarter, clocked in 27.1  Took them to the half in 56 (unurged), popped the plugs at the 3/4 in 1:24.2 and was home with minimal encouragement in 1:53.2  Looked sound, simply-rigged (with burred headpole left side).  Also went around the turns in a way which would lead one to believe that he might do well on a 1/2 miler.  4 year-old gelding with 20 starts.  If you have RTN take a look, Sept. 12 5th race, Pocono Downs.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2023, 02:50:58 AM by SeattleSlew »

JIDGE

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Re: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2023, 01:22:01 PM »
Interesting he put him in for 27k (guaranteed an outside post) and now next week he's in for 30k (37,500 with allowance) Is he trying to protect him?  He definitely won easy enough (measured) with a great time --certainly looks like he has no issues (turns, etc.) Burke knows how to classify one -- won himself out of the n/w 4 then he gave him one shot in Philly then into a claimer. He wins again where do you take him -- or just leave him in the claimer? I don't know what he paid but I'm sure he's out on the horse already.  Question is do you want to step up and pay the extra?  Also, do you want to claim (buy) off of Burke?  I know he sells a bunch online, never really tracked how people do after the purchase. That Sweet Lou filly I mentioned in an earlier post sold for 70k to Vieux Carre farm -- unbelievable.

JIDGE

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Re: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2023, 12:28:16 AM »
Thx.  Definitely too much optimism baked into that price.  Check our Tuesday's 5th race at Pocono.  #8 horse (Evil Guy) was in for $33,750.  He was a Burke stable purchase a few months ago out of Canada (probably selected for fitting certain conditions that he has now won his way out of.)  He looked great on the track, and jogged to an easy win from the outside post-position (only 8 in the race) .  This was his 3rd straight win in the class and I am sure Burke will throw him right back out there.  (no Lasix, no hopples).  He left hard out of the 8 (Allard driving) made the top at the quarter, clocked in 27.1  Took them to the half in 56 (unurged), popped the plugs at the 3/4 in 1:24.2 and was home with minimal encouragement in 1:53.2  Looked sound, simply-rigged (with burred headpole left side).  Also went around the turns in a way which would lead one to believe that he might do well on a 1/2 miler.  4 year-old gelding with 20 starts.  If you have RTN take a look, Sept. 12 5th race, Pocono Downs.

I see this one was claimed off Burke his next start by Hunter Oakes.

SeattleSlew

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Re: Near Miss-Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2023, 12:40:51 AM »
Yes,  I was watching the race closely and the horse was somewhat lethargic; however, I am sure he will be eating "energy bars" in the new barn.   Ownership group bought quite a few that had been racing in Canada these past 4-6 months (this being one of them).  Weaver has a great eye for temporary "market inefficiencies"...

 

shout out

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