HORSEPLOP.COM
General Category => Harness Racing => Topic started by: Barnet Garnsdale on February 15, 2020, 06:48:44 AM
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RACE 11 CARRYOVER $152,000 HI 5
https://woodbine.com/wp-content/uploads/pdfs/free_programs/Free_Program_WOH_2020-02-15.pdf
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tmbz1
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I still don't understand the need for this.
Frozen at $158K. Why?
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ICE is 100% correct
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mwins it all doesn't matter the boss of the drivers room Jamieson has it all figured out who wins and where the rest place. Every driver will get a piece of the winnings and that's a fact Jack.
ALL YOU HAVE TO KNOW IS THE BURNER PHONE NETWORK NUMBERS AND IF YOU AREN'T A MEMBER
(https://i.imgur.com/1WcnoDq.png)
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mwins it all doesn't matter the boss of the drivers room Jamieson has it all figured out who wins and where the rest place. Every driver will get a piece of the winnings and that's a fact Jack.
AND THE OWNERS GO ALONG WITH THEIR HORSES BEEIN USED TO FIX RACES? DO THEY GET A SLICE TOO? THATS ALOT OF WAYS TO SLICE THIS PIE.
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id love to see the 'back of the napkin' this advance race result is drawn up on...they need a few napkins to get a 12 horse race right.
and yes..all drivers get cut to do EXACTLY as they were told....translati on...."ondrej gois -stay the fuck on the rail when I, the 9-5 choice, coming like a freight train"
thosands of harness races drawn on back of napkins day(s) before...but all drivers dont get cut like they do in thes kind of carryover mandatories.
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IF I OWN A HORSE IN ONE OF THOSE RACES IM RATTIN ALL YOU FUCKERS OUT
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There was a fellow in Toronto a horse player and computer geek who always believed the H Five was the one race where the drivers and owners got a slice. From the day it was introduced he kept track of the class of races that frequently were used when the pot was getting up there. He also took note of the ownership and the trainers that always made up the High Five. He had it all on computer and he was a frequent single ticket holder as the pot was getting up there resulting in a new pot starting but never the big one the mandatory. One thing that made him believe that each owner got a piece was that once they won they went a long time even getting to a top 5 finish. He used to be at the track every night with his laptop but I haven't seen him for about 6 months. Someone who I know said that was what some others had said about this fellow it was an angle he devised.
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This is the guy you partner with on your "BLACK BOX" handicapping system?
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IF I OWN A HORSE IN ONE OF THOSE RACES IM RATTIN ALL YOU FUCKERS OUT
Tim says you're wrong.
hvc.1 hvc.1 hvc.1 hvc.1
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No, but someone more grown up and intelligent than you.
Agreed- he’s a belligerent bastard and a racist.
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That race tonight will be by far the most crooked harness race in the world for today
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Tough race to play. You can hit it but IMHO no question trainers/drivers have a feel for at least a few or more of the slots. I mean knowing who runs fifth is just as good as the same first. So, a good chunk of that "free" money is already spoken for IMHO.
I played Mohawk religiously from the mid -90s to last year.
Gave up last year after watching just one two many unexplainable suspicious drives. There's many examples, but the cams tux debacle comes up to mind.
Too bad, the track located at Mohawk but called Woodbine is a beautiful harness track.
Good luck if your playing.
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i dont see what all the fuss is about
sure i get there is $150 k "free"money going into the pool
but so what , if you hit you get a few hundred dollars more than normal
its not like the gulf stream rainbow 6 going to 12 million
there is no need to freeze it, they think people are spending 3 days handicapping one race, what a joke just run it as normal until the mandatory night and if it gets hit the night before so what
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Just need 2 or 3 short priced horses to take a tuck and find a blind switch
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trust me,there are at least 4 "DEAD HORSES" in the race,none of the 4 will finish in the top 5,"THEY KNOW" and we are guessing,passerooooooooo
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To me it’s very strange to do the mandatory payout with 150k in the pool. As far as the race goes, inside horses generally fair well in these events, rarely is a hole given at all.
This would appear to be the toughest of the bunch they’ve had so far
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lots of talk no picks 8 wins 1/2/5/11 auto tosses 8/479/47910/47910/3467910 good luck all
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OK.here's a pick.....8/4/5,6,7,10.
and then my phone number.
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Here is all you need men, ;D,good luck Breaking down the High-5 Mandatory Payout at Woodbine Mohawk Park
A free program is available here
Comments from the Drivers:
(1) Pointomygranson - Trevor Henry “I think he has a really good shot at winning that race when he is right he can compete at a level much higher than he is in Saturday”
(2) Ramblingamblinman - J Bradley Harris “It’s his first start back I’m expecting him to be short, this horse is known for his fast last quarters if they race up front is my best shot at seeing him on the board”
(3) Freddy Bear - Sylvain Filion
(4) Play Jet Ray - Bob McClure "He hasn’t been very effective since the trainer change. Probably ride the rail and hope for some racing luck."
(5) Darkest Secret - Doug McNair "I’ve never driven him before. Not sure what to expect?"
(6) Walter Mitty - Chris Christoforou "Locked in last start, had 9 hole, left hard got in to the rail then shuffled. He got home in 27:1, still had horse but no room."
(7) Dragon Time - Travis Cullen "He raced ok last week, but will have to be a lot better to win tonight."
(8) Foot Soldier - Jody Jamieson "Foot soldier raced a lot better than his line will show last week. He had pace at every stage and with any trip luck tonight, he can win"
(9) Peace Out Posse - Louis-Philippe Roy “Last week it was almost a full month that Peace Out Posse hasn’t raced. He had some steering issues which I believe will have been corrected by Moreau. I expect him to be a little better, post 9 hurts but there’s going to be a lot of action/traffic in that 11 horse field.”
(10) Dreamfair B J - Jonathan Drury "I like dreamfair bj in there. He’s dropping down in class and he’s versatile so the 10 hole shouldn’t bother him."
(11) Mach Code - James MacDonald “Mach Code qualified really strong on an off track and was well within himself. It is a really tough race and an absolutely awful post but maybe with some luck he can get a good chunk.”
My Thoughts on the Race:
The immediate thought that comes to mind when looking at this race is that both Pointomygranson (1) and Dreamfair B J (10) should hit the ticket. So I don't think I will spend much on combinations that don't include both of them.
The next thing that jumps out at me is that Walter Mitty (6) could provide some value if he can hit the ticket and if he ever managed to win the race, the ticket would pay very well, as I don't think many people will even use this horse- nevermind using him on top.
Next I look at Foot Soldier (8) who is leaving from a difficult post considering the 2 trailers. This horse is the biggest challenge for me, because I believe he can win and I can also imagine a scenario where he misses the ticket completely. Similarly, I believe Peace Out Posse (9) could end up anywhere on or off the board depending on trip.
Dragon Time (7) has only 1 win in his last 37 starts, but has finished 2nd 10 times. There is a good chance he will hit the ticket.
Ticket Structure:
There are a lot of ways you can try to structure a ticket for a high-5, some I feel are better than others. The most obvious method is a box, but as you can see it gets expensive quickly:
$0.20 5 Horse box = $24.00
$0.20 6 Horse box = $144.00
$0.20 7 Horse box = $512.00
The fact that many will play boxed tickets will produce value if you can find a horse outside of the top selections to sneak onto the ticket. The other common structure used will be a key on top with horses boxed below:
$0.20 Key Winner w/ 4 horses below = $4.80
$0.20 Key Winner w/ 5 horses below = $24.00
$0.20 Key Winner w/ 6 horses below = $72.00
This type of structure allows players to go much deeper for the 2nd - 5th positions at a greatly reduced cost, but of course with the tradeoff that they have to correctly select the winner.
Perhaps the most valuable insight I've learned is that there is no one size fits all ideal structure to a ticket- it really depends on the individual race for what will work best. Don't be afraid to do something out of the ordinary if your handicapping leads you a certain direction. Think you can nail down who will finish 5th? Play around that instead of keying a winner. In a paramutual game, you are rewarded for doing something different from the crowd (if you connect).
My Tickets:
$0.20 High5 Box 1,6,7,8,10 = $24
$0.20 High5 Box 1,6,7,9,10 = $24
$0.20 High5 1,10/1,10/6,8,9/6,7,8,9/ALL = $21.60
$0.20 High5 1,10/6,9/1,10/6,7,8,9/ALL = $14.40
$0.20 High5 1,8,10/1,8,10/1,8,10/ALL/ALL = $50.40
$2.00 High5 1/8/10/6,7,9/6,7,9 = $12
Total: $146.40
My tickets may change by post time as more information is gathered and changes are announced.
What to expect:
There is a very good chance the effective takeout rate will be negative- meaning there could be more money paid out than is wagered into the pool. If $525,000 in new money is wagered into the pool the effective takeout rate will be -14%.
It would take roughly $1,014,000 in new money wagered to reach a takeout rate of 0%, which seems unlikely based on recent mandatory payout days.
The payout will probably be $500+ for a $0.20 ticket, even if it is chalky. With a competitive 11 horse field and a cost of $11,088 to box 11 horses for 20 cents, there is potential for a massive score. But with that being said- there is often value here in logical combinations, since many will be playing large tickets trying to maximize chances of hitting.
Sylvain Filion has finished top 3 in each of the past 3 consecutive mandatory payout races (although he might be in a tough spot here). The drivers are well aware of the significance of this race for bettors, so be sure to note who rises to the occasion when pressure is added, and who doesn’t.
Good luck if you are playing tonight!
Posted by Ryan Clements
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Here is all you need men, ;D,good luck Breaking down the High-5 Mandatory Payout at Woodbine Mohawk Park
A free program is available here
Comments from the Drivers:
(1) Pointomygranson - Trevor Henry “I think he has a really good shot at winning that race when he is right he can compete at a level much higher than he is in Saturday”
(2) Ramblingamblinman - J Bradley Harris “It’s his first start back I’m expecting him to be short, this horse is known for his fast last quarters if they race up front is my best shot at seeing him on the board”
(3) Freddy Bear - Sylvain Filion
(4) Play Jet Ray - Bob McClure "He hasn’t been very effective since the trainer change. Probably ride the rail and hope for some racing luck."
(5) Darkest Secret - Doug McNair "I’ve never driven him before. Not sure what to expect?"
(6) Walter Mitty - Chris Christoforou "Locked in last start, had 9 hole, left hard got in to the rail then shuffled. He got home in 27:1, still had horse but no room."
(7) Dragon Time - Travis Cullen "He raced ok last week, but will have to be a lot better to win tonight."
(8) Foot Soldier - Jody Jamieson "Foot soldier raced a lot better than his line will show last week. He had pace at every stage and with any trip luck tonight, he can win"
(9) Peace Out Posse - Louis-Philippe Roy “Last week it was almost a full month that Peace Out Posse hasn’t raced. He had some steering issues which I believe will have been corrected by Moreau. I expect him to be a little better, post 9 hurts but there’s going to be a lot of action/traffic in that 11 horse field.”
(10) Dreamfair B J - Jonathan Drury "I like dreamfair bj in there. He’s dropping down in class and he’s versatile so the 10 hole shouldn’t bother him."
(11) Mach Code - James MacDonald “Mach Code qualified really strong on an off track and was well within himself. It is a really tough race and an absolutely awful post but maybe with some luck he can get a good chunk.”
My Thoughts on the Race:
The immediate thought that comes to mind when looking at this race is that both Pointomygranson (1) and Dreamfair B J (10) should hit the ticket. So I don't think I will spend much on combinations that don't include both of them.
The next thing that jumps out at me is that Walter Mitty (6) could provide some value if he can hit the ticket and if he ever managed to win the race, the ticket would pay very well, as I don't think many people will even use this horse- nevermind using him on top.
Next I look at Foot Soldier (8) who is leaving from a difficult post considering the 2 trailers. This horse is the biggest challenge for me, because I believe he can win and I can also imagine a scenario where he misses the ticket completely. Similarly, I believe Peace Out Posse (9) could end up anywhere on or off the board depending on trip.
Dragon Time (7) has only 1 win in his last 37 starts, but has finished 2nd 10 times. There is a good chance he will hit the ticket.
Ticket Structure:
There are a lot of ways you can try to structure a ticket for a high-5, some I feel are better than others. The most obvious method is a box, but as you can see it gets expensive quickly:
$0.20 5 Horse box = $24.00
$0.20 6 Horse box = $144.00
$0.20 7 Horse box = $512.00
The fact that many will play boxed tickets will produce value if you can find a horse outside of the top selections to sneak onto the ticket. The other common structure used will be a key on top with horses boxed below:
$0.20 Key Winner w/ 4 horses below = $4.80
$0.20 Key Winner w/ 5 horses below = $24.00
$0.20 Key Winner w/ 6 horses below = $72.00
This type of structure allows players to go much deeper for the 2nd - 5th positions at a greatly reduced cost, but of course with the tradeoff that they have to correctly select the winner.
Perhaps the most valuable insight I've learned is that there is no one size fits all ideal structure to a ticket- it really depends on the individual race for what will work best. Don't be afraid to do something out of the ordinary if your handicapping leads you a certain direction. Think you can nail down who will finish 5th? Play around that instead of keying a winner. In a paramutual game, you are rewarded for doing something different from the crowd (if you connect).
My Tickets:
$0.20 High5 Box 1,6,7,8,10 = $24
$0.20 High5 Box 1,6,7,9,10 = $24
$0.20 High5 1,10/1,10/6,8,9/6,7,8,9/ALL = $21.60
$0.20 High5 1,10/6,9/1,10/6,7,8,9/ALL = $14.40
$0.20 High5 1,8,10/1,8,10/1,8,10/ALL/ALL = $50.40
$2.00 High5 1/8/10/6,7,9/6,7,9 = $12
Total: $146.40
My tickets may change by post time as more information is gathered and changes are announced.
What to expect:
There is a very good chance the effective takeout rate will be negative- meaning there could be more money paid out than is wagered into the pool. If $525,000 in new money is wagered into the pool the effective takeout rate will be -14%.
It would take roughly $1,014,000 in new money wagered to reach a takeout rate of 0%, which seems unlikely based on recent mandatory payout days.
The payout will probably be $500+ for a $0.20 ticket, even if it is chalky. With a competitive 11 horse field and a cost of $11,088 to box 11 horses for 20 cents, there is potential for a massive score. But with that being said- there is often value here in logical combinations, since many will be playing large tickets trying to maximize chances of hitting.
Sylvain Filion has finished top 3 in each of the past 3 consecutive mandatory payout races (although he might be in a tough spot here). The drivers are well aware of the significance of this race for bettors, so be sure to note who rises to the occasion when pressure is added, and who doesn’t.
Good luck if you are playing tonight!
Posted by Ryan Clements
Wow! best post I've seen on 'Plop" for many years.
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got it off twitter tmbz1
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Wow! best post I've seen on 'Plop" for many years.
You're gonna put Barnyard Gardensnail out of a handicapping job
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20c base. $48 ticket.
9 w 4/5/7/8 w 4/5/7/8 w 1/4/5/7/8/10 w 1/3/4/5/6/7/8/10
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Chody stiff job what a shock
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Drivers give themselves a nice Valentine's Day gift.
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20c base. $48 ticket.
9 w 4/5/7/8 w 4/5/7/8 w 1/4/5/7/8/10 w 1/3/4/5/6/7/8/10
Nice try, It would be very hard to find the 2 in the 3rd spot!!!!!
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And that is why it paid $41k
Yes great race analysis from Ryan Clements, of course it was not even close so just dribble like most
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I'm waiting for someone to explain how the drivers, trainers, and owners were in on this one.
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I'm waiting for someone to explain how the drivers, trainers, and owners were in on this one.
YES AND HOW THE DOUGH WAS DISTRIBUTED tmbz1
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dough in big envelopes ;D tmbz1
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dough in big envelopes ;D tmbz1
WHO GOT SHUT OUT?
IMAGINE BEING IN A FIXED RACE AND HAVING NO CLUE ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
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WHO GOT SHUT OUT?
IMAGINE BEING IN A FIXED RACE AND HAVING NO CLUE ngc3 ngc3 ngc3
Does the name Gene Vallandingham ring a bell?
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Does the name Gene Vallandingham ring a bell?
AGREE ngc3 ngc3 ngc3 tmbz1
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Enlighten some of us younguns about this Gene reference.
GUY COULDNT WIN A REPLAY AND GOT BOATED HOME FOR ALL HIS WINS
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GUY COULDNT WIN A REPLAY tmbz1 ngc3
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GUY COULDNT WIN A REPLAY AND GOT BOATED HOME FOR ALL HIS WINS
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Enlighten some of us younguns about this Gene reference.
In the Daniel Maier, Ratcheford, et. al. race fixing case out of Cal-Expo, Vallandingham was so bad they knew he'd finish out of the number. They apparently kept him in the dark and then they'd boat him home on long number.
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Funny how Danny Maier is back in racing after admitting in court that he fixed races. Harness racing is so dead and corrupt.