Lexington and Timonium(HB) sales

[Here they come]

How much of a hit will the sales take this year with purse structures
Dropping and concerns going foward not knowing what future will hold
Regarding pandemic and repercussions.

[horses first]

Tough to say if they take a 15% hit...based on the last 5 years I think they will manage. Does a Biden win scare horse buyers if casinos fear a future shutdown? 50% occupancy seems like it hasn't bothered some casino profits. If this is a one off meaning a vaccine is here by winter or next spring then things should be ok. Problem is state budgets in disarray? Sire stakes in most states seem like they didn't take much of a hit and there were certain GC states cut but owners will have money to spend. Markets have come back and smart market participants used the opportunity to buy a V recovery in the market. No reason to ever spend 1.0mln dollars on a standardbred so I suspect we won't be seeing that!

[The Exporter]

If the recent Blooded Horse mixed sale is any indication, there will be a reduced demand for all. I am not comparing the quality of theis sale vs. Lexington or Harrisburg, just the fact the Blooded sale was less than half the numbers of the previous year.

[COUNSELOR]

NOT SO SURE I AGREE WITH THESE COMMENTS.   BEING A WALL STREET VETERAN OF OVER 45 YEARS----I HAVE NEVER SEEN SO MANY CLIENTS MAKE THE MONEY THAT THEY HAVE MADE IN 2020 DUE TO THE EXTREME VOLATILITY.   RECALL THAT SECTION 179 OF THE IRS CODE ENABLES THE INVESTOR OF QUALIFIED LIVESTOCK THE ABILITY TO WRITEOFF 100% OF PURCHASE IN YEAR ONE.    FURTHER, THE VOLATILITY WHETHER TRUMP OR BIDEN WINS--IS WHAT CREATES THE HUGE PROFITS.   RECALL THE MAKET HAS GONE FROM THE HIGHS IN FEBRUARY TO THE LOWS IN MARCH AND A SHARP V SHAPED RECOVERY SINCE THEN AND SO MANY HAVE PROFITED MILLIONS.   I AM NOT SURE IF THESE ARE STANDARDBRED OWNERS BUT I AM SURE THAT A HUGE AMOUNT OF WEALTH HAS ACCUMULATED IN 2020.    SCARY MONEY!

THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS THE RICH GETTING RICHER AND THE POOR STAYING POOR!   THE TOP END CAN AND WILL BUY ANY QUALITY OUT THERE.   IT IS NOT AN EQUAL REDISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH BUT ADDITIONAL WEALTH TO THE WEALTHY.

I AM FAIRLY SURE THAT THERE WILL BE LESS NEW MONEY IN THE GAME BUT MORE OLD MONEY COMING BACK AS THERE ARE FEWER HORSES AND OWNERS TO COMPETE.   A FAIRLY WEALTHY INDIVIDUAL CAN NOW MAKE A DENT VERY EASILY IN THE MARKETPLACE WITH A FEW MILLION DOLLARS WHICH IS NOTHING TODAY.

FURTHER , WITH INTEREST RATE AT ALL TIME LOWS AND EQUITY IN HOMES AND OTHER REAL ESTATE GROWING IN DOUBLE DIGITS THESE IS PLENTY OF CASH ON THE SIDELINES AT CHEAP RATES.

I AM RELUCTANT TO SAY I PERSONALLY DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL BE AS BAD AS MANY THINK.

[The Exporter]

"I AM FAIRLY SURE THAT THERE WILL BE LESS NEW MONEY IN THE GAME BUT MORE OLD MONEY COMING BACK AS THERE ARE FEWER HORSES AND OWNERS TO COMPETE"
Agreed. Also, there will be less horses bred and the contraction of the entire game will continue.

[horses first]

Recently Sweden sale was actually a 1,000 dollars over the previous year sale so basically even. The break in the US dollar may give foreign buyers a bump but I haven't followed what the rate with the currency in CDN and Sweden. I think the rule a good horses will still bring top dollar...while the middle slumps. There are more horses at Lex this year with more regional horses to sell on day 5. A Biden win will have a future issue for buying horse flesh lowering the amount of the small business threshold and getting away from the 100% write off that Counselor mentions. Yes, option traders killed it this year with volatility and it only took a few months to do so. Whether the sales are off 0,5,10,or 15% the breeders will take that because months ago it looked like it could have been crushing. I think they are more worried about closed borders and not having the eyeballs at the sale. The Swedes may not make the trip if racing can't be viewed live. Canadians needing to quarantine when they cross back over. IL had their yearling sale yesterday and it wasn't as bad as it could have been with the ongoing slot issue of waiting and new issue of Arlington probably forgoing dates leaving Hawthorne to take the summer dates leaving harness racing without a track? The sale could have been drastically worse but it wasn't buyers showed up.

[augustaandy]

down 20% or more