HORSEPLOP.COM
General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: Harness Stats on June 28, 2020, 03:32:28 PM
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I don't usually even look at Georgian Downs in Canada but they are having a couple of Gold 3yr Trots tonight so I thought I'd see if there was anything interesting as I usually only bet on Stakes and Opens.
What I saw amazed me. In every race the morning lines are totally out of whack. Line makers are supposed to make prices so they usually total about 125 percent to take into consideration takeout. In every race I looked at they totaled more than 150 percent in some cases 200 percent. Look at the 8th race for example. The morning line has a horse at even money, 2 to 1, 5/2, 3 to 1, 7/2, 4 to 1. and the "longshots" are 6 and 8 to 1
Who does those lines and how are they allowed to keep their job? Every horse in that race except for the even money is going to technically be an overlay. IMO it's a total disservice to bettors as the base they are starting with is fraudulent.
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That is what you are thinking about? ngc3
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I'm pointing out something that is just plain wrong and potentially harmful to bettors. If Brower made lines like that at Big M the whole site would be all over his ass for stupidity.
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Note to Harness Stats
Setting a morning line takes lots of talent...and time
We all use it as an indicator..for DD and Pick 3 Will Pays...looking for an out of line price
These people who set the ML..are not paid very well...and they are generally asked to do this as part of their MAINE duties
Just for fun..some time..take a couple of races out of the Overnight listing..your choice of which races,
and take a major track.
It is not easy to do..remember..you are trying to predict what the final odds will be.
About 10 years ago..I was at a Maine Fair.....entering a couple of horses.......and they had a deadline to print the program...and the guy who did the ML was a "no show"
The race office knew I liked to bet..asked me to do the Morning line and selections in each race. These should be different.
I spent 1 hour , just doing 10 races.......and if I was challenged to bet on my ML........There would be No Bet
The daily handle was around $ 100,000., so the odds in a race could vary from 4/5 to 50 to 1
From a marketing point of view...could you give someone a ML of 50 to 1 ??
Try it some time and let us know.....in advance the actual race
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All professional handicappers set odds on races they intend to bet on. Sure it takes time but that's what doing homework is all about.
What I'm saying is go look at Georgian Downs morning lines tonight and compare them to every other track in the world. I don't know if that linemaker does this every card or was just too lazy today.