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General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: caddy on January 23, 2019, 02:12:14 PM
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Among the 10 or so ideas that the Dist. 1 board reviewed last w/e is a suggestion to allow horses that draw outside to draw inside in their next race from a random draw for post 1 - 5. Conversely, horses w/ an inside post will draw outside in their next race from a random draw for posts 6 - 10. About time there's a procedure in place instead of constantly penalizing horses by using the lo-tech / no-tech algorithm program of the USTA. It's certain that horses on the outside are dramatically disadvantaged. If there's a genuine basis to work toward fairness for all of the horses, well - why do they even need to debate it? This logic is so overdue that it really oughta be set to motion tomorrow !
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Then people will complain they always draw the outside of what is possible in both draws.
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truth of the matter is
if you cant take the variance of post positions,
then you shouldnt be in the horse business
in the long run
it doesnt matter
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truth of the matter is
if you cant take the variance of post positions,
then you shouldnt be in the horse business
in the long run
it doesnt matter
Exactly!
Bravissimo!
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The problem with your logic is you're assuming the draw is honest.
oh well in that case ::) ::) ::)
i thought the thread was referring to post positions strictly
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what bugs me the most is when elim winners pick posts
if elim races are made easy on the best horses or 2 horses in the division most of the time
why should we punish the under dogs and make it a higher chance they need more luck in the final by drawing a shitty post?
most of the time you will be the underdog anyways so the majority should be for getting rid of this rule/privilege
just my opinion
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what bugs me the most is when elim winners pick posts
if elim races are made easy on the best horses or 2 horses in the division most of the time
why should we punish the under dogs and make it a higher chance they need more luck in the final by drawing a shitty post?
most of the time you will be the underdog anyways so the majority should be for getting rid of this rule/privilege
just my opinion
The only thing sillier than people complaining about Elim races being unbettable is that people in power listen to the complaints and make ridiculous rules in response.
Nobody remembers or cares who wins a 25k elim the week before a 500k final.
Those are trivia questions.
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doesn't make logical sense.
draw the race.
or
assign each position by fastest time from previous race. fastest time get assigned the outside. slowest get the rail. and so forth.
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doesn't make logical sense.
draw the race.
or
assign each position by fastest time from previous race. fastest time get assigned the outside. slowest get the rail. and so forth.
I agree. Your solution would be better for bettors too.
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Franky ..... Fastest time of a race isn't nearly as important as how a race developed and what kind of trip a horse got.
There has to be an easy way to audit and ensure the random program being used for post positions isn't rigged. Remove the concern about it being rigged and a truly random draw will balance out for any horse over time.
If your goal is to balance the opportunity for an owner to make money over a shorter period of time, handing out the post position based on the horses post position in the previous race may make some sense, but what do you do with a horse dropping down after having the 9 hole in the higher class. Do you still give them 1 - 5, even though they may already be the favourite in this lower class.
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Frankly ..... Fastest time of a race isn't nearly as important as how a race developed and what kind of trip a horse got.
There has to be an easy way to audit and ensure the random program being used for post positions isn't rigged. Remove the concern about it being rigged and a truly random draw will balance out for any horse over time.
If your goal is to balance the opportunity for an owner to make money over a shorter period of time, handing out the post position based on the horses post position in the previous race may make some sense, but what do you do with a horse dropping down after having the 9 hole in the higher class. Do you still give them 1 - 5, even though they may already be the favourite in this lower class.
point is on point <> if you're only on a fast turn-over, then it is likely and possible that a specific horse may draw outside for 4 - 6 races, then move along to a different owner and draw inside for a spell. I, personally, have calculated on a full year sample size; and, it does not necessarily even out ... so, that is an incorrect basis. What is certain is that the outside post positions score poorer than inside. That's an issue and instead of the typical, lazy avoidance - the problem should be addressed. In a sophisticated technological age, why is this sport still operating like 1959 when there are methods to set a culture of fairness
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Caddy ... With your data from a year, what was the final % 1 - 5 vs 6 - 10 ?
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Franky ..... Fastest time of a race isn't nearly as important as how a race developed and what kind of trip a horse got.
There has to be an easy way to audit and ensure the random program being used for post positions isn't rigged. Remove the concern about it being rigged and a truly random draw will balance out for any horse over time.
If your goal is to balance the opportunity for an owner to make money over a shorter period of time, handing out the post position based on the horses post position in the previous race may make some sense, but what do you do with a horse dropping down after having the 9 hole in the higher class. Do you still give them 1 - 5, even though they may already be the favourite in this lower class.
listen. if you read my post, i said it wasnt logical. but you could have draw (as it is currently). or go by fastest time. fuck all your handcapping bullshit. final time is final time. the rest of it is excuses. bad drive. bad trip. gimme a fuckin break.
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Franky .... relax. I'm a terrible handicapper, but if you talk to real ones, I think they would say it isn't the most important criteria. Hell, if it was we would all be retired with a home on the beach and a servant named Calhoun. Sorry if i hurt your feelings.
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How about post positions assigned based on earnings last 5 starts.
they fix races now based on earnings last 5 starts
how bad do you think it'll be if it's also based on post?
11.mq
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Wow! I always enjoy Wiggles positive posts.
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Among the 10 or so ideas that the Dist. 1 board reviewed last w/e is a suggestion to allow horses that draw outside to draw inside in their next race from a random draw for post 1 - 5. Conversely, horses w/ an inside post will draw outside in their next race from a random draw for posts 6 - 10. About time there's a procedure in place instead of constantly penalizing horses by using the lo-tech / no-tech algorithm program of the USTA. It's certain that horses on the outside are dramatically disadvantaged. If there's a genuine basis to work toward fairness for all of the horses, well - why do they even need to debate it? This logic is so overdue that it really oughta be set to motion tomorrow !
i was at a district meeting
we shot this down faster than any other rule change talked about
in face we went as far as to ask why people still even brought it up its ridicoulous
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The reason it is brought up is the fact that many including myself think that at times, the draw is rigged. Ask some people that race at Yonkers and get back to me.
Yes there was the fact that Banca kept drawing the 1-4 at an unbelievable clip
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Caddy ... With your data from a year, what was the final % 1 - 5 vs 6 - 10 ?
on the horse that I actually recorded pp on for better than a year .. his avg. post position was a 7.
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i was at a district meeting
we shot this down faster than any other rule change talked about
in face we went as far as to ask why people still even brought it up its ridicoulous
if you're so inflexible and disinterested on debating toward the betterment of the sport -- you're not doing a representative job. So ? why bother to not serve? You call RIDICULOUS <> what's ridiculous is continuing a flawed system ... and it is flawed .. if you don't understand technology - or - have some craving to cling to an out of date methodology -- your time has passed by
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i was at a district meeting
we shot this down faster than any other rule change talked about
in face we went as far as to ask why people still even brought it up its ridicoulous
purple it doesn't surprise me that you guys would look at it as ridiculous. it's a fair subject consider the other bullshit that the usta does and doesn't do. the usta has trouble trying to vote on which scent of toilet paper to buy. gimme a fucking break!
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if you're so inflexible and disinterested on debating toward the betterment of the sport -- you're not doing a representative job. So ? why bother to not serve? You call RIDICULOUS <> what's ridiculous is continuing a flawed system ... and it is flawed .. if you don't understand technology - or - have some craving to cling to an out of date methodology -- your time has passed by
there is 1000000000 more important things than this to worry about
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if you're so inflexible and disinterested on debating toward the betterment of the sport -- you're not doing a representative job. So ? why bother to not serve? You call RIDICULOUS <> what's ridiculous is continuing a flawed system ... and it is flawed .. if you don't understand technology - or - have some craving to cling to an out of date methodology -- your time has passed by
i do the draws at the tracks...its not flawed
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Remember you heard it here first. Why not have everyone bet via a program number (chosen alphabetically maybe). Freeze betting. Let actual final odds appear on the tote so no one can accuse of past posting. THEN have an open draw in front of the public for post positions, and then start the race.
Intetesting idea but pps are part of handicapping
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Among the 10 or so ideas that the Dist. 1 board reviewed last w/e is a suggestion to allow horses that draw outside to draw inside in their next race from a random draw for post 1 - 5. Conversely, horses w/ an inside post will draw outside in their next race from a random draw for posts 6 - 10. About time there's a procedure in place instead of constantly penalizing horses by using the lo-tech / no-tech algorithm program of the USTA. It's certain that horses on the outside are dramatically disadvantaged. If there's a genuine basis to work toward fairness for all of the horses, well - why do they even need to debate it? This logic is so overdue that it really oughta be set to motion tomorrow !
Seriously, did you not get to lead the line enough in elementary school? It all evens out
Why create a problem where their isnt one?
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Seriously, did you not get to lead the line enough in elementary school? It all evens out
Why create a problem where their isnt one?
HAHAHA > Truthfully! I hated leading the line for fear I might forget the route to the cafeteria !
In seriousness - you've listened to the untrue blather that it all evens out - shame on you for perpetuating this falsehood - and, if you really are in a position of oversight on drawing the post positions ... you should resign today * it only evens out, whatever the hell that means? - if the same owner continuously has ownership on a specific horse - it most assuredly does not 'even out' if the horse is owned on a smaller sample size. Instead of clinging to the outmoded manipulation of pill bottles, decks of cards and marbles as legit ways to set a race, why not utilize a random sampler software program (that's a program that would run on a computer) or consider the suggestions of many people to use a data point as to recent earnings or last race position - and, factor in that information. Is that just too complicated? is narrowing the field down and then assigning start slots based on an agreed on criteria to even the field just so damned unreasonable? This nonsense of acting like it's 1969 is just unacceptable in a modern day and age .... now, if you are in charge of picking the posts for some race in a cornfield or unsophisticated backwoods fun and grins racing, then go with what you know. BUT!!! the sport has become big, BIG, big money w/ the injection of cash from the casino VGTs - so, stop fighting the advancement to legit racing - or - you and all the other out of touch statue quo-ers will end up going right back in time * except, the state assigned purse money won't be going with you.
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Remember you heard it here first. Why not have everyone bet via a program number (chosen alphabetically maybe). Freeze betting. Let actual final odds appear on the tote so no one can accuse of past posting. THEN have an open draw in front of the public for post positions, and then start the race.
tmbz1 tmbz1 tmbz1
Its really not a terrible idea, would make it interesting, although that would make it a little more like a roulette wheel. It would prevent horses from being 2/5 in every other race. Maybe use that for a few races a night which would again be randomly chosen. It would be worth a shot/ Probably not easy to set that up, but doing the same old, same old, certainly aint helping.
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Remember you heard it here first. Why not have everyone bet via a program number (chosen alphabetically maybe). Freeze betting. Let actual final odds appear on the tote so no one can accuse of past posting. THEN have an open draw in front of the public for post positions, and then start the race.
pretty sure any owner or trainer can go watch any draw live if they wish?
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pretty sure any owner or trainer can go watch any draw live if they wish?
this is true
just an example of someone making a problem where there isnt one
get a bad post deal with it...it happens to everyone
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Anyone who thinks that judges don't screw certain people with the draw is naive. There were times that I wished I could place a bet on getting the 8 post. I've had judges make inferences to the fact that it was given not drawn. Even if your there all they need to do is mark your entry and turn it when the 8 pill is drawn.
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USE LOTTERY TYPE MACHINE FOR DRAWS AND QUIT CRYIN ABOUT A TRADITIONALLY ACCEPTED PART OF A CONTEST.
FUCKIN HANDICAPPERS WANT YOU TO PICK THE WINNERS FOR THEM TOO ngc3
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3 pages of sobbing over post draws.
ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
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3 pages of sobbing over post draws.
ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
tmbz1 tmbz1 tmbz1 tmbz1 tmbz1
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Not if they're in a different state, at work,etc.
That’s their.m choice
What I’m sayin is
No one is stopping them from watching if they wish
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The post draw I have seen is a person sitting on their own, using a computer program. That is the easiest thing in the world to rig and watching someone push enter isn't going to prove anything. There has to be a process for ensuring the program being used is totally variable and the security of that program beyond reproach.
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Let the USTA do the draws
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what bugs me the most is when elim winners pick posts
if elim races are made easy on the best horses or 2 horses in the division most of the time
why should we punish the under dogs and make it a higher chance they need more luck in the final by drawing a shitty post?
most of the time you will be the underdog anyways so the majority should be for getting rid of this rule/privilege
just my opinion
guaranteed to make many elins unbettable
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guaranteed to make many elins unbettable
people complain about that now anyways
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I would like to see first five with noses on the gate and post 6 on behind them in second tier
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I would like to see first five with noses on the gate and post 6 on behind them in second tier
you cause me to pause and think > the limitations in the paddock stalls restricts number of horses racing on any given night. could be that there should/could be more races with smaller fields *** heck, there are nights when Northfield / OHIO has like 16 races. That would/could be a way to eliminate those further outside 7 - 8 - 9 slots and allow all of the posts to be closer in
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you cause me to pause and think > the limitations in the paddock stalls restricts number of horses racing on any given night. could be that there should/could be more races with smaller fields *** heck, there are nights when Northfield / OHIO has like 16 races. That would/could be a way to eliminate those further outside 7 - 8 - 9 slots and allow all of the posts to be closer in
it would be more fair and at the same time make the races more exciting. you would really have to jockey for a spot, not just the usually tug and drop in