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General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: Easy Irv on January 26, 2019, 04:29:03 PM

Title: Post 1 seven times in a row??
Post by: Easy Irv on January 26, 2019, 04:29:03 PM: The #1 horse at Freehold in the 12th race today has now drawn the #1 post 7 times in a row!!! How is that possible?
Title: Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
Post by: Fatboy on January 26, 2019, 04:38:48 PM: Quote from: Easy Irv on January 26, 2019, 04:29:03 PM
The #1 horse at Freehold in the 12th race today has now drawn the #1 post 7 times in a row!!! How is that possible?

EASIER TO SET ONE UP IF THAT ONE STARTS THERE
Title: Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
Post by: Equus Caballus on January 26, 2019, 04:39:13 PM: oh boy here we go again:

the condition clearl;y states
MAIDENS DRAW INSIDE

now there are 2 other maidens in the race
so maybe a 33.3% chance?
Title: Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
Post by: Fatboy on January 26, 2019, 05:01:20 PM: Quote from: Equus Caballus on January 26, 2019, 04:39:13 PM
oh boy here we go again:

the condition clearl;y states
MAIDENS DRAW INSIDE

now there are 2 other maidens in the race
so maybe a 33.3% chance?
tmbz1
Title: Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
Post by: Bacchus on January 26, 2019, 11:16:45 PM: Oh OK but the odds of that happening seven times in a row, assuming there are three maidens in every race, is still .045%
Title: Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
Post by: Equus Caballus on January 26, 2019, 11:39:12 PM: Quote from: Jersey ginzo on January 26, 2019, 11:16:45 PM
Oh OK but the odds of that happening seven times in a row, assuming there are three maidens in every race, is still .045%

yes correct 3 to the 7th power
Title: Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
Post by: Equus Caballus on January 26, 2019, 11:42:17 PM: Quote from: mastertrotter on January 26, 2019, 11:36:44 PM
The odds are 33% every time they draw, its not a parlay!

yes but he is saying 7 times CONSEQUENTLY
Title: Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
Post by: Calhoun on January 26, 2019, 11:53:58 PM: Quote from: Equus Caballus on January 26, 2019, 11:42:17 PM
CONSEQUENTLY
ngc3 ngc3
Title: Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
Post by: Equus Caballus on January 27, 2019, 12:40:59 AM: Quote from: Calhoun on January 26, 2019, 11:53:58 PM
ngc3 ngc3

oops

consecutively ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
Title: Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
Post by: Bacchus on January 27, 2019, 11:10:21 AM: Quote from: mastertrotter on January 27, 2019, 09:47:52 AM
You can't look at it that way, the odds of drawing the rail with the same entries on the next draw will be 33%. You can say the odds of him drawing the rail in the next 7 races might be that low though!

The gripe was that he drew the rail 7 times in a row - not that he drew the rail in this race as that would not be a quirk or Suspicious - as That happens at once in every draw - so the .045% probability was correct.
Title: Re: Post 1 seven times in a row??
Post by: bond on January 27, 2019, 11:27:26 AM: Quote from: Jersey ginzo on January 27, 2019, 11:10:21 AM
The gripe was that he drew the rail 7 times in a row - not that he drew the rail in this race as that would not be a quirk or Suspicious - as That happens at once in every draw - so the .045% probability was correct.
Was Joe Faraldo involved? ngc3