HORSEPLOP.COM
General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: Harness Stats on August 02, 2020, 06:13:51 PM
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On July 17th the morning line maker made Lindy The Great 12 to 1 in the morning line off of a huge close in the Cutler the week before for 3rd. He went off the favorite at 2 to 1 and ended up 2nd to Run Director's huge mile. When interviewed on the show he said that made the morning line so high because he thought that the horse would be overbet. What is the logic in that? Isin't the morning line supposed to reflect a horse's true odds in winning a race and help the public to decide who to bet? Instead he gives an overinflated price that would make every nickel and dime bettor hope would end up that high and bet on because even an idiot would know that it was wrong. Why 12 to 1 when he knew it would be way less?
Last night he had Ramona Hill at 5 to 1 in the morning line FOURTH FAVORITE behind Back of the Neck, Amigo Volo, and Beads in spite of the fact that she had won in 50.3 in the Miller from Post 10 and the boys who raced in the Dancer that same night could do no better than 52 flat. In HRU's Guru column Friday he specifically said that anyone who had the means to bet and get that 5 to 1 should do so because he expected her to be 2 to 1 at post. (she was less than that). So if Guru "knows" of places where you can bet the morning line who else does?
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He says he treats his horses well? What a joke lol caught hundreds of times with black boxes, positives and not to mention electrocuting and chasing one training with a weed whacker. The guy is cancer in the sport and he’s had many chances.. simple fact is he’s a low life that should never get a chance to train again .. even if he does the business is crumbling anyway so makes no difference
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I believe this post above should be moved to the Josh Marks post
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morning line is "supposedly" where the horses will go off at post time.... I say supposedly with tongue in cheek... For Ramona Hill to be 5-1 last night in the program... Brower off his rocker. She should be about 8-5 on the line for the final but Brower almost never goes below 5-2 at any time.
MAYBE BROWER IS TOO BUSY COOKING!!!!!!
GUY POSTS MEALS ON FACEBOOK, EMERIL GOT NOTHING ON BROWER
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Brower has posted violent threats online recently. Tread lightly.
He is someone to keep your eye on.
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I don't think ml is solid at big m. Doesn't matter to me - I just use it as a potential job indicator of where public $ might go. I actually like when ml guy has a horse 5-2 favorite that should be 5 or 6 to 1.
I like to play horizontals and think many bettors are unwilling to not use ml favorite in horizontals. As a bettor, I'd just as soon toss and take my chances with who I think is best. In my opinion, a bad ml adds some dead money to pool. Guy at woodbine is better than browser but not perfect. In 4th race trot tomorrow for example has the 9 ml favorite and not on either of my p5 or p4 plays. Henry jumped off 9 to drive horse to immediate inside. I think auciellos two horses on inside will compete for favoritism at post time.
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Bad morning lines both hurt and help in p3s 4s and 5s. Works both ways
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He makes the morning lines and bets on the races... ngc3
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I say no morning line . Figure it out handicap and bet .
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I like that idea. Especially nowadays when the only people left who bet on Harness usually have some sort of clue what it's all about.
Would still like to see a nation wide Exchange like New Jersey or fixed options like down under.
Nothing worse than burning money on horses that take a late hit and go to 1 to 5 or worse when you never would have bet a penny at that price and it happens so late you can't cancel.
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I say no morning line . Figure it out handicap and bet .
I like it alot tmbz1!!
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i would like to see the final odds before the race starts
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Morning line been under scrutiny since the beginning of time! Ulterior motives by individual in charge is always suspicious!
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I would agree that Morning Lines sometimes look off, but this happens at all tracks, including thoroughbreds.
I also dont believe its as easy as people think it is????? To me complaining about M.L.'s after the fact is close to Red Boarding????? (hindsight is 20/20)
Im not try to call anyone out, but lets see if anybody can find off M.L.'s for Friday or Saturday's card and post about it before it happens?????
Or start a contest thread where a race is picked a few days ahead of time and everyone picks what they think the finial odds will be for all 10 starters????? It's definitely not that easy.
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Im not try to call anyone out, but lets see if anybody can find off M.L.'s for Friday or Saturday's card and post about it before it happens?????
Ramona Hill to enter Hambletonian
So says owner Brad Grant. She's better than the boys .. will probably be the favorite.
Note that the prediction was made on Monday night July 27 before the morning line was posted.
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Note that the prediction was made on Monday night July 27 before the morning line was posted.
Fair enough, but we see a lot of owners/trainers that think more highly of the horses than true reality.
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I don't think ml is solid at big m. Doesn't matter to me - I just use it as a potential job indicator of where public $ might go. I actually like when ml guy has a horse 5-2 favorite that should be 5 or 6 to 1.
I like to play horizontals and think many bettors are unwilling to not use ml favorite in horizontals. As a bettor, I'd just as soon toss and take my chances with who I think is best. In my opinion, a bad ml adds some dead money to pool. Guy at woodbine is better than browser but not perfect. In 4th race trot tomorrow for example has the 9 ml favorite and not on either of my p5 or p4 plays. Henry jumped off 9 to drive horse to immediate inside. I think auciellos two horses on inside will compete for favoritism at post time.
Saw - I don't think theirs any redboarding going on here. Just people's opinion. The race I mentioned above at Mohawk turned out just as I predicted. The ml favorite ended up going off at 10-1. There were five horses more favored than the 9. The two auciellos horses were indeed the favorite and second choice.
Fact - this was a bad ml. And the guy at woodbine is way better than browser. If a slightly above average handicapper like me can see in advance how the odds are going to pan out then the guy paid to do it should do a better job.
I forgive the guy at Mohawk since as you say this is a tough gig and he's pretty close usually. But browser I don't. He sets a bad morning line.